2025 Sun Belt Conference Basketball Tournament Odds & Predictions

The 2025 Sun Belt Conference Tournament looks a lot different this season and has been discussed at length thanks to its new format. It begins on Tuesday March 4 and ends on Monday March 10 and there are two games every day until we get to the championship game. The top two seeds, No. 1 South Alabama and No. 2 James Madison have a bye to the Semifinals. Seeds 11 through 14 play on Day 1 in the first round, and then the next two seeds get byes each successive day, so No. 9 Georgia Southern and No. 10 Old Dominion play their first game in the second round on Wednesday, No. 8 Georgia State and No. 7 Texas State play their first game in third round on Thursday and so on.

Every day of the tournament will be played at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida, which has been the case the last three years after the 2021 tournament split time there and at the Hartsell Arena at Pensacola State College.

 

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All conference members qualified for the Sun Belt Tournament.

How to Watch the Sun Belt Conference Tournament

When: March 4-10

Where: Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, FL

Format: No. 1, No. 2 seeds get bye to Semifinals, No. 3, No. 4 seeds get bye to Quarterfinals; Seeds 11-14 play in first round, groups of next two seeds play their  first game in next round

Watch: ESPN+ and ESPN2; Championship Game on ESPN2 on Mar. 10 at 7 p.m. ET

College Basketball Odds | College Basketball Betting Splits | Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines | Steve Makinen’s Power Ratings

Sun Belt Conference Tournament Bracket

Coming soon.

Sun Belt Conference Tournament Seeds, Teams and Odds

1. South Alabama (+280)

2. James Madison (+380)

3. Troy (+350)

4. Arkansas State (+200)

5. Marshall (+2000)

6. Appalachian State (+1300)

7. Texas State (+5000)

8. Georgia State (+20000)

9. Georgia Southern (+35000)

10. Old Dominion (+50000)

11. Louisiana (+50000)

12. Southern Miss (+50000)

13. Coastal Carolina (+50000)

14. Louisiana Monroe (+50000)

(odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate at time of publish)

Favorite To Win Sun Belt Conference Tournament

As the odds show, this conference tournament is wide open. Despite the huge advantage for South Alabama and James Madison, it is Arkansas State that is the favorite for the lone NCAA Tournament bid in the conference. The Red Wolves have to play in the Quarterfinals and would face the winner of a surging Marshall team and either Georgia State or whichever team ends up playing Georgia State.

Arkansas State is the consensus top team in this league for KenPom, Bart Torvik, and Haslametrics, so a deserving favorite in that sense, but the top four seeds here all finished in a tie at 13-5 and Arkansas State lost the tiebreakers all four ways to wind up on that line. They were just 1-4 against South Alabama/James Madison/Troy.

Opponents took a 3-pointer on 59.4% of shot attempts against South Alabama, as Richie Riley’s unique defensive scheme worked well for one of the slowest teams in the country. Troy is a bruising team that gets to the rim a lot and pulls down a lot of offensive rebounds. James Madison also plays slow and takes a lot of 3s, while selling out to defend the 3-point line.

Sun Belt Conference Tournament Darkhorse

The format of this tournament makes it tough to like one of the longer shots because of the need to win at least four games in four days as a No. 5 or higher seed. But, the one that makes the most sense is Marshall (20/1). Marshall hammered App State in the regular season finale for the second time in a week and Cornelius Jackson’s team has won six of the last eight, with one of those an overtime loss at No. 1 seed South Alabama. They also split with James Madison and lost by just one point to Troy.

Players to Watch in Sun Belt Conference Tournament

Interestingly, the two top scorers in this conference came from lesser teams, as Denijay Harris (16.9 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 1.6 BPG) was the unquestioned offensive leader for Southern Miss. Adante’ Holiman (16.8 PPG) led Georgia Southern in scoring. In all, there are 10 players that averaged at least 15 PPG in this league. It is not a conference that plays a ton of defense, so we could get some really exciting games.
Appalachian State had two players in the top 10, with Myles Tate (16.5 PPG, 5.4 APG) and CJ Huntley (15.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG) among the leaders. So did Old Dominion, with Robert Davis Jr. (15.6 PPG) and Sean Durugordon (15.3 PPG, 8.6 RPG). Georgia State actually had three of the top 15 scorers in the regular season with a rather expensive (by mid-major standards) transfer roster. That’s a team I expected to be better. Maybe they’ll show it here. At +20000, I wish they didn’t have to win five games in five games.

Betting Pick to Win The Sun Belt Conference Tournament

Even though Arkansas State gets a big advantage, I’m fading the favorite here, as they padded their record against the lesser teams in this conference. Their conference strength of schedule ranked 13th when all was said and done and they did not play well against the best teams this league has to offer. If Marshall wins their fourth round game, I think they beat Arkansas State.

I’m going to take James Madison here at +380. Preston Spradlin is a terrific head coach and they’ve played well down the stretch, albeit against a weak schedule. They take good care of the basketball, which matters if they play Troy, and they’re comfortable shooting a lot of 3s if they play South Alabama.

Pick: James Madison (+380)

Makinen Power Ratings for Sun Belt Conference

Coming soon.

  • With one of the most unusual brackets of any league around, getting a bye in the Sun Belt tournament hasn’t been very advantageous recently, as teams that did are 16-8 SU but 9-15 ATS (37.5%) against teams that didn’t over the last five years.
  • Small favorites in the Sun Belt have been money of late, as those laying 4.5 points or less are 33-14 SU and 30-16-1 ATS (65.2%) dating back to 2016.
  • Totals above 146 have trended Under of late in the Sun Belt tournament, 18-7 Under the total (72%) since 2017.

More Steve Makinen Conference Tournament Betting Trends.

Check out the other previews in our 2025 College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Guide.

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