Circa Million Week 16 Lines, Picks & Consensus


With only three weeks left in the NFL season, time is running out in the Circa Sports Million for those that have not yet made some money. We also saw the Circa Survivor field go from 4,080 entrants to just 16 in the quest for the $6 million top prize. These are stressful picks for those that are still vying for a prize to say the least.

COVID has thrown a lot of extra wrinkles into the mix for contestants in both contests as well and this week is no different, as the league has adjusted and altered protocols to avoid a scenario like what we had last week with games pushed back. There are a lot of moving parts for every NFL season, but this one has been especially challenging towards the end.


Let’s look at where things stand in both contests for Week 16.

Circa Survivor

When we first started looking at this year’s Circa Survivor contest, two weeks stood out. The “Thanksgiving Week” that covered the three games on Turkey Day and the “Christmas Week”, which covered 49ers vs. Titans, Browns vs. Packers and Colts vs. Cardinals in Week 16. Entrants were going to have to leave as many of those teams available and also hope that they picked the right squads to survive.

Well, three of the 16 entries that made it this far are already out because the Titans beat the 49ers on Thursday. Thirteen entries had the Titans available and only one opted to side with Tennessee. With Arizona’s loss, we’re down to nine Survivors. Had the Browns beaten the Packers, the Survivor would have been over.

Along with this “Christmas Week”, contestants still had to pick another team from the Sunday or Monday games to try and stay alive.

Here are the Sunday/Monday picks for the nine remaining entries:

Chargers 4

Eagles 3

Falcons 2

We’re talking about life-changing money, even in the case of a split pot, so we’ll see how things stand by the end of Week 16.

Circa Sports Million

Business as usual continued in the Circa Sports Million, but we did see more than a few entries wave the white flag on the season for this week. Those not in the running for a prize for the full season or the fourth quarter let the deadline slide without sending in picks.

Those that are in the running had some tough choices to make. Every pick is worth a lot of money now that only 15 more selections will be graded. With 75 of the 90 picks in the record books, the chance to make up ground is pretty much gone and the margin for error is virtually non-existent.

It could be a really special season for Hannibal Barca, whose -1 entry is first in the contest with 55 points and -2 entry is alone in second place with 54 points. Taco The Town is alone in third place with 52.5 points. Durbify, JJarvis117, Letter X, and MFC Inc are all tied for fourth with 52 points.

Hannibal Barca’s third entry is tied for 16th with 50 points as well, so we are really looking at some significant money for that person or group if things stand as they are. The top 50 plus ties get something for the full season and first place is worth $1 million, with $325,000 for second, $275,000 for third, $225,000 for fourth and $175,000 for fifth.

There is also a $100,000 prize for being the entry with the fewest correct picks to make every selection. Jiggy Jack has a three-point lead in that race with a record of 22-53.

For the fourth quarter, where the top prize is $171,750, there is a six-way tie at 10-0. There are 72 entries that are off to a solid 9-1 start in the final quarter. The next 15 picks will matter a whole lot to those contestants to say the least.

Here are the lines, pick counts and consensus for Week 16 (* denotes home):

1 49ers 193
2 Titans* (%plussign% 3) 163

3 Packers* 922 (consensus #5)
4 Browns (%plussign% 7) 435

5 Colts 813
6 Cardinals* (%plussign% 1) 1261 (consensus #3)

7 Bucs* 448
8 Panthers (%plussign% 10) 377

9 Eagles* 544
10 Giants (%plussign% 9.5) 234

11 Chargers 664
12 Texans* (%plussign% 10.5) 234

13 Falcons* 795
14 Lions (%plussign% 5.5) 429

15 Bengals* 1344 (consensus #1)
16 Ravens (%plussign% 3) 429

17 Rams 794
18 Vikings* (%plussign% 3) 585

19 Jaguars 336
20 Jets* (PK) 598

21 Patriots* 687
22 Bills (%plussign% 2) 974 (consensus #4)

23 Seahawks* 352
24 Bears (%plussign% 6.5) 362

25 Chiefs* 899
26 Steelers (%plussign% 7) 372

27 Broncos 490
28 Raiders* (PK) 678

29 Cowboys* 351
30 Washington (%plussign% 10.5) 454

31 Dolphins 1336 (consensus #2)
32 Saints (PK) 412

The top-five consensus is the Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills and Green Bay Packers..

Here are the picks for the top 10 entries:

Check for Contest Corner updates on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday from Dave Tuley as part of his daily Tuley’s Takes column.