2023 NCAA tournament betting trends by conference

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For a variety of reasons, whether it’s matchups, motivations, or perceptions, the simple fact is that certain conferences match up well with others in certain types of games and line scenarios. This is much of the charm of the NCAA Tournament each year. A champion from one of the power leagues is usually a national title contender, while a bubble team from that same league is a potential upset victim. A mid-major with a gaudy record is always a popular Cinderella pick but can be overhyped by both bettors and oddsmakers. There are always plenty of scenarios like this that the most successful tournament bettors have their sights set on for when the action commences and the opening lines are released.

 

In this piece that readers request every year, I separate the various conferences in college basketball and determine their performance records in different tournament game situations of late. In addition, I provide a list of the teams from each league that will be playing in this year’s tournament and their opening matchups, to help you spot the best qualifying trends, on line and total ranges, round level of games, by seed numbers, and perhaps most importantly, how they fare against some of the other conferences.

Let’s get started with the ACC, annually one of the most successful leagues every year when it comes to the NCAAs.

ACC

Teams in the field/First matchup

DUKE (#5, EAST) vs. ORAL ROBERTS (#12-Summit)

MIAMI (#5, MIDWEST) vs. DRAKE (#12-Missouri Valley)

NC STATE (#11, SOUTH) vs. CREIGHTON (#6-Big East)

PITTSBURGH (#11, MIDWEST) vs. MISSISSIPPI ST (#11-SEC)

VIRGINIA (#4, SOUTH) vs. FURMAN (#13-Southern)

Trends

– Besides putting two teams in the Final Four in 2022, the ACC enjoyed a banner performance overall in last year’s tournament, 14-5 SU and 15-4 ATS (79%).

ACC teams have been most successful in the Final Four Round, going 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS (66.7%) since ’01.

– In the role of pick em’ or small underdog (up to 4.5 points), ACC teams are currently on a 12-3 ATS (80%) surge.

– ACC teams are just 28-46-1 ATS (37.8%) as favorites of 5 points or less in the NCAA’s since ’98.

– ACC teams are 34-3 SU but 12-25 ATS (32.4%) in their last 37 as double-digit tourney favorites.

– ACC teams playing as double-digit seeds are 14-6-1 ATS (70%) since 2012.

– #2 ACC seeds are on a brutal 11-28-1 ATS (28.2%) slide since ’01, however, Duke did go 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS a year ago.

– ACC teams are 16-4 SU but 1-19 ATS (5%) combined versus Atlantic Sun, Colonial Athletic, & Ohio Valley teams since ’01.

– ACC-Pac 12 tourney matchups have also gone UNDER on totals most often, 14-3-1 (82.4%) since ’03. ACC teams are on a 20-5 SU & 16-9 ATS (64%) tourney run in the last 25 against Pac 12 foes.

– In the 16 most recent NCAA tourney matchups between the ACC and Big East, OVER the total is 12-4 (75%).

– There have been eight tourney matchups since 2001 pitting ACC foes against one another…All eight went OVER the total (100%), producing 150 PPG on totals averaging 142.

America East

Teams in the field/First matchup

VERMONT (#15, EAST) vs. MARQUETTE (#2-Big East)

Trends

– Vermont’s ATS win versus Arkansas in 2022 ran the America East record in the NCAAs to 11-3 ATS (78.6%) since 2011.

– America East teams are 14-8-1 UNDER (63.6%) the total in NCAAs since ’03.

American Athletic

Teams in the field/First matchup

HOUSTON (#1, MIDWEST) vs. N KENTUCKY (#16-Horizon)

MEMPHIS (#8, EAST) vs. FLA ATLANTIC (#9-Conference USA)

Trends

– American Athletic teams are 12-4 UNDER the total (75%) in their last 16 tourney games as underdogs.

– In their last 25 tourney games versus power conference foes, American Athletic teams are 17-8 UNDER the total (68%).

– AAC teams have won their last 7 NCAA tourney games versus fellow mid-major teams ATS (100%).

– As seeds #7-#10, AAC teams have been dangerous lately, going 11-8 SU and 14-5 ATS (73.7%) in their last 19 tourney tries.

Atlantic 10

Teams in the field/First matchup

VA COMMONWEALTH (#12, WEST) vs. ST MARYS-CA (#5-West Coast)

Trends

– Atlantic 10 teams have won just two of their last 10 NCAA tourney games, both SU and ATS (20%).

– Underdogs are 10-3 ATS (76.9%) in the last 13 NCAA tourney games between Atlantic 10 and Big East.

– Favorites are on a 17-4 SU and 14-7 ATS (66.7%) surge in Atlantic 10 NCAA tourney games since 2015.

– Atlantic 10 teams are 19-6 SU and 14-7-4 ATS (66.7%) in their last 25 games as tournament favorites.

Atlantic Sun

Teams in the field/First matchup

KENNESAW ST (#14, MIDWEST) vs. XAVIER (#3-Big East)

Trends

– Atlantic Sun teams are on a 10-4 ATS (71.4%) run in NCAA tourney games since ’13, including 8-3 ATS (72.7%) versus major conferences, however, they have lost two in a row on both trends.

– Atlantic Sun teams are on 12-5 OVER (70.6%) the total run in NCAAs.

Big 12

Teams in the field/First matchup

BAYLOR (#3, SOUTH) vs. UC-SANTA BARBARA (#14-Big West)

IOWA ST (#6, MIDWEST) vs. PITTSBURGH (#11-ACC) / MISSISSIPPI ST (#11-SEC)

KANSAS (#1, WEST) vs. HOWARD (#16-Mid-Eastern)

KANSAS ST (#3, EAST) vs. MONTANA ST (#14-Big Sky)

TCU (#6, WEST) vs. NEVADA (#11-Mountain West) / ARIZONA ST (#11-Pac 12)

TEXAS (#2, MIDWEST) vs. COLGATE (#15-Patriot)

W VIRGINIA (#9, SOUTH) vs. MARYLAND (#8-Big Ten)

Trends

– Big 12 teams have been dominant in the play-in/first-round games of the tournament since ’17, going 25-8 SU and 22-11 ATS (66.7%).

– Favorites are 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS (68.8%) in the last 16 NCAA tournament games between the Big 12 and Big Ten.

– Against mid-major teams in the NCAAs, Big 12 teams are on a 13-5 ATS (72.2%) surge.

– Big 12 teams are just 10-12 SU and 7-15 ATS (31.8%) in their last 22 NCAA tourney games vs the Big East but have won five straight while going 3-2 ATS.

– Big 12 teams have struggled vs. Missouri Valley teams in NCAA tourney play, going just 3-7 SU and 1-9 ATS (10%) since ’01.

– Underdogs are on a 15-3 ATS (83.3%) run in NCAA tourney games between Big 12 and Pac 12 teams. Big 12 teams are just 6-12 ATS (33.3%) in those contests.

– Big 12 teams have lost 56 of their 70 NCAA tourney games since ‘00 as underdogs of 2.5 points or more and are 27-42-1 ATS (39.1%) in those games.

– As favorites of 7 points or more in the NCAAs, Big 12 teams are on a current run of 22-1 SU and 15-8 ATS (65.2%).

Big East

Teams in the field/First matchup

CONNECTICUT (#4, WEST) vs. IONA (#13-Metro Atlantic)

CREIGHTON (#6, SOUTH) vs. NC STATE (#11-ACC)

MARQUETTE (#2, EAST) vs. VERMONT (#15-America East)

PROVIDENCE (#11, EAST) vs. KENTUCKY (#6-SEC)

XAVIER (#3, MIDWEST) vs. KENNESAW ST (#14-Atlantic Sun)

Trends

– Big East schools own a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS record in championship games since ’01.

– Teams from the Big East in the #8-#9 First Round matchup are just 4-13 SU and 3-14 ATS (17.6%) in the NCAA’s since ’05.

– Big East teams are on an 8-1 SU and ATS (88.9%) run against Mountain West teams in the tournament.

– NCAA tourney games between the Big East and ACC have gone 12-4 OVER the total (75%) since ’13.

– Big East teams have struggled versus the Pac 12 in NCAA tourney play, 7-7 SU and 4-10 ATS (28.6%) since ’10.

– Favorites are 28-14 ATS (66.7%) in the last 42 Big East NCAA tourney games.

– In NCAA tourney games between Big East programs and non-major conferences since ’15, favorites are on a 21-8 SU and ATS (72.4%) run.

Big Sky

Teams in the field/First matchup

MONTANA ST (#14, EAST) vs. KANSAS ST (#3-Big 12)

Trends

– Big Sky teams are just 1-21 SU and 6-16 ATS (27.3%) in the tournament since 2001, including 3-15 ATS (16.7%) as an underdog of fewer than 20 points.

– Big Sky teams have lost 20 straight NCAA tournament games against major conference teams, going 5-15 ATS (25%).

Big South

Teams in the field/First matchup

UNC-ASHEVILLE (#15, WEST) vs. UCLA (#2-Pac 12)

Trends

– Big South teams are 8-3-1 ATS (72.7%) as #16 seeds in the tournament since ’03, 3-7 ATS (30%) in all other seeds.

– Big South teams are on a 15-4 UNDER the total (78.9%) tourney surge versus major conference teams, scoring just 57.3 PPG.

Big Ten

Teams in the field/First matchup

ILLINOIS (#9, WEST) vs. ARKANSAS (#8-SEC)

INDIANA (#4, MIDWEST) vs. KENT ST (#13-Mid-American)

IOWA (#8, MIDWEST) vs. AUBURN (#9-SEC)

MARYLAND (#8, SOUTH) vs. W VIRGINIA (#9-Big 12)

MICHIGAN ST (#7, EAST) vs. USC (#10-Pac 12)

NORTHWESTERN (#7, WEST) vs. BOISE ST (#10-Mountain West)

PENN ST (#10, MIDWEST) vs. TEXAS A&M (#7-SEC)

PURDUE (#1, EAST) vs. TEXAS SOUTHERN (#16-SWAC) / FARLEIGH DICKINSON (#16-Northeast)

Trends

– Big Ten teams are winless at 0-7 SU and ATS in the championship game since ’01.

– Big Ten teams have been vulnerable in the #4 seed of late, 3-12-1 ATS (20%) in their last 16 tourney tries.

– Big Ten teams have been strong in the double-digit chalk role in the tournament, 49-4 SU and 29-20-4 ATS (59.2%) since ’98. However, Purdue did lose outright to St. Peter’s a year ago.

– Big Ten teams are on a 10-4 SU and 12-1-1 ATS (92.3%) versus SEC foes in the NCAA tourney.

– Big Ten teams have gone just 5-17 ATS (22.7%) since ’15 in the NCAA tournament versus Big 12 and Pac-12 foes.

– For as good as Big Ten teams have been in the big favorite role, they have been brutal as underdogs of 5.5 points or more in the tournament, 6-48 SU and 20-34 ATS (37%) since ’98.

– In tourney games with single-digit point spreads versus mid-major conference foes in the NCAAs, Big Ten teams are on an ugly 26-43 ATS (37.7%) skid since ‘06.

– In tourney games of the Sweet 16 round and later, Big Ten teams are just 27-37 SU and 24-37-3 ATS (39.3%) since ’07.

Big West

Teams in the field/First matchup

UC-SANTA BARBARA (#14, SOUTH) vs. BAYLOR (#3-Big 12)

Trends

– Big West teams are just 4-18 SU and 8-13-1 ATS (38.1%) in their last 22 NCAA tournament games.

– Big West teams have trended OVER on totals in the NCAAs since ’99, 18-13 (58.1%).

– Big West teams have struggled in the role of large underdog, 1-19 SU and 7-13-1 ATS (35%) when catching 6.5 points or more in the tourney since ’98.

– All five Big West teams that reached the second round since 2001 lost SU and ATS by an average of 18 PPG.

Colonial Athletic

Teams in the field/First matchup

COLL OF CHARLESTON (#12, SOUTH) vs. SAN DIEGO ST (#5-Mountain West)

Trends

– Colonial Athletic teams have been the country’s best in terms of NCAA tournament spread performance, 26-11-3 ATS (70.3%) since ’01. However, they have lost their last three games, both SU and ATS.

– Colonial Athletic teams are on a 23-8-2 ATS (74.2%) run as NCAA tourney dogs to major conference teams. Again though, they are off three straight losses currently.

– UNDER the total is 7-2 (77.8%) in the last 9 Colonial Athletic NCAA tournament games versus other non-power conference teams.

– CAA teams have covered the spread in all nine NCAA tourney games (9-0 ATS 100%) versus ACC teams since ’01.

Conference USA

Teams in the field/First matchup

FLA ATLANTIC (#9, EAST) vs. MEMPHIS (#8-American Athletic)

Trends

– Conference USA teams are just 6-16 SU and 7-15 ATS (31.8%) in the NCAAs since ’09.

– Versus power conference schools in the NCAA tournament, Conference USA teams are just 22-38 SU and ATS (36.7%) since ’98, including 8-21 ATS (27.6%) as dogs of 4.5 points or more.

– Favorites have won the L6 NCAA tourney games SU and ATS between Conference USA and the ACC.

– Favorites are on a 10-2 SU and ATS (83.3%) run in NCAA tournament games between Conference USA and Big Ten, although North Texas did upend Purdue in 2021.

– Conference USA teams are on a brutal slide of 4-23 SU and 5-22 ATS (18.5%) as single-digit underdogs in the NCAA tournament.

– C-USA teams seeded in the bottom half of the tournament (seeds 9 or worse) are on a 10-24 SU and 12-22 ATS (35.3%) skid.

Horizon

Teams in the field/First matchup

N KENTUCKY (#16, MIDWEST) vs. HOUSTON (#1-American Athletic)

Trends

– Horizon League teams have lost 11 of their last 12 NCAA tourney games while going 4-8 ATS (33.3%).

– Horizon League teams are on a 15-7 UNDER the total (68.2%) NCAA run.

– Line placement has been key in Horizon League NCAA tourney games. As dogs of 8 points or more, they are 0-13 SU and 4-9 ATS (30.8%) since ’02. In all other games, they are 20-10 SU and 22-8 ATS (73.3%).

– In their last 15 NCAA tourney games versus power conference foes, Horizon League teams are 1-14 SU and 5-10 ATS (33.3%) since ’02.

Ivy

Teams in the field/First matchup

PRINCETON (#15, SOUTH) vs. ARIZONA (#2-Pac-12)

Trends

– Ivy League teams have gone 5-11 SU and 10-6 ATS (62.5%) in their last 16 NCAA tourney games.

– Ivy League teams are on an 18-9 UNDER the total (66.7%) NCAA run, including UNDER in all of the last 5.

– As underdogs of 6 points or more in the NCAAs, Ivy League teams are just 1-17 SU and 7-11 ATS (38.9%) since 2000. They are also 15-3 UNDER the total (83.3%) in those games, scoring just 58.4 PPG.

Metro Atlantic

Teams in the field/First matchup

IONA (#13, WEST) vs. CONNECTICUT (#4-Big East)

Trends

– St. Peter’s snapped a 13-game NCAA tourney losing streak for Metro Atlantic Athletic teams by winning three times last year. MAAC teams are now 5-1 ATS (83.3%) in their last 6 tourney tries, including 4-0 ATS (100%) as double-digit dogs.

– MAAC teams are 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS (0%) historically in play-in games.

Mid-American

Teams in the field/First matchup

KENT ST (#13, MIDWEST) vs. INDIANA (#4-Big Ten)

Trends

– Mid-American Conference teams are 14-5 ATS (73.7%) in their last 19 NCAA tourney games as a #13 seed or worse, but 9-11 ATS (45%) in other seeds during that stretch.

– Mid-American Conference teams are on a run of 11-3 ATS (78.6%) in their last 14 tries as dogs of 6.5 points or more in the NCAA tourney.

– MAC teams have won five straight NCAA tourney games versus the Pac-12 against the spread (100%).

 

Mid-Eastern

Teams in the field/First matchup

HOWARD (#16, WEST) vs. KANSAS (#1-Big 12)

Trends

– MEAC teams are on a 4-14 SU and 5-13 ATS (27.8%) slide in the NCAAs.

– MEAC teams are 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS (20%) in their last 10 NCAA tourney games as double-digit dogs.

– NCAA Tourney games featuring MEAC teams have trended heavily UNDER on totals, 18-8 (69.2%) in the last 26.

Missouri Valley

Teams in the field/First matchup

DRAKE (#12, MIDWEST) vs. MIAMI (#5-ACC)

Trends

– Missouri Valley Conference teams are on a 20-13 SU and 20-12-1 ATS (62.5%) run in the NCAA tournament since 2013, and they are on an 18-8-1 ATS (69.2%) run against power conference schools.

– Missouri Valley teams are 6-4 SU and 7-1-2 ATS (70%) in their last 10 NCAA tourney contests vs. the SEC.

– MVC teams have covered 12 of the last 14 (85.7%) and are 18-6-1 ATS (75%) since ’07 as an NCAA tournament underdog or pick em’.

– Underdogs are 19-6-1 ATS (76%) since 2013 in MVC NCAA tourney games.

– UNDER the total is 13-6 (68.4%) in the last 19 Missouri Valley NCAA tourney games.

Mountain West

Teams in the field/First matchup

BOISE ST (#10, WEST) vs. NORTHWESTERN (#7-Big Ten)

NEVADA (#11, WEST) vs. ARIZONA ST (#11-Pac 12)

SAN DIEGO ST (#5, SOUTH) vs. COLL OF CHARLESTON (#12-Colonial Athletic)

UTAH ST (#10, SOUTH) vs. MISSOURI (#7-SEC)

Trends

– Mountain West teams’ struggles in the NCAAs haven’t been that well-documented, but collectively they are just 21-53 SU and 22-49-3 ATS (31%) since 2001, including nine straight outright and ATS defeats!

– As tournament underdogs, Mountain West teams are just 8-37 SU and 11-31-3 ATS (26.2%) since ’01.

– MWC teams have also come up short in the favorite role lately as well in the NCAAs, 5-12 SU and 4-13 ATS (23.5%) since ’11.

– Mountain West Conference teams have been totally overmatched against major conference programs in the NCAAs since 2000, 9-42 SU and 12-37-2 ATS (24.5%).

– As seeds of 8 or worse in the NCAA’s, MWC teams are on a brutal 3-29 SU and 5-25-2 ATS since ’03!

– If you’re wondering about ANY NCAA tourney trends in which MWC teams are successful, they do boast a 6-5-1 ATS mark versus fellow “B” rated conferences since ’05. These include AAC, A10, MVC, WCC)

Northeast

Teams in the field/First matchup

FARLEIGH DICKINSON (#16, EAST) vs. TEXAS SOUTHERN (#16-SWAC)

Trends

– Northeast Conference teams are 4-6 SU and ATS (40%) in play-in games (3-1 SU & ATS when favored) but have lost 15 straight First-Round NCAA tournament games while going 5-9-1 ATS (35.7%).

– Twelve of the last 19 Northeast Conference NCAA tourney games have gone OVER the total (63.2%).

Ohio Valley

Teams in the field/First matchup

SE MISSOURI ST (#16, SOUTH) vs. TEXAS A&M CC (#16-Southland)

Trends

– Ohio Valley Conference teams have been quite competitive in the NCAA tournament, 13-9 ATS (59.1%) in their last 22. They are only 5-24 outright since ’98 though.

– OVC teams are 8-2 ATS (80%) in their last 10 NCAA tourney games when playing as dogs of 9 points or more.

– OVER the total is 9-2 (81.8%) in the last 11 Ohio Valley NCAA tourney games, including 4-0 in the last 4.

Pac-12

Teams in the field/First matchup

ARIZONA (#2, SOUTH) vs. PRINCETON (#15-Ivy League)

ARIZONA ST (#11, WEST) vs. NEVADA (#11-Mountain West)

UCLA (#2, WEST) vs. UNC-ASHEVILLE (#15-Big South)

USC (#10, EAST) vs. MICHIGAN ST (#7-Big Ten)

Trends

– After an amazing 13-5 SU and 18-3 ATS run in the 2021 NCAA tournament, Pac-12 teams responded by going 4-3 SU and 1-6 ATS last year.

– Pac-12 teams are on a 15-4 ATS (78.9%) run versus Big 12 and Big East teams in NCAA tourney play since 2013.

– Underdogs are on a 13-5 ATS (72.2%) surge in NCAA tourney games between the Pac-12 and Big Ten conferences. Pac-12 has won the last 5 SU and ATS.

– Pac-12 teams are 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS (80%) versus Mountain West teams in the tournament since ’02, including 4-0 SU and ATS when favored.

– Pac-12 teams are on a run of 21-7 ATS (75%) in second-round NCAA tournament games.

– Pac-12 teams are just 13-24-1 ATS (35.1%) in the Sweet 16 round since ’01, including 0-2 SU and ATS in 2022.

– Pac-12 teams have performed extremely well as underdogs lately in NCAA tourney games, 35-16 ATS (68.6%) since ’11.

Double-digit seeded Pac-12 teams in the NCAAs have been hard to knock out, as they are 26-19 SU and 33-12 ATS (73.3%) since ’09.

Patriot

Teams in the field/First matchup

COLGATE (#15, MIDWEST) vs. TEXAS (#2-Big 12)

Trends

– Patriot League teams are 10-7 ATS (58.8%) in the First Round of the NCAA tournament since ’04, including 5-2 ATS in the last 7, but are 1-4 ATS (20%) in all other games.

– Patriot League teams are 10-4 (71.4%) ATS as double-digit underdogs in the NCAAs since 2000.

– Patriot League teams are 12-6 (66.7%) ATS versus power conference foes in the NCAAs since 2001.

SEC

Teams in the field/First matchup

ALABAMA (#1, SOUTH) vs. SE MISSOURI ST (#16-Ohio Valley) / TEXAS A&M CC (#16-Southland)

ARKANSAS (#8, WEST) vs. ILLINOIS (#9-Big Ten)

AUBURN (#9, MIDWEST) vs. IOWA (#8-Big Ten)

KENTUCKY (#6, EAST) vs. PROVIDENCE (#11-Big East)

MISSISSIPPI ST (#11, MIDWEST) vs. PITTSBURGH (#11-ACC)

MISSOURI (#7, SOUTH) vs. UTAH ST (#10-Mountain West)

TENNESSEE (#4, EAST) vs. LA-LAFAYETTE (#13-Sun Belt)

TEXAS A&M (#7, MIDWEST) vs. PENN ST (#10-Big Ten)

Trends

– SEC teams have been a solid wager in the Sweet 16 round, 21-11-2 ATS (65.6%) since ’03.

– SEC teams have gotten the better of Pac-12 teams recently in NCAA tournament games, 12-5 ATS (70.6%) in the last 17.

– Seeded in the bottom half of the field (#9-#14), SEC teams have struggled to an 8-21 SU and 10-17-2 ATS (37%) record since ’07.

– The #4 seed and the SEC haven’t meshed well of late, as they are 13-21 ATS (38.2%) in that spot since ’00 and have gone UNDER the total at a 25-8-1 (75.7%) rate.

– As NCAA favorites of more than 20 points, SEC teams are 9-0 OVER the total (100%) since ’01, scoring 85.8 PPG.

– Underdogs are 32-15 ATS (68.1%) in the last 47 SEC NCAA tourney games overall.

– As pick em’s or small favorites of 5 points or less, SEC teams are an ugly 39-47 SU and 31-51-4 ATS (37.8%) in the NCAA’s since ’99.

Southern

Teams in the field/First matchup

FURMAN (#13, SOUTH) vs. VIRGINIA (#4-ACC)

Trends

– Southern Conference teams have been very competitive in the NCAAs when playing as an underdog of fewer than 15 points, 15-5 ATS (75%) in the last 20.

– SoCon teams have trended UNDER the total in recent NCAAs, 11-2 (84.6%) in the last 13.

Southland

Teams in the field/First matchup

TEXAS A&M CC (#16, SOUTH) vs. SE MISSOURI ST (#16-Ohio Valley)

Trends

– As underdogs of 8.5 points or less, Southland Conference teams are 6-3-1 ATS (66.7%) in their last 10 NCAA tournament tries, but when a larger underdog than that, they are 0-17 SU and 6-10-1 ATS (37.5%).

– Southland Conference teams are 12-3 UNDER the total (80%) in their last 15 NCAA tournament first-round games.

– Southland Conference teams have lost their last 3 Play-In games, both SU and ATS (0%).

Summit

Teams in the field/First matchup

ORAL ROBERTS (#12, EAST) vs. DUKE (#5-ACC)

Trends

– Overall, Summit League teams are on a 7-2-1 ATS (77.9%) run in NCAA tourney action, including a 3-0 ATS sweep by Oral Roberts in 2021. Underdogs are 8-1-1 ATS (88.9%) in those games.

– Summit League teams have been a very competitive First-Round NCAA team in recent years, going 2-6 SU BUT 6-1-1 ATS (85.7%) in the last 8.

– Recognized as a high-scoring, up-tempo league, four of the last 5 NCAA tourney games featuring a Summit League team went UNDER the total (80%).

Sun Belt

Teams in the field/First matchup

LA-LAFAYETTE (#13, EAST) vs. TENNESSEE (#4-SEC)

Trends

– Sun Belt teams have lost their last 6 NCAA tournament games while going 1-5 ATS (16.7%). UNDER the total is also 5-1 (83.3%) in those games.

– As #14-#16 seeds in the NCAA’s, SBC teams are on a 6-11-1 ATS (35.3%) slide since ’99, but as #13 or better they’ve gone 9-4 ATS (69.2%) in that same span.

– As underdogs of 7.5 points or less, Sun Belt teams are on a 2-9 SU and 2-8-1 ATS (20%) slide in the NCAAs.

– As double-digit dogs, although they’ve never pulled an outright upset, Sun Belt teams are on a 10-4 ATS (71.4%) surge in the NCAAs.

– Sun Belt teams seem to take some motivation from playing major conference teams, as they are on an NCAA tourney run of 7-4 ATS (64.6%) versus those foes since ’08.

SWAC

Teams in the field/First matchup

TEXAS SOUTHERN (#16, EAST) vs. FARLEIGH DICKINSON (#16-Northeast)

Trends

– SWAC teams are on a 5-2 ATS (71.4%) run currently in NCAA tourney games, including back-to-back wins in Play-In games.

– Despite allowing 87.8 PPG, SWAC teams are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 NCAA first-round contests.

WAC

Teams in the field/First matchup

GRAND CANYON (#14, WEST) vs. GONZAGA (#3-West Coast)

Trends

– WAC teams have won just three games in the NCAAs since ’04, going 3-22 SU and 10-15 ATS (40%).

– Underdogs have covered the spread in four straight WAC NCAA tourney games although favorites are 19-1 SU in the last 20.

– Six of the last seven WAC NCAA tourney games have gone OVER the total (85.7%).

West Coast

Teams in the field/First matchup

GONZAGA (#3, WEST) vs. GRAND CANYON (#14-WAC)

ST MARYS-CA (#5, WEST) vs. VA COMMONWEALTH (#12-Atlantic 10)

Trends

– West Coast teams are 8-3 SU and ATS (72.7%) in their last 11 NCAA tourney matchups versus Big East foes.

– West Coast Conference teams are just 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS (16.7%) in their last 12 NCAA games against top 3 seeds.

– West Coast Conference teams haven’t been as good as suspected as NCAA tournament underdogs, 7-20 SU and 8-19 ATS (29.6%) since ’07, including seven straight outright and ATS losses.

– WCC teams have struggled against other non-major conference teams in NCAA tourney play, 17-8 SU BUT 7-18 ATS (28%) since ’04.

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As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.