2024 MAC Basketball Tournament
The Mid-American Conference will not be confused with one of the best conferences in the country. KenPom ranks this conference 24th among the 33 conferences this season. No team in the MAC in either KenPom’s or BartTorvik’s rankings place higher than 119th in the country.
Still, this should make for an entertaining tournament. Akron brings a team into this tournament that has the same pieces that won it two years ago. Toledo is the top seed in the MAC, but comes in with the second-highest odds of winning the whole thing. The No. 8 seed Kent State is an analytics darling with the fourth-best odds of winning despite an underwhelming resume.
It figures to be an exciting three days in Cleveland, and we have all the insight you need to attack the MAC this week.
How to Watch the MAC Tournament
When: March 14-16
Where: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse (Cleveland, Ohio)
Format: All teams begin play in quarterfinals
Watch: ESPN+ (Quarterfinals), CBS Sports Network (Semifinals), ESPN 2 (Final)
MAC Tournament Bracket
MAC Tournament Seeds, Teams and Odds
1. Toledo Rockets +340
2. Akron Zips +155
3. Ohio Bobcats +330
4. Central Michigan Chippewas +2200
5. Bowling Green Falcons +1400
6. Western Michigan Broncos +6500
7. Miami-OH Redhawks +1600
8. Kent State Golden Flashes +600
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate at time of publish)
Favorite To Win MAC Tournament
Despite a rough end to the regular season and losing out on the top seed, Akron enters the MAC Championship as the favorite.
The Zips were anything but in the regular season. They played at the third-slowest pace in MAC play and played a dominant brand of defense that limited opponents to 99.4 points per 100 possessions. That defense eluded Akron when it dropped its final game to Western Michigan as an 8.5-point favorite, but should be steady when play begins on Thursday.
Akron’s biggest weakness comes on the offensive end. It did finish in adjusted offensive efficiency in conference play (112.1), but that was despite shooting just 33.7% from beyond the arc. Some of that percentage can be attributed to high-volume – they take 40.3% of their attempts from deep – but it can be their undoing. In six of their 10 losses this season the Zips averaged less than a point per possession.
The team’s biggest strength is at the forward position. Enrique Freeman is a monster who averaged 18.1 points and 12.8 rebounds this season. He and Ali Ali – who averaged 15.5 points per game – are a pair of lengthy wing players who stand 6-foot-7 and 6-foot-8 respectively.
They are two of four seniors who start for Akron, and that is really what gives this team a leg up. The Zips are an old team that has played together. Ali, Freeman, Greg Tribble and Sammy Hunter have all played for the program for some time. It gives Akron an edge in experience.
Akron is a deserving favorite to win this tournament. It has the best perimeter defense in the conference, and its length and experience give them a clear path toward winning the MAC and its bid to the NCAA Tournament.
MAC Tournament Darkhorse
It is rare when a No. 8 seed has the fourth-best odds to win a tournament, but that is the case for Kent State. The Golden Flashes are a metric darling despite an 8-10 SU/5-13 ATS record in conference play. Frankly, it is not something that is backed by evidence. In fact, that record against the number would suggest that the market and the metrics have been stubborn in overvaluing this team.
Kent State was the third-worst defense in the MAC. It allowed 106.7 points per 100 possessions to conference opponents. The Golden Flashes’ interior defense was non-existent and allowed opponents to shoot 53.0% on shots inside the arc. Their offense is supposed to be a strength, but they rank 205th in offensive efficiency over the last 10 games, according to Bart Torvik. There are also questions about the status of Chris Payton who missed the last three games due to injury.
Frankly, I cannot understand why this team would have such short odds to win the tournament. Instead, look toward Ohio as a true darkhorse contender.
The Bobcats enter the MAC Tournament in fantastic form. They finished the regular season 8-2 SU and ATS in their final 10 games. In those 10 games Ohio is the highest rated team in the MAC via BartTorvik (132nd). It had a +3.4 adjusted net rating in those contests. The Bobcats’ schedule was easier down the stretch, but it did split with Akron this season and pushed Toledo on the road.
Players to Watch in the MAC Tournament
Interestingly, four of the league’s top five scorers did not make it into the MAC Tournament. Bowling Green’s Marcus Hill is the lone player among them to be on a team worthy of making it to Cleveland. Hill is a dynamic guard who averaged 20.6 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. He dropped 31 points on Toldeo back on Feb. 23 in an upset win for the Falcons as a 4.5-point underdog.
As previously mentioned, Enrique Freeman is an incredible forward for Akron. He averaged that double-double on 58.4% shooting from the floor. In fact, according to KenPom he led the country in individual defensive rebounding rate (32.3%), Freeman is also excellent at getting to the line, ranking 38th in the country in fouls drawn per 40 minutes (6.3) and free throw rate (63.0%).
Ra’Heim Moss and Dante Maddox Jr. led the way for Toledo, combining to average 31.4 points per game. Moss draws 5.2 fouls per 40 minutes and ranks 196th in the country in free throw rate. Maddox is a 40.8% shooter from deep who took 174 attempts this season.
If Kent State is going to make good on the love it is getting in the market, then it will be through the play of Jalen Sullinger. Sullinger led the Golden Flashes in scoring at 15.1 points per game and shot 39.7% on 6.1 3-point attempts per game.
The best all-around player in the tournament might be Jaylin Hunter for Ohio. Hunter averaged 13.9 points, 4.4 rebounds and 5.1 assists for the Bobcats this season. He finished the season with less than 10 points in three straight contests, but he has seven 20-point performances this season and can catch fire at any moment.
Betting Pick to Win the MAC Tournament
The MAC is not an impressive league overall, and that would lend itself to some chaos once play begins. There are many who will look toward an Akron team that has nearly the same roster that rolled through this tournament two years ago. It is hard to deny the potential for the Zips, a team that will be favored in every game it plays.
Ohio is also worth a look here at +330 or better. The Bobcats are playing the best basketball among the teams at the top of the conference. They have great guard play in both Hunter and his backcourt mate, Shereef Mitchell (13.3 points, 4.3 rebounds). Ohio also has the qualities of a team that can bring teams down to its level. It shoots efficiently (36.8%) and plays at a slow pace (66.8 possessions per game). Those are qualities that can lead to success in a neutral court tournament.
