Get the best VSiN news and information delivered to your inbox daily: Sign up for free.
VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen sets up tonight’s Commanders-Eagles game (8:15 p.m. ET):
Philadelphia is currently sitting atop the NFC East standings, but that’s because the team has one less loss and Washington has played one more game. This is also the first of two meetings between these teams, meaning the Commanders can really take control of this division by finding a way to win on the road. That puts a lot of pressure on the Eagles. But Philadelphia does come into this one on a five-game winning streak. The Eagles have also won three of their last four games by at least 20 points.
>>More on the game from Zach, including a prop bet he likes.
Dave “Dog or Pass” Tuley is coming off a 5-1 week, so let’s see what he has to say:
The advance point spread for this game last week was Eagles -3.5, and it hasn’t budged. That tells us the oddsmakers and the public still regard the Eagles as the better team, even without home-field advantage. I don’t see much of a difference as Philly has the edge on defense, allowing 17.9 points per game vs. 21.7 given up by Washington, but the Commanders average 29 points per game compared to 25.9 for the Eagles. I have this as pick ’em to win the game straight-up. So you know I love getting the “hook” at +3.5. This could very well come down to a field goal either way.
>>Tuley’s Takes on every game.
A few betting systems caught my eye while reading Steve Makinen’s NFL Analytics Report:
>Teams playing at home on Thursdays after winning at least their last four games outright have kept the momentum going with a 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS recprd (78.6%) in their last 14 tries.
>When the handle on Overs is 64% or higher, that majority has a 121-153 record (44.2%).
As Steve says:
This has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
>>More system matches from Steve.
Other TNF resources
>Matchup page: ATS records, advanced stats and prop analyzer.
>DK/Circa betting splits. As you can see from the graphic above, I am showing the Circa Sports splits for comparison. You can see updates here. Pro tip: Keep an eye on the Circa splits in the hour leading up to kickoff. There is a lot more volatility because of the big bets rolling in late.
>NFL picks page (for VSiN Pro subscribers).
QB updates: The Colts named Anthony Richardson as the starter for the rest of the season. . . . The Jags said Trevor Lawrence (left shoulder) won’t play Sunday vs. the Lions. . . . The Raiders name Gardner Minshew as their starter vs. the Dolphins.
Everything we do on Week 11 is posted here, including Best Bets from our experts.
More Thursday night football
Adam Burke has a recommendation on the only college football game of the evening: East Carolina (-14) vs. Tulsa (7:15 ET):
East Carolina is humming on offense ever since getting rid of coach Mike Houston, as they’ve scored 105 points over the last two games. They even had 28 points in the game against Army. As a result, this line has jumped up from -11 to -14, as nobody seems all that interested in backing Tulsa. DraftKings has even peaked at 14.5, which is something that we could see across most of the market by the time that the kickoff arrives.
Today in college basketball
Greg Peterson has posted his Best Bets for today’s menu.
Check our College Basketball home page around mid-morning for top plays from Adam Burke.
Here are other resources for you . . .
>Steve Makinen‘s daily power ratings (posted mid-morning).
>Greg’s Coast to Coast Hoops podcast on which he handicaps every game every day.
Quick Hits
NBA: Zach Cohen will post his Best Bets later today on our NBA page.
NHL: Look for Jonathan Davis‘ picks by mid-morning on our NHL page.
Boxing: Adam Burke sets up Friday’s Tyson-Paul fight.
UFC: Lou Finocchiaro has his picks for Saturday’s UFC 309 in New York, featuring Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic.
Horse Racing: 1/ST Bet handicapper Jeremy Plonk has picks for today’s Churchill Downs card. 1/ST Bet offers wagering on hundreds of races every day from across the country and around the world. Sign up at 1STBET.COM with promo code VSIN200 to claim a 20% rebate for your first 60 days, up to $200.
Want a more fun way to bet? Try KUTT, a P2P social betting platform that allows you to bet directly against other users on the outcome of sports, politics, pop culture, and more. Fully customizable odds, social features, and cash back on every single bet.. VSiN readers get a 10% deposit bonus with this link.
Still betting at -110? Sporttrade is changing that: -104 lines, high limits, and instant in-play betting. Download Sporttrade and use code VSIN to earn 10% cash back on each wager in your first week. Terms apply. 21+ and present in NJ, CO, IA, AZ and VA. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Need More Winning Picks? Join the 1000s of sports bettors who follow the experienced handicappers at Doc’s Sports with a Free $60 no obligation account. 12 experts and multiple text based betting systems such as Prop Shop and Consensus. Get your free trial at docsports.com
