2025 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament

The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament might own the moniker “Arch Madness”, but history tells us the MVC conference tournament is anything but chaotic. Forty-two of the previous 48 MVC tournament winners were seeded in the top three, and the top two seeds have combined to win 35 titles.

The odds-on favorite to win Arch Madness this season – the Drake Bulldogs – are pursuing just the second three-peat in conference history. But a spot in the history books of the conference pales in comparison to an NCAA Tournament berth. It would seem Drake – the 60th-ranked team in the nation via KenPom – has a tenuous hold on an at-large bid should it not conquer the MVC.

 

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How to Watch the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament

When: March 6-9

Where: Enterprise Center in St. Louis, MO

Format: Top four seeds get byes to the quarterfinals.

Watch: First round and quarterfinals on ESPN+/MVC TV; Semifinals on CBSSN; Final on CBS at 2:15 p.m. ET.

College Basketball Odds | College Basketball Betting Splits | Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines | Steve Makinen’s Power Ratings

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Bracket

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Seeds, Teams and Odds

1. Drake Bulldogs (-110)

2. Bradley Braves (+340)

3. Northern Iowa Panthers (+475)

4. Belmont Bruins (+1200)

5. Illinois State Redbirds (+1500)

6. UIC Flames (+2800)

7. Murray State Racers (+2200)

8. Southern Illinois Salukis (+5000)

9. Indiana State Sycamores (+8000)

10. Evansville Purple Aces (+20000)

11. Valparaiso Beacons (+15000)

12. Missouri State Bears (+12000)

(odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate at time of publish)

Favorite To Win Missouri Valley Conference Tournament

Despite the solid depth in the MVC the Drake Bulldogs are the odds-on favorites to win Arch Madness. Drake romped through conference play with a 17-3 record, but covered just 10 of the 20 contests. Neither Southern Illinois or Indiana State – the two teams Drake would face in its first contest – should present much of a problem. The Sycamores are in better form than its record indicates, and they did push the Bulldogs to overtime in Des Moines, but Drake should be a decent favorite in the quarterfinals should they meet.

The Bulldogs are the slowest team in the country, and the only one to average fewer than 60 possessions per game (59.4). They are also an elite offensive rebounding team that grabbed 36.2% of its missed shots in the regular season. It is an agonizing combination which can wear teams down. Drake is also analytically sound in its offensive attack. It is 69th in near-proximity shot attempts per 100 shot attempts via Haslametrics and 274th in mid-range attempts per 100 possessions.

If the Bulldogs fail to three-peat this season it is likely due to two key reasons: turnovers and interior defense. Despite the very deliberate pace at which it plays, Drake ranks 292nd in the country in turnover rate (19.0%). On defense, it ranks 300th in field goal percentage allowed inside the arc (54.3%) and 277th in opponent free throw rate (36.9%). 

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Darkhorse

If history is any indicator it is hard to look extremely deep in this field. No team seeded beyond the fifth seed has ever won this tournament, and only six teams seeded 4th and 5th have won. The obvious choice to push Drake in this tournament is Bradley, the two-seed. The Braves split the season series with the Bulldogs. But Bradley ended the season playing average basketball. Barttorvik rated it as the 147th-best team in the country over the final 10 games.

Northern Iowa should be a team on bettors’ radar heading into Arch Madness. The Panthers ended the regular season on a 7-2 SU/6-3 ATS run which included an overtime loss to Drake. Over the last 10 games Northern Iowa is playing defense at a top-60 rate. It avoids Drake until the final, and it is capable of dispatching Bradley, which it split the regular season series with.

Players to Watch in Missouri Valley Conference Tournament

Bennett Stirtz leads Drake in points (18.9), assists (5.9) and steals (2.2) per game. He also comes into the MVC tournament on a heater. Since Jan. 29 Stirtz is averaging 21.4 points on 57.8% shooting from the floor. He is second in the conference in assist rate and 30th in that category in the entire country.

Bradley is the second-likeliest winner of the tournament, but it does not boast a true alpha presence. The Braves got it done with balanced scoring from its trio of scorers in Duke Deen (14.1 PPG), Zek Montgomery (12.6 PPG) and Darius Hannah (12.1 PPG). Deen leads the team in assists per game (3.8) and is a deadly shooter (41.1%). Hannah is a skilled forward who leads Bradley in rebounds (5.8).

If Northern Iowa lives up to the status of darkhorse, it will be on the back of Tytan Anderson. Anderson led the Panthers in points (15.3), rebounds (6.5) and blocks (0.6) per game. He also added 1.2 steals per contest. He is a great threat inside the arc and was second in the MVC in both effective field goal percentage (60.0%) and true shooting percentage (63.6%).

Betting Pick to Win The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament

Drake is the reasonable odds-on favorite to win Arch Madness, but the bet to make for this tournament is Northern Iowa. The Panthers were the best cover team in conference play at 13-7 ATS. They dominated UIC in the regular season – the Flames are favored over Valparaiso in the first round – and while they lost to the Beacons, that was at the beginning of January. This is a much different team heading into the postseason. NIU was the third-best defensive team in the MVC and it does a great job at limiting shots inside. It is also a great shooting team which ranks 38th in the country in 3-point percentage. It would not be a shock to see the Panthers make a run in Arch.

Pick: Northern Iowa (+475)

Steve Makinen’s Power Ratings for the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament

  • Only two of the 42 underdogs of 6.5 points or more in the MVC tourney since 2014 have won outright and have gone 13-29 ATS (31%) in those games.
  • The MVC tourney is typically a low-scoring bracket, and over the last 10 seasons, on totals of 131.5 or higher, Under is on a 39-21 (65%) run.
  • Prior to the Indiana State (-3) 84-80 loss to Drake a year ago, favorites in the MVC tournament championship game had won the prior 12 games outright and were 11-0 ATS since 2013!

More Steve Makinen Conference Tournament Betting Trends.

Check out the other previews in our 2025 College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Guide.

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