NASCAR Food City 500 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
Sometimes it’s good to get away from things for a break. That said, even though it was nice to spend the Easter holiday with family on Sunday, I was not eager to take a break from NASCAR. Why? Well, our NASCAR simulations have been fantastic this season, and when we last left off at Martinsville in late March, we were accurately pegging nine of the top 10 finishers. That earned us +7.75 units of profit alone. Those of you who read my preview article for the Cook Out 400 shouldn’t have been surprised, as I shared that Martinsville boasted a handicap-ability grade of A-, meaning it was typically very predictable. As we pick it back up this weekend for the annual running of the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway, we find a tight race at the top with Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson expected to compete fiercely for the win, with Denny Hamlin the closest challenger.
Not long ago, races at Bristol were must-watch events on the NASCAR schedule. That enthusiasm has waned a bit in recent years as the action has shifted from what was a lot of intense multi-lane racing, which featured a lot of beating and banging, to single-groove style events in which the only regular passes made seem to be front-runners going past lapped cars.
There is hope that track compound and new Goodyear racing tires will improve things for this race, but until that is proven, we need to look at it as status quo. As such, Bristol boasts a handicap-ability grade of B, thus bringing a relatively strong level of predictability. For the record, when I last adjusted the grades a few years ago, Bristol was a C-, so there has been significant improvement for bettors relying on statistical methods for handicapping races. The oval track is one of the smallest on the circuit at 0.533 miles, and the banking is severe at 24-28 degrees, so this combination leads to tighter racing than usual, which can lend itself to chaos. Of the last two seasons here, Kyle Larson (twice), Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell have taken home checkered flags.
Before digging into what to look for on Sunday, here’s a quick wrap-up of what happened two weeks ago at Martinsville, and how our simulation projections have fared in terms of betting results to date through seven races.
Initial Martinsville simulation winner: loser Hamlin second (-1 units) – NOW +2 units for the season
Final Martinsville simulation winner: loser Hamlin second (-1 units) – NOW +29.5 units for the season
Final Martinsville Simulation Top 2 drivers To Win: Two losers – total return -2 units – NOW +28.5 units for the season
Final simulation top 3 Martinsville projections: one winner, two losers, Hamlin +165 – total return –0.35 units – NOW +4.75 units for the season
Final simulation top 5 Martinsville projections: three winners, two losers, Hamlin -135, Byron +150, Elliott +150 – total return +1.65 units – Now +4.7 units for the season
Final simulation top 10 Phoenix projections: one loser (Wallace), nine winners, Elliott -245, Hamlin -360, Logano -175, Gibbs -175, Byron -250, Blaney -360, Bell -175, Larson -285, Berry +130 – total return +7.75 units – Now +7.9 units for the season
Very sound returns so far on the simulations for winners, top-3s, top-5s and top-10s!
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter…
My personal top 5 Martinsville predictions: two winners, three losers – Hamlin -135, Elliott +150 – total return -0.5 units – Now -7.9 units for the season
Top Martinsville long shots to win: three losers – total return -3 units – Now +31 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at Martinsville: Briscoe (14th), Buescher (19th), Busch (24th) – Now 20-for-24 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10!
Clearly, it remains a VERY strong start to the 2026 season, continuing right where we left off in November. We are 16 for the last 35 races in picking outright winners on our final simulations. Had you played all of these, you would be up +69 units! While we didn’t peg the outright winner at Martinsville, Elliott came from our fourth spot, and projected winner Hamlin was second.
Looking ahead to Bristol now on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the four races that have been run at this high-banked concrete short-track oval over the last two seasons. Typically, these tracks are all about track position and handling, and of late, long run speed and pit stop speed/strategy have grown in importance. Only 11 cars in the last four races have failed to run less than 90% of the laps in those respective races. Of the simulation factors, recent history at Bristol and recent momentum have stood out more than the others. There is qualifying and practice on Saturday, and the former has proven to be more important. That said, with what is currently a three-car breakaway at the top, I’d be surprised to see anyone other than that current tightly grouped top 3 on the projections wind up on top. Here are the stats for the last four races at Bristol for all active drivers that have raced here, with Kyle Larson winning twice in that span:
Average STARTING POSITION last four races at Bristol
1. Kyle Larson: 5
2. Denny Hamlin: 5.25
3. Ryan Blaney: 7.5
4. Christopher Bell: 8.5
5. Ty Gibbs: 10.5
…
31. Cole Custer: 29.5
32. Daniel Suarez: 30.25
33. Shane Van Gisbergen: 32
34. Cody Ware: 34
35. Chad Finchum: 39
Average PRACTICE SPEED RANK last four races at Bristol
1. Ryan Blaney: 1.75
2. Chase Elliott: 8.5
3. Darrell Wallace: 10.75
4. Michael McDowell: 10.75
5. Christopher Bell: 12.25
…
31. Ty Dillon: 29.5
32. Shane Van Gisbergen: 29.5
33. Josh Berry: 33.25
34. Cody Ware: 37
35. Chad Finchum: 39
Average RUNNING POSITION last four races at Bristol
1. Christopher Bell: 7
2. Denny Hamlin: 7.25
3. Ty Gibbs: 8.25
4. Ryan Blaney: 8.5
5. Kyle Larson: 9
…
31. Daniel Suarez: 28.75
32. Cole Custer: 34
33. Shane Van Gisbergen: 34.5
34. Cody Ware: 35.5
35. Chad Finchum: 37
Total COMPLETED LAPS last four races at Bristol
1. Christopher Bell: 1999
2. Ty Gibbs: 1998
3. Ryan Blaney: 1998
4. Chase Briscoe: 1998
5. Ross Chastain: 1997
…
31. Ty Dillon: 991
32. Cody Ware: 989
33. Cole Custer: 983
34. Shane Van Gisbergen: 705
35. Chad Finchum: 458
Average DRIVER RATING last four races at Bristol
1. Kyle Larson: 116.075
2. Denny Hamlin: 110.525
3. Ty Gibbs: 107.025
4. Christopher Bell: 106.55
5. Ryan Blaney: 102
…
31. Daniel Suarez: 40.675
32. Shane Van Gisbergen: 38.4
33. Cole Custer: 35.1
34. Cody Ware: 30.05
35. Chad Finchum: 27
Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last four races at Bristol
1. Christopher Bell: 457.5
2. Denny Hamlin: 453.5
3. Ryan Blaney: 438.25
4. Ty Gibbs: 430.75
5. Chase Briscoe: 410.75
…
31. Herbst Riley: 18
32. Custer Cole: 0.5
33. Van Gisbergen Shane: 0
34. Ware Cody: 0
35. Finchum Chad: 0
Best AVERAGE FINISH last four races at Bristol
1. Christopher Bell: 6
2. Ryan Blaney: 7.75
3. Chase Briscoe: 8.5
4. Ty Gibbs: 9.25
5. Denny Hamlin: 9.5
…
31. Daniel Suarez: 29.75
32. Cole Custer: 31
33. Shane Van Gisbergen: 32
34. Cody Ware: 32.5
35. Chad Finchum: 35
With those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers at Bristol are, in order, Larson, Blaney, Bell, Gibbs and Hamlin. In terms of Track Designation ratings, the top guys are Briscoe, Byron, Hamlin, Reddick and Wallace. And finally, for recent ratings, the top 5 are Blaney, Reddick, Larson, Hamlin and Byron. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now on the NASCAR HUB at VSiN.com.
The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after practice and qualifying, which is set for 4:30 p.m. ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit after P&Q), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Larson, Blaney, Hamlin, Bell, Gibbs
Top underdogs to consider (+1500 or more): Keselowski, Wallace, Hocevar
Favorites to struggle: Reddick, Cindric, Logano, Buescher
The 500-lap event at Bristol is set for 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 12.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds, and much, much more.
