NASCAR Cook Out 400 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
We got back to our winning ways this past Sunday at Darlington when heavily favored Tyler Reddick took home the checkered flag at +300 odds. Incredibly, it was Reddick’s fourth trip to victory lane already this season, and the third time in which he won from the top spot on our simulations. As we move on to Martinsville on Sunday for the Cook Out 400, we see an entirely different group of drivers expected to contend for the win.
While Reddick checks in at #11 on the initial simulation, it is drivers like Denny Hamlin and the Hendrick Motorpsorts trio of William Byron, Chase Elliott, and Kyle Larson that are expected frontrunners. Can Reddick pull a shocker and get win #5? Never say never, but Martinsville boasts a handicap-ability grade of A- on my scales, and this is not a track that typically bodes well for underdog bettors. Let’s take a closer look at what we should expect this weekend.
Martinsville is one of the smallest tracks on the circuit, at .526 miles around, and its shape genuinely resembles a paper clip. Much of what happens here revolves around track position, as drivers running out front can easily catch up to the back of the field in a short number of laps. Being able to hold the bottom of the track and taking care of brakes are the two most important things for crews when setting up the cars. You’ll see a lot of “bump & runs,” and for drivers who are the victims of such, being kicked out of line can often cost them numerous positions.
Even though Martinsville isn’t nearly as grueling physically as Darlington was last week for drivers, being packed tightly for 400 laps around this tight racing surface can be tough mentally. That said, with an A- handicap-ability grade, this venue hasn’t proven to be that tough on bettors, unless of course, they’ve gone against the grain lately. Of the last two seasons here, William Byron (2x), Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Blaney have taken home checkered flags.
Before digging into what to look for on Sunday, here’s a quick wrap up of what happened last week at Darlington, and how our simulation projections have fared in terms of betting results to date through six races.
Initial Darlington simulation winner: winner, Reddick (+3 unit) – NOW +3 unit for the season
Final Darlington Simulation winner: winner Reddick (+3 units) – NOW +30.5 units for the season
Final Darlington Simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: One loser, one winner -Reddick +300 – total return +2 units – NOW +30.5 units for the season
Final simulation top 3 Darlington projections: one winner, two losers, Reddick +105 – total return –0.95 units – NOW +5.1 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 Darlington projections: one winner, four losers, Reddick -225 – total return -3.2 units – Now +3.05 units for the season
Final simulation top 10 Phoenix projections: five losers, five winners, Reddick -600, Byron -190, Buescher -120, Blaney -140, Cindric +190 – total return -4.55 units – Now +0.15 units for the season
Pretty sound returns so far on the simulations for winners, top 3s and top 5s, with top 10s lagging behind a bit!
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter…
My personal top 5 Darlington predictions: one winner, four losers – Reddick -225 – total return -3.2 units – Now -7.4 units for the season
Top Darlington Longshots to win: six losers – total return -6 units – Now +34 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at Atlanta: Bell (19th), Elliott (15th), Logano (33rd) – Now 17 for 21 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10!
Clearly, it remains a VERY strong start to the 2026 season, continuing right where we left off back in November. We are now on a 16 for the last 34 races in picking outright winners on our final simulations. Had you played all of these, you would be up +70 units!
Looking ahead to Martinsville now on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the four races that have been run at this paper clip-shaped short track oval over the last two seasons. Typically, these tracks are all track position, handling, managing brakes, and clever pit decisions. Pit crews are very important in a race like this, and most cars do finish this race. Only 11 cars in the last four races have failed to do so.
Of the simulation factors, starting position and recent history at Martinsville have stood out more than the others. There is qualifying and practice on Saturday, and the former has proven to be far more important. That said, with what is currently a four-car breakaway at the top, I’d be surprised to see anyone other than that current tightly grouped Top 4 on the projections wind up on top. Here are the stats for the last four races at Martinsville for all active drivers that have raced here, with William Byron winning twice in that span:
Average STARTING POSITION last four races at Martinsville
1. Chase Elliott: 3.8
2. Kyle Larson: 4.3
3. Chase Briscoe: 7.3
4. Joey Logano: 7.3
5. William Byron: 8
…
30. AJ Allmendinger: 28
31. Shane Van Gisbergen: 28
32. Ricky Stenhouse: 29.3
33. Riley Herbst: 30
34. Cody Ware: 36
Average PRACTICE SPEED RANK last four races at Martinsville
1. Darrell Wallace: 6
2. Denny Hamlin: 6.5
3. Chase Elliott: 6.8
4. William Byron: 7.8
5. Christopher Bell: 8
…
30. Tyler Reddick: 25.5
31. Chris Buescher: 26.5
32. Zane Smith: 28.5
33. Ricky Stenhouse: 28.8
34. Riley Herbst: 29.5
Average RUNNING POSITION last four races at Martinsville
1. Chase Elliott: 4.5
2. Kyle Larson: 5
3. William Byron: 7.3
4. Denny Hamlin: 8.3
5. Ryan Blaney: 8.5
…
30. AJ AllmendingerJ: 26.5
31. Chris Buescher: 27.3
32. John Hunter Nemechek: 30
33. Riley Herbst: 33.5
34. Cody Ware: 34
Total FASTEST LAPS last four races at Martinsville
1. Chase Elliott: 201
2. William Byron: 166
3. Ryan Blaney: 132
4. Kyle Larson: 119
5. Denny Hamlin: 117
…
30. AJ Allmendinger: 4
31. Cole Custer: 1
32. John Hunter Nemechek: 1
33. Cody Ware: 1
34. Erik Jones: 0
Average DRIVER RATING last four races at Martinsville
1. Chase Elliott: 123.1
2. Kyle Larson: 116.8
3. William Byron: 114.7
4. Denny Hamlin: 110.3
5. Ryan Blaney: 108.4
…
30. Ricky Stenhouse: 45.5
31. Chris Buescher: 45.2
32. John Hunter Nemechek: 37.4
33. Riley Herbst: 33.3
34. Cody Ware: 29.8
Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last four races at Martinsville
1. Kyle Larson: 451.5
2. Chase Elliott: 439.5
3. Joey Logano: 421
4. Ryan Blaney: 394
5. William Byron: 392
…
30. Ricky Stenhouse: 11.5
31. John Hunter Nemechek: 8
32. AJ Allmendinger: 7
33. Riley Herbst: 3.5
34. Cody Ware: 0
Best AVERAGE FINISH last four races at Martinsville
1. Chase Elliott: 3
2. Kyle Larson: 3.8
3. Ryan Blaney: 4.8
4. William Byron: 7.5
5. Joey Logano: 8
…
30. Cole Custer: 25.5
31. AJ Allmendinger: 25.5
32. John Hunter Nemechek: 28.5
33. Cody Ware: 31.5
34. Riley Herbst: 34
With those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers at Martinsville are (and track designation), in order, are Elliott, Hamlin, Larson, Byron, and Blaney. In terms of Track Designation ratings, the top guys are Hamlin, Byron, Bleny, Bell, and Logano. And finally, for recent ratings, the top 5 are Larson, Reddick, Blaney, Bell, and Briscoe. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the VSiN.com website by navigating under the SPORTS tab to AUTO RACING, then to NASCAR HUB.
The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after practice & qualifying, which is set for 12:30 p.m. ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit after P&Q), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Larson, Elliott, Hamlin, Blaney, Logano
Top underdogs to consider (+1000 or better): Logano, Wallace, Chastain
Favorites to struggle: Reddick, Keselowski, Buescher
The 400-lap event at Martinsville is set for 3:41 p.m. ET on Sunday, the 29th of March.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds, and much, much more.
