Parlaying SEC Hosts in the NCAA Baseball Tournament:
Now that the NCAA college baseball tournament has earned your attention, here is a way to attack the opening regional rounds.
Consider parlaying some of the big favorite SEC hosts together to win their regions. DraftKings and ESPNBet make this available, while FanDuel says no to this option.
As a bettor, I rarely even consider parlays. There is a reason why books encourage them and gladly offer odds boosts. Particularly, I’m opposed to “pile on parlays” where bettors just keep adding on legs to reach a desirable or “juicy” final odds total.
However, with the current makeup of the regional rounds and what seems like another year of SEC dominance, parlays here offer value from a psychological and financial perspective.
First off, bettors should have fairly high confidence in general backing the host teams. Of the 16 regional brackets, 13 are minus favorites on DraftKings. Ole Miss (+105) and Southern Mississippi (+120) are the only outliers as favorites with plus odds. Florida (-115), of course out of the SEC, is the favorite in Conway, not host Coastal Carolina (+115).
From the financial standpoint of parlaying SEC regional favorites, the host school playing the No.4 seed to kick off the bracket is a massive advantage. The better team here usually doesn’t use its top pitcher since an arm further down the rotation should be good enough to knock off the low mid-major teams.
Meanwhile, the No.2 and No.3 seeds tend to go all out in their opening matchup since neither wants to go into the next game facing elimination. Whoever survives that game then gets the host team’s No.1 starter.
Based on their recent play, depth of pitching staff and offensive potential, Arkansas (-450), Auburn (-200), Georgia (-220), Vanderbilt (-275), Texas (-225), LSU (-420), Tennessee (-250) look to be well positioned to win their regionals.
Consider using these schools in various combinations of 2-team parlays. Sure, adding a third leg would pay a higher dividend but it invites some negative variance. Last year, five SEC schools hosted the regional round and one (Arkansas) was upset.
Here are some of the regional winning parlays and prices currently in my portfolio.
LSU & Vanderbilt (-147)
Tennessee & Vanderbilt (-111)
Texas & Auburn (+116)
Arkansas & Texas (-113)
Adding more legs and including some plus prices could make these plays possibly more lucrative, but that isn’t the goal here. Instead, these parlays are a way to leverage the belief in how much better the SEC teams are individually and collectively against the rest of the field.
In general, when betting college baseball, be ready to play a lot of favorites and lay the juice.
One bet along these lines is the -295 for the SEC to win the College World Series offered by FanDuel. Even at that number, value is present since it covers 13 teams or 20% of the entire field, including six of the top eight national seeds.
For those who want to zag while so many are zigging with the SEC, FanDuel is hanging +430 for any ACC team to win it all. That bet is a good option for those who think Robin will knock off Batman.
The conference’s top contender is UNC (+900), so the +430 is only about half of that total while getting eight more potential winners. If the Diamond Heels and/or another ACC team can advance after the first couple of games in Omaha, it creates the potential to monetize.
Going long
For those more interested in longshots, look at Western Kentucky (+470) to win the Oxford Regional. The 3rd-seeded Hilltoppers have the composition of a team that could knock off both host Mississippi and No.2 seed Georgia Tech (+180).
WKU is a veteran squad filled with JUCO transfers that have hit all season. Out of Conference USA, which also sent Dallas Baptist to the tournament, the Hilltoppers hit .315 with a .420 OB%. During the regular season, WKU beat Kentucky and lost in 10 innings by one run at Vanderbilt.
Also, Jack Bennett and Drew Whalen give the Hilltoppers multiple No.1 pitchers to rely on in their two opening games.
This is also a way to fade the Yellow Jackets, a team that entered Selection Monday with the expectation of hosting a regional only to learn they must hit the road.
