College World Series Best Bets:
One of the main narratives leading up to the start of the College World Series on Friday will be the colossal failures of the SEC and ACC during the regional and super regional rounds. The group of eight in Omaha was supposed to consist of teams solely from those two conferences, as it was last year. Well, in the name of Murray State, that sure didn’t happen.
Instead of monopolizing the CWS, the SEC sends just two in Arkansas and LSU, while the ACC’s hopes rely solely on Louisville.
From a futures perspective, however, the SEC is still in a relatively good position. The Razorbacks and Tigers sit clearly atop the odds board. Even though the quantity isn’t there, the quality is. Look for major betting implications from the start since these two national championship contenders play in the opening game of Bracket 2. So one of them will be immediately shipped off to the losers bracket.
Louisville making the CWS was supposed to be a bonus for the ACC. North Carolina was going to be there as a legit contender, bringing Duke, Florida State and the Cardinals along for the ride. Instead, all but Louisville are back home licking their wounds after self-destructing in various ways during the super regionals. That led to vacancies in Omaha with a range of programs and their interesting storylines filling the spots.
Oregon State, overlooked because of its independent status, is now fourth on the odds board. The reason the Beavers are independents is that schools like Arizona and UCLA bailed on the Pac-12. The reward for those two programs is the prominence they brought to their new conferences, the Big 12 and Big Ten, respectively, by also getting to Omaha.
Mid-majors Coastal Carolina and Murray State are going to get the plucky underdog labels. It is not one the Chanticleers want nor deserve. The tournament so far has just reinforced their status as the best program outside the Power 4. The Racers, feel free to call them Cinderella.
Let’s take a deeper look at the eight-team field and some ideas regarding the revamped CWS odds board.
Realize most of the value has long been extracted, so if you are new to wagering on college baseball, next year carve out some units after the NCAA basketball tournament and jump aboard.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
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Tier 1 – Those holding futures tickets on these teams should feel great. The expectation when investing in these teams prior was to win it all, and they are positioned to do so.
Arkansas (+195) – The Razorbacks have the best combination of hitting and pitching of any team in Omaha and should win a title. Use whatever metrics you like the most; this team grades out as the team to beat. Clearly, the bookmakers feel that way.
While many of the predictions for the tournament have already gone astray, Arkansas’ stock keeps rising. That was evident in the two-game super regional sweep of rival Tennessee. The series had the feel of when the two best NFL teams play in the conference championship that turns out to be the de facto Super Bowl.
Hitting-wise, the Hogs scored nine runs in nine combined innings against the elite arms of Marcus Phillips and Liam Doyle. In total, the Razorbacks outscored the Volunteers 15-7.
The lineup, centered around Wehiwa Aloy, who has lived up to his billing during the postseason, is the deepest in the field.
Any concerns there were regarding ace Zach Root and Gabe Gaeckle out of the bullpen were alleviated by their outings against the Volunteers.
LSU (+230) – It took some time for the Tigers to look like a championship-caliber club against Little Rock. Then came the super regional against West Virginia, and the Mountaineers were gone in no time. Like Arkansas, LSU put up a big run differential in the super regional out outscoring WVU 28-14.
Both of the Tigers’ aces, Kade Anderson and Anthony Eyanson, got the wins. Having those two is what keeps LSU so close to Arkansas on the odds board. However, their final lines in the super regional might cause some concerns. Anderson went seven innings, giving up six earned runs, while Eyanson yielded five hits and four runs over five innings.
Pitching is so important for LSU since the offense is solid, just not the same level as the team that won it all in 2023. Also, pick a key offensive category (batting average, home runs, OB%, SLG%), and the Hogs outrank the Tigers.
LSU’s Omaha fortunes hinge on the power of Jared Jones. The slugging hitting first baseman and member of the 2023 title team has just one long ball this postseason.
Betting options for Tier 1: If you have a futures ticket on either one, hedging with the other right now isn’t the best move. The 2-1 odds don’t provide enough ROI or protection with so many games remaining in the CWS. It makes most sense to let a Hogs or LSU futures ticket ride. They are the best two teams in Omaha, so the initial decision to back either should remain a bettor’s prevailing wisdom.
For those dedicated to monetizing tickets, wait until your team (either LSU or Arkansas) is in an elimination game and then take the other side. That will start as soon as the second game. That first elimination game should be against Murray State based on the Racers’ current line against UCLA. If that is the case, a LSU or Arkansas bettor can let the ticket ride again, or take a little Murray State at which should be over +200 since they are +190 now against UCLA.
For those without a current position, it is best to play either team on a game-by-game basis. The futures odds are too thin. Yes, LSU provides a little more odds-wise, but they are definitely the second-best team behind Arkansas. Whatever team loses during Saturday night’s primetime matchup will then have a higher adjusted futures price.
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Tier 2 – Sure, there is a chance they could beat out an SEC team for a title. They are in the CWS because Vanderbilt, Texas and Georgia were beaten by dogs. UNC should have been the leading man for this group.
Oregon State (+650) – The 40-1 longshot we previously recommended is still alive. The Beavers’ independent status, which we said to use to your advantage, worked out as this team was better than Florida State, played at home, and still came with a cheap price to win their super regional. There is no better team prepared for travelling to another venue than the nomads from Corvallis. Opening CWS play as a favorite against Louisville is a benefit.
The Beavers’ top two arms, Dax Whitney and Ethan Kleinschmit, will help them go against the two guns Coastal Carolina will run out to the mound. Offensively though, Oregon State, behind Aiva Arquette and Gavin Turley, edges out the team – CCU – the bookmakers are leaning towards in that bracket. Watch Arquette – that is a young Manny Machado.
Coastal Carolina (+600) – The Chanticleers won it all in 2016 and can do it again with starting pitchers Jacob Morrison, Cam Flukey and Riley Eikhoff. In the batter’s box is where Coastal’s concerns lie, hitting just 66 home runs as a team. The long ball plays a major factor at Charles Schwab Field. Only two players, Blake Barthol (12) and Sebastian Alexander (10), reached double-digit HRs on the season.
Caden Bodine isn’t a power hitter, but the switch-hitting catcher at the top of the order gets on base (.466 OB%) and is a run creator. As good as Bodine is and just might be in Major League Baseball, what the Chanticleers can or can not do in Omaha will be based primarily on Morrison, the Sun Belt pitcher of the year, and the pitching contributions of Flukey and Eikhoff.
UCLA (+900) – The Bruins barely squeak into this tier. Still, we will put them there because of the star power Roch Cholowsky brings to Omaha. The Bruins have had an easy trip through both rounds, playing against weaker teams in Westwood.
Betting options for Tier 2: The issue with betting any of these three as a futures play now is the fact an SEC team should be awaiting them in the Bracket 2 final for UCLA, or the championship series for the other two. So wait until that championship series if OSU or Coastal gets there, because with Arkansas or LSU also there, the Bracket 1 winner will come with plus odds.
If you like the Bruins, wait until their second game to play them in a single-game wager against an SEC squad. The opening -300 against Murray State offers no value. An exacta for the final series including OSU or CCU is another option. When books post exactas, I will take an OSU – Arkansas final.
Oregon State is the best to wager on since it plays Louisville in Game One while Coastal gets Arizona. Bookmakers have made the Wildcats a big dog in that game, just like they did in the UNC series.
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Tier 3 – definitely not in the same class as the other two tiers. Still, it’s a small field and timely production from longer shots has been a consistent occurrence throughout the tournament.
Arizona (+1400)
Louisville (+1700)
Murray State (+4500)
All three of these teams belong together, even with the variance of odds. Undoubtedly, Arizona and Louisville are in a much better position than Murray State because they are in Bracket 1 away from the SEC boys.
It is hard to back Arizona because it took an epic collapse by UNC to allow the Wildcats to make the CWS. Not using any metrics, just the eye test for this team, they are in Omaha because of what appeared to be complacency by the Diamond Heels. Arizona won’t get that benefit anymore, especially in the first game against one of the Coastal Carolina aces.
One positive for Arizona backers is its star player, Brendan Summerhill, went just 3-13 at the plate, and they still pulled off the series upset. The Cardinals are back in Omaha for the first time since 2019 after beating Miami at home in the super regionals. The Cardinals are solid offensively (.305 batting average) but are still alive because Vanderbilt slipped up so badly in the regionals, and then they got to host Miami, who defeated Southern Mississippi.
The Racers are a great story for college baseball – their coach, Dan Skirka, has to mow the infield grass. The SEC coaches, Dave Van Horn and Jay Johnson, probably don’t even know where the mowers are stored at their luxurious home ballparks. Murray State is crashing this party because Duke based too much of its offense on home runs. The long ball has been kind to the Racers with Jonathan Hogart leading the way so far this postseason with eight.
Betting options for Tier 3: Those with a ticket on teams here are likely a fan or alumni. Certainly worth a fun bet for them. For the rest of the betting public, these teams are already plus dogs in all three games, play them there if you expect any more upsets.
