2024 Sun Belt Conference Basketball Tournament Odds & Predictions
The 2024 Sun Belt Conference Tournament tips off on Tuesday March 5 at the Pensacola Bay Center in the Sunshine State, as all 14 teams will be in the field. Appalachian State and James Madison are teams that could have a borderline at-large case, but this will still be a one-bid league. One really good team will likely be headed to the NIT.
There are no quirks here with no re-seeding, as the 5 through 10 seeds get a bye to the second round and the top four seeds get a bye to the quarterfinals. Action takes place on Tuesday, Thursday, and then Saturday, Sunday, and Monday here, so the winner will have to take down at least three games in three days.
How to Watch the Sun Belt Conference Tournament
When: March 5, March 7, March 9-11
Where: Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, FL
Format: Seeds 5-10 get byes to the second round; top four get byes to Quarterfinals
Watch: ESPN+, ESPN2; Championship Game on ESPN2 on Mar. 11 at 7 p.m. ET
College Basketball Odds | College Basketball Betting Splits | Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines | Steve Makinen’s Power Ratings
Sun Belt Conference Tournament Bracket
Sun Belt Conference Tournament Seeds, Teams and Odds
1. Appalachian State (+180)
2. James Madison (+120)
3. Troy (+500)
4. Arkansas State (+800)
5. Louisiana (+1200)
6. Southern Miss (+7000)
7. Georgia State (+6000)
8. South Alabama (+5000)
9. Georgia Southern (+25000)
10. Marshall (+10000)
11. Texas State (+10000)
12. Louisiana Monroe (+50000)
13. Coastal Carolina (+50000)
14. Old Dominion (+25000)
(odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate at time of publish)
Favorite To Win Sun Belt Conference Tournament
The No. 2 seed James Madison Dukes are the favorites, coming in rated quite a bit higher for KenPom and Bart Torvik overall. The Dukes beat Michigan State back on Nov. 6 to begin the season with a bang and actually enter the tourney with a 28-3 record, but they did lose to App State twice, back on Jan. 13 by four points and Jan. 27 by six points.
In terms of conference ranks, Torvik has JMU second in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, while App State paces the field on defense and Arkansas State leads the way in offense. Even though Arky State is the most efficient offense in conference play, JMU ranks top 40 in eFG% offense and App State is second, coming in around 80th per Torvik.
Sun Belt Conference Tournament Darkhorse
I’m honestly not sure there’s a good darkhorse here. Louisiana only runs about six deep with its rotation and would have to win four games in five days to emerge victorious, though Arkansas State does seem to be the weakest of the top four seeds and that would be the quarterfinal matchup before likely running into App State.
The 5/1 price on Troy hardly makes the Trojans a darkhorse, but since I haven’t mentioned them yet, it is worth noting that they beat App State back on Jan. 6 and won 13 of 18 Sun Belt games. Through some weird scheduling quirk, Troy never played James Madison. Two of their five conference losses were Arkansas State, who they wouldn’t face until the title game if both of them got there.
Players to Watch in Sun Belt Conference Tournament
Balanced scoring is the claim to fame of the Sun Belt, as nobody averaged more than 17.6 PPG during the regular season. James Madison’s Terrence Edwards Jr. was that player, followed by Louisiana’s Kobe Julien with 17.2 PPG. Coastal Carolina and Marshall don’t look to be factors, but Ginika Ojiako (12.8 PPG, 10.8 RPG) and Nate Martin (10.8 PPG, 10 RPG) were the only players to average a double-double.
A rarity in college basketball these days is a five-year senior and that’s what Caleb Fields is for Arkansas State. He led the conference by far in assists per game with 5.8 and is the floor general for the Red Wolves and their offense. They’re a guard-oriented team with leading scorer Taryn Todd (12.7 PPG) and the 12.1 PPG from Fields.
Most of these teams are in the Sun Belt, as there aren’t really any overly dominant bigs. That said, a lot of teams have high shot shares at the rim because they have guards that slash and dash.
Betting Pick to Win The Sun Belt Conference Tournament
James Madison is the most balanced team in this conference and it appears that they are on a crash course with Appalachian State in a double-revenge spot. The Dukes should be a slight favorite around -1 or -2 in a neutral-site title game, but I prefer App State’s path to James Madison’s path, as I actually think Troy is a better team than Arkansas State.
So, I’ll take the higher price on App State at +180, since I think both teams are pretty close together and have a similar chance at winning the 2024 Sun Belt Conference Tournament.
Pick: App State +180
Makinen Power Ratings for Sun Belt Conference
Check out the other previews in our 2024 College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Guide.
