NCAA Baseball Super Regional Betting Preview
Prior to the super regionals, one of the primary storylines entering the regional round of the NCAA baseball tournament was the sport’s ascending role within the betting community. After all the upsets, and the amount of minus favorites that fell down early to move to a plus number that ended up winning, bettors got exactly what they wanted.
Six walk-off winners on Friday, all the games were available on ESPN+ and there was plenty of traction on X. Surprisingly, it was Evansville that won the Greenville Region, not No. 1 seeded East Carolina or Wake Forest, the early season favorite to win it all.
Connecticut, Oregon, West Virginia and Kansas State all emerged from the No. 3 seed line to win their regions.
K-State captured the Fayetteville region largely due to Southeast Missouri State eliminating the host Arkansas Razorbacks. That SEMO win against the 5th overall national seed is almost on par with what UMBC, Fairleigh Dickinson, and Saint Peter’s did during their historic NCAA basketball upsets.
Of the 16 teams moving on to the Super Regionals, not one is a No.2 seed. Ten No.1 seeds are still alive, joined by five No.3 seeds and the Purple Aces, the lone No.4 seed still standing.
The lack of No. 2 seeds (four made the Super Regionals in 2023) indicates how close all these are to one another regardless of placement.
Before anyone starts calling this the tournament of upsets, look at the adjusted College World Series futures board to see how it is still top-heavy with SEC favorites.
Tennessee (+270)
Texas A&M (+340)
Kentucky (+900)
North Carolina (+900)
Clemson (+1000)
Florida State (+1300)
Oregon State (+1300)
Virginia (+1400)
Georgia (+1400)
North Carolina State (+2300)
Florida (+3000)
West Virginia (+3500)
Kansas State (+5000)
Oregon (+5000)
Connecticut (+10000)
Evansville (+12000)
Let’s examine the tournament for VSiN readers as it moves to the Super Regional round, which begins June 7th and features a best-of-three series format.
A main point to remember when betting on any of the Super Regionals is how much of a role home-field advantage plays in college baseball. The host teams went 41-13 during the regional round.
King Kong v. Godzilla
The SEC entered the tournament as the sport’s best conference, with a record 11 teams in the field, including four of the top five national seeds. The ACC also deserved behemoth status, with eight teams making the field for the second straight year.
After the regional round, the SEC took a hit while the ACC continued to impress. Now, both conferences have five remaining schools, but according to Baseball America, the ACC had a slight numerical advantage during the regionals. The ACC had a better winning percentage than the SEC (.708 vs. .639).
Still, on the futures board, bookmakers predict that the national champion will be an SEC squad.
I have been clamoring all season for the books to hang some derivative numbers such as the SEC and ACC against the field, most wins per conference, etc. This would be similar to what the books do during the NCAA basketball tournament.
Perhaps the added attention to college baseball will lead to those numbers being available next season.
Expect to hear comparisons between Evansville and Oral Roberts last year and Fresno State in 2008, winning the CWS as a No.4 seed.
If you think the Purple Aces can duplicate the Bulldogs’ work from a couple decades ago, give me a call, I will book that play for you.
Knoxville Super Regional
Tennessee (-800)
Evansville (+480)
Game 1: June 7
Prior to the Knoxville Regional, I told Matt Youmans that the massive -330 on the Volunteers was still light and should be closer to -700. Tony Vitello’s squad barely broke a sweat winning that region easily. They are well rested while Evansville had to empty the tank to defeat East Carolina to move on to the Supers.
Once again, the $800 needed to win $100 on the Vols is lower than it should be. However, very few bettors can act on that number with profit in mind.
The best way to approach this Super Regional in advance would be to go against conventional thought and look at the under in the first game. Evansville has a legitimate No.1 in lefty Kenton Deverman who held East Carolina to just one run over 8 innings in his Game 1 (May 31st) start of the regionals.
Looking ahead: It would take another UMBC-like miracle to keep the Volunteers out of Omaha.
Remember though, a No.1 overall seed has only won this tournament once since 1999.
I plan on making plenty of Tennessee-related wagers during the remainder of the tournament, but not ones tied to the futures market.
Tallahassee Super Regional
Florida State (-320)
UConn (+235)
Game 1: June 7
FSU went 3-0 in the regionals with the culmination being a 12-4 drubbing of UCF. Connecticut won the Norman Regional by giving up just 9 runs in four games (Duke and Oklahoma).
This might be another possible contrarian play in Game 1. Look at the under because the totals have consistently been around/above 13 runs.
The Huskies showed they can keep a power conference team in check. Either Ian Cooke or Stephen Quigley will get the start for UConn. Both of these arms have a sub-4.00 ERA and were impressive in Norman.
Looking ahead: Should be close games but FSU is likely winning this Super Regional. The Seminoles, an older team acquired via the transfer portal, are available in the 14-1 range to win the CWS.
Charlottesville Super Regional
Virginia (-250)
Kansas State (+190)
Game 1: June 7
The Cavaliers are one of the best offensive teams alive in the field. Most of the knocks from this .335 batting team come when playing in Charlottesville.
The Wildcats’ Super Regional appearance is a result of top-seeded Arkansas once again faltering during postseason play and facing SEMO during the final game. K-State is the epitome of a solid club that doesn’t wow opponents either on the mound (5.43 ERA) or in the batter’s box (.273 batting average).
This is a large number to lay but for those who want some Super Regional action, the Cavs could be priced much higher. It can be matched with another Super Regional winner in a parlay for books that allow such a wager.
Looking ahead: There are going to be a number of connections made between K-State this year and TCU’s surprise CWS appearance in 2023.
UVA should make it two straight CWS appearances and three in four years.
Chapel Hill Super Regional
North Carolina (-250)
West Virginia (+190)
Game 1: June 7
UNC stayed alive by beating LSU 4-3 in a dramatic championship game this past Monday. WVU won the Tucson Regional, which many analysts called the deepest of the 16.
Both of these squads, with their sub 5.00 team ERAs in offensive conferences, primarily rely on pitching.
Tar Heels’ OF Vance Honeycutt is one of the best players you will see for the remainder of the tournament.
Looking ahead: Like UVA at the same price, this is a number that sounds square to take but worth it if a bettor has available units on hand. Look to parlay UNC with Virginia to win its Super Regional.
Lexington Super Regional
Kentucky (-128)
Oregon State (-102)
Game 1: June 8
Just as rival and neighbor Tennessee did, Kentucky breezed through the regionals. The Wildcats now have a much bigger challenge than the Vols as Oregon State (3-0 in regionals) comes to Lexington.
The Beavers had to wait a day to finally knock off UC Irvine in a suspended game. Then had a lengthy trip to make.
UK relies on a balanced team approach while the Beavers showcase Travis Bazzana, one of the top picks in the upcoming MLB draft.
There is good reason bookmakers have this as the most evenly priced Super Regional. Kentucky has been on a great run the past two seasons, but remains the only SEC school never to make a trip to Omaha.
UK’s lack of success during this round is likely why they are just shaded as the favorite.
Looking ahead: This Super Regional is one of the main reasons I bet college baseball futures so much. The tournament allows for chances to monetize futures tickets.
I am going to make a move out of Mike Palm’s repertoire and monetize the Oregon State 25-1 play we suggested early in the season. You know Palm, the Circa VP, who is to monetizing tickets what Richard Pryor is to stand-up comedy.
The Beavers are the best team in the West; however, that would make them the fourth-power ranked team in the SEC—behind the Wildcats.
The Kentucky odds lend themselves to a wager against an OSU 25-1 ticket. The bet doesn’t need a large stake to realize a profit. At the same time, there is plenty of room to give on the OSU end if the Beavers advance.
Athens Super Regional
Georgia (-130)
North Carolina State (+102)
Game 1: June 8
I see your Honeycutt and Bazzana and raise you Charlie Condon. The Bulldogs’ power-hitting third baseman is a must-watch TV and the likely top MLB draft pick.
With a veteran NC State team, this could be the ACC’s best chance to earn a ticket to Omaha at the expense of the rival SEC.
Looking ahead: I see tremendous value in Georgia. Take a close examination of how the Wolfpack swept through the Columbia Regional. They had to beat Bryant, an unmotivated South Carolina team that just fired its coach, and then James Madison—all wins that need to be put into context.
UGA is an offensive-first club that overcomes a mediocre pitching staff by scoring a lot of runs. They put up 27 runs over three regional games. At the same time, the Georgia pitching staff wasn’t pressed. Only one arm (Zach Harris) went six or more innings during the three games.
Clemson Super Regional
Clemson (-210)
Florida (+162)
Game 1: June 8
The Gators, just one game over .500 during the regular season, have momentum as they head to Clemson. There will be an interesting storyline as Florida coach Kevin O’Sullivan goes back to the school where he once was a key assistant.
The Tigers won back-to-back 4-3 games to start off their regional before downing Coastal Carolina 12-5 to advance.
When playing in front of those partying hard down the right field line at the Cajun Cafe, Clemson is a difficult team to beat. They are working on a 29-6 home record.
A key to this series will be the Gators bouncing back after five difficult games in the Stillwater Regional.
Looking ahead: The ACC looks to be the right side here, however, this is a -200+ line that lacks value.
College Station Super Regional
Texas A&M (-390)
Oregon (+265)
Game 1: June 8
Behind only Tennessee, the Aggies are the second-lowest favorite on the CWS futures board.
Unlike some of the other contenders, Texas A&M faced a little bit of a challenge during its regional action. Rival Texas took the Aggies to extra innings before the home team prevailed and then beat Louisiana in the final game.
The Texas A&M offense is led by another MLB draft prospect in Braden Montgomery. The two-way star went 6-for-15 with 5 RBIs during regional play.
Looking ahead: Even though all these home schools during the Super Regionals will have tremendous fan support, nobody will get it better than the Aggies in Blue Bell Park.
Change of pace for Oregon which made it through the Santa Barbara Regional dealing with the chill West Coast beach vibes.
Instead of laying a large number here, think about the Aggies on the futures board. The presence of Tennessee is pushing Texas A&M’s odds over 3-1. Half that number will disappear when the tournament moves to Omaha.
If chalk holds and the CWS final series is between Tennessee and Texas A&M, that futures ticket will come into play.
