NASCAR Goodyear 400 Predictions: Top 5 Picks and Best Long Shots:
While we did lose our three-race outright simulation winning streak last week at Las Vegas, it still proved to be an outstanding week for our projections, with Denny Hamlin winning the race as our No. 2 projected driver and eight of 10 drivers finishing in our projected top 10. Those results will help our season-long numbers and keep our early-season momentum going as we head to Darlington this week for the running of the Goodyear 400. The odds for the race suggest that there are seven top contenders to consider for race-winning honors on Sunday, led by Hamlin at +550, but my initial simulation shows a bit of a narrower top group with three-time 2026 winner Tyler Reddick owning a slight edge for the top spot. Let’s take a closer look at what we should expect this weekend.
Although we’ve been to a few ovals already, Darlington differs from all of them in that it is a 1.366-mile egg-shaped oval that is unique on the circuit. I term it an “intermediate speedway,” and it has no similar designation tracks. What makes it unique? Well, mostly its highly abrasive asphalt surface, known for causing quick tire wear, and for its four different corners, making turns treacherous. Taking 400 miles around this track is as grueling as it gets in NASCAR, physically and mentally. As such, Darlington has been given a pair of daunting nicknames that can haunt even the most experienced drivers. The first is the “Lady in Black” because the asphalt is black and because most cars end up leaving the track with black “Darlington Stripes” on their outside door panels from rubbing the wall coming out of Turn 4. The other nickname is one that is more obvious … the track “Too Tough to Tame.” Surviving races at Darlington with a car intact is one thing, winning is a whole other animal, and only one driver has done it more than once in the eight Next Gen races run here since 2022 — Chase Briscoe.
For the record, in terms of handicap-ability grades, Darlington gets a C+, making it one of the tracks where you can get some favorable winnings if you pick the right drivers. That is where my simulations come in.
Before digging into what to look for on Sunday, here’s a quick wrap-up of what happened at Las Vegas and how our simulation projections have fared in terms of betting results to date through five races.
Initial Las Vegas simulation winner: Loser (-1 unit) – NOW +0 unit for the season
Final Las Vegas simulation winner: Loser (-1 units) – NOW +27.5 units for the season
Final Las Vegas simulation Top 2 drivers to win: One loser, one winner -Hamlin (+7 units) – NOW +28.5 units for the season
Final simulation top 3 Las Vegas projections: one winner, two losers, Hamlin +180 – total return -0.2 units – NOW +6.05 units for the season
Final simulation top-5 Las Vegas projections: two winners, three losers, Bell -105, Hamlin -105 – total return -1.3 units – Now +6.25 units for the season
Final simulation top-10 Phoenix projections: two losers, eight winners, Bell -275, Larson -350, Hamlin -275, Byron -225, Elliott -175, Wallace +135, Briscoe -175, Gibbs +165 – total return +5 units – Now +4.7 units for the season
A five-unit return on top-10 picks is outstanding if you ask me, and to go even deeper as to how strong the Las Vegas projections wound up being, besides eight out of the top 10, we also pegged 11 of the top 13!
Now for my final personal picks, which are published each race day in the VSiN Email Newsletter …
My personal top-5 Las Vegas predictions: three winners, two losers – Bell -105, Byron +115, Hamlin -105- total return +1.15 units – Now -4.2 units for the season
Top Las Vegas long shots to win: four losers – total return -4 units – Now +40 units for the season
Favorites to struggle at Atlanta: Elliott (2nd), Keselowski (10th), Logano (15th) – Now 14 for 18 for the season picking usual contending drivers to finish outside of the top 10
Clearly, it remains a very strong start to the 2026 season. Looking ahead to Darlington on Sunday, I have dug out the stats for the four races that have been run at this intermediate egg-shaped asphalt oval over the last two seasons. Typically, these tracks are all about speed, handling and managing tire wear. Pit crews are very important in a race like this, as, for as grueling as the races can be, there typically aren’t a whole lot of cautions, only around seven per race over the last four, which includes two stage cautions each time out. Of the simulation factors, only one has stood out more than the others in recent races, that being recent performance. In other words, the drivers who go into Darlington with momentum typically leave with it; those who don’t tend to struggle. There is qualifying and practice on Saturday, and those will change things on the final simulation, although I’d be very surprised to see anyone other than the current tightly grouped top 4 on the projections wind up on top. Here are the stats for the last four races at Darlington for all active drivers who have raced here, with Chase Briscoe winning twice in that span:
Average STARTING POSITION last four races at Darlington
1. Tyler Reddick: 4.5
2. Chase Briscoe: 5.5
3. Darrell Wallace: 5.5
4. William Byron: 6.25
5. Denny Hamlin: 6.25
…
32. Shane Van Gisbergen: 30
33. Noah Gragson: 31.25
34. Riley Herbst: 32.5
35. Cody Ware: 35.5
36. Timmy Hill: 37.5
Average PRACTICE SPEED RANK last four races at Darlington
1. Erik Jones: 6.25
2. Ty Gibbs: 7.5
3. William Byron: 8
4. Ricky Stenhouse: 9.25
5. Carson Hocevar: 10
…
32. Alex Bowman: 27
33. Cody Ware: 31
34. Cole Custer: 33
35. Shane Van Gisbergen: 33.67
36. Timmy Hill: 37.5
Average RUNNING POSITION last four races at Darlington
1. Tyler Reddick: 5.25
2. William Byron: 7.5
3. Denny Hamlin: 7.75
4. Darrell Wallace: 9
5. Chase Briscoe: 9.25
…
32. Shane Van Gisbergen: 26.33
33. Ricky Stenhouse: 29.25
34. Riley Herbst: 31
35. Cody Ware: 32.5
36. Timmy Hill: 35
Total FASTEST LAPS last four races at Darlington
1. Tyler Reddick: 123
2. William Byron: 105
3. Chase Briscoe: 99
4. Ryan Blaney: 82
5. Denny Hamlin: 71
…
32. Joey Logano: 2
33. AJ Allmendinger: 1
34. Austin Cindric: 1
35. Cody Ware: 0
36. Timmy Hill: 0
Average DRIVER RATING last four races at Darlington
1. Tyler Reddick: 116.3
2. Denny Hamlin: 106.075
3. Chase Briscoe: 105.8
4. William Byron: 104.325
5. Darrell Wallace: 95.85
…
32. Shane Van Gisbergen: 45.9
33. Ricky Stenhouse: 41.05
34. Riley Herbst: 36.2
35. Cody Ware: 31.35
36. Timmy Hill: 26.5
Most AVG LAPS RUN in TOP 15 last four races at Darlington
1. Tyler Reddick: 317.5
2. William Byron: 295
3. Denny Hamlin: 294.75
4. Darrell Wallace: 282.75
5. Chris Buescher: 271.25
…
32. Cole Custer: 16
33. Ricky Stenhouse: 3.75
34. Cody Ware: 3.5
35. Timmy Hill: 2.5
36. Riley Herbst: 1
Best AVERAGE FINISH last four races at Darlington
1. Denny Hamlin: 4.75
2. Ross Chastain: 8.5
3. Chase Briscoe: 8.75
4. AJ Allmendinger: 11.5
5. Kyle Busch: 11.75
…
32. Shane Van Gisbergen: 26
33. Josh Berry: 27
34. Riley Herbst: 31
35. Cody Ware: 32
36. Timmy Hill: 35
With those stats in mind, my top-rated drivers at Darlington (and track designation), in order, are Larson, Reddick, Briscoe, Byron and Hamlin. In terms of recent ratings, the top 5 are Larson, Bell, Briscoe, Hamlin and Reddick. All of it goes into the making of my initial simulation, which can be seen now in the NASCAR HUB on VSiN.com.
The final simulation will be made available Saturday afternoon after practice and qualifying, which is set for 2:30 p.m. ET. That said, having to make my predictions at this point (which could change a bit after P&Q), I would go with the following:
Top 5: Kyle Larson, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe
Top underdogs to consider (+2000 or bigger): Ross Chastain, Bubba Wallace, Ty Gibbs, Kyle Busch, Carson Hocevar
Favorites to struggle: Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney
The 293-lap event at Darlington is set for 3 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Be sure to visit VSiN.com for this week’s full INITIAL SIMULATION. This is where you’ll find the sims all season long. While there, you can click on driver links for season stats and recent results, plus get current odds, and much, much more.
