NASCAR DuraMAX Grand Prix Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
Coming off our first final simulation win of the season with Tyler Reddick taking the checkered flag in Atlanta at 20-1, the NASCAR Cup Series heads west to the great state of Texas for its first road course event of the season, the DuraMAX Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas. NASCAR has been coming here since the 2021 season, and we have seen five different winners, all active drivers aiming to be the first multi-winner at COTA. However, there is one huge road racing ace that has yet to find his way to the winner’s circle at this facility: Shane Van Gisbergen, who dominated the series road events in 2025. He is a MASSIVE favorite to win on Sunday, with a price of +120 to reach victory lane according to odds makers at DraftKings. His Trackhouse Racing rookie teammate Connor Zilisch is next in line at +350. No one else is better than +900. Can the other drivers make a run at it Sunday, or is it essentially Trackhouse vs. the Field?
COTA is marked by its hills, twists, and turns. It is the closest thing to a European Formula 1 track on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit. It is 2.4 miles in length and features 12 turns and is located in Austin, TX. Naturally, this course, as well as every other road course in the series, requires an entirely different set of skills than the ovals that most of the races are on. That is why a driver like Van Gisbergen, an accomplished Australian road ace, can build a streak of five road course wins in a row, as he did in the 2025 season. However, his best finish at COTA so far has been sixth place, last year. Does that give the rest of the field reason for optimism heading into this weekend? It might be the only reason.
Historically, the races at COTA have been a lot more predictable than the two tracks we have visited thus far. In fact, the Circuit of the Americas gets a handicap-ability grade of B on my scale. In other words, when my final simulation is posted on Saturday, typically the projections are trustworthy for basing your wagers on.
Before we dig into some of the key stats and what to look for in Sunday’s DuraMAX 400, I want to update the records of the projections for the season to date. Of course, the highlight of the simulation last week was pegging Tyler Reddick as the winner at 20-1. I had him once again in my personal top longshots picks as well.
Here are the detailed results for the season after Daytona and Atlanta simulations/predictions:
Initial Atlanta simulation winner: Ryan Blaney (-1 unit) – NOW -2 units for the season
Final Simulation winner: Tyler Reddick (+20 units) – NOW +19 units for the season
Final simulation top 3 Atlanta projections: two losers, one winner, Reddick +550 – total return +3.5 units – NOW +4.5 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 Atlanta projections: four losers, one winner, Reddick +260 – total return -1.4 units – Now +0.05 units for the season
Final simulation top 10 Atlanta projections: seven losers, three winners, Reddick -105, Wallace +120, Blaney -200 – total return -3.8 units – Now -2.95 units for the season
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter…
My personal top 5 Atlanta predictions: five losers – total return -5 units – Now -7.35 units for the season
Top Atlanta Longshots to win: three losers, one winner, Reddick +2000 – total return +17 units – Now +53 units for the season!
Favorites to struggle at Atlanta: Larson (32nd), Bell (21st), Hamlin (13th) – Now 7 for 7 for the season picking favored drivers to finish outside of the top 10!
I would consider what has happened thus far at Daytona and Atlanta a very strong start to the season, especially considering that those are two of the most unpredictable tracks on the circuit. Again, historically speaking, COTA has been a lot more predictable.
Looking ahead to COTA now on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the four races that have been run at this road course in the Next Gen car. Like most road courses, it is always best to be running out front, and thus qualifying and practice speeds play as the most important simulation factors here. Thus, keep a close eye on what happens Saturday afternoon at the track. Of course, if you miss it, don’t fret, those results will be entered into the final simulation projections. Here are the stats for the L4 races at COTA for all active drivers who have raced here:
Average STARTING POSITION the last four years at COTA
1. Tyler Reddick: 2.5
2. Daniel Suarez: 7.75
3. Chase Elliott: 8
4. Shane Van Gisbergen: 9
5. William Byron 10.25
…
32. Brad Keselowski: 29.5
33. Riley Herbst: 31
34. Josh Berry: 33
35. Ty Dillon: 33.67
36. Cody Ware: 36.33
Average PRACTICE SPEED RANK the last four years at COTA
1. Connor Zilisch: 3
2. Shane Van Gisbergen: 5.5
3. Ross Chastain: 6.5
4. Kyle Larson: 7.75
5. Alex Bowman: 7.75
…
32. Erik Jones: 29.5
33. Ty Dillon: 30
34. Zane Smith: 31
35. Josh Berry: 32.5
36. Cody Ware: 38
Average RUNNING POSITION the last four years at COTA
1. Tyler Reddick: 5
2. William Byron: 6.5
3. Ross Chastain: 7.75
4. Kyle Busch: 8.5
5. AJ Allmendinger: 9.25
…
32. John Hunter Nemechek: 26.5
33. Ty Dillon: 29.33
34. Josh Berry: 30
35. Cody Ware: 31
36. Connor Zilisch: 32
Average DRIVER RATING the last four years at COTA
1. Tyler Reddick: 121.1
2. William Byron: 119.75
3. Ross Chastain: 112.375
4. Alex Bowman: 102.85
5. Kyle Busch: 99.725
…
32. Brad Keselowski: 50.95
33. John Hunter Nemechek: 46.95
34. Ty Dillon: 39.93
35. Josh Berry: 34.35
36. Cody Ware: 33.43
Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last four years at COTA
1. Tyler Reddick: 74.25
2. William Byron: 68
3. Ross Chastain: 67.5
4. Kyle Busch: 66.25
5. AJ Allmendinger: 64.75
…
32. Zane Smith: 6
33. Josh Berry: 5
34. Riley Herbst: 2
35. Ty Dillon: 2
36. Cody Ware: 0.67
Best AVERAGE FINISH last four years at COTA
1. Tyler Reddick: 3.5
2. Alex Bowman: 4.5
3. William Byron: 5
4. Ross Chastain: 6
5. Chase Elliott: 8
…
32. Ryan Preece: 29.67
33. Daniel Suarez: 29.75
34. Josh Berry: 31
35. Ty Dillon: 31.33
36. Connor Zilisch: 37
With those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers at COTA track, in order, are Byron, Reddick, Chastain, Busch, and Bell. For track designation ratings (road courses), the order is SVG, Bell, Briscoe, Buescher, and Byron. In terms of recent ratings, the top five are Briscoe, Bell, Larson, Hamlin, and Blaney. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on VSiN.com by navigating under the SPORTS tab to AUTO RACING, then to NASCAR HUB.
The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after qualifying, which is set for 12:00 p.m. ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit after qualifying), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Shane Van Gisbergen (+120), Christopher Bell (+900), Tyler Reddick (+1600), Chase Briscoe (+2000), Kyle Larson (+1600)
Top longshots (+1600 or higher): Tyler Reddick (+1600), Chase Briscoe (+2000), Kyle Larson (+1600), Kyle Busch (+2800), Ross Chastain (+2800)
Favorites to struggle: Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Bubba Wallace
The 95-lap event at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, TX, is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, the 1st of March.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds, and much, much more.
