2026 American Conference Basketball Tournament Odds & Predictions
The American Conference could be a one-bid league this season, as South Florida is the only team that is consistently included by bracketologists in the NCAA Tournament field. However, there is a chance someone else steals a bid on March 15, when the American Conference finals will be played at Legacy Arena. Wichita State, Tulsa, and UAB will all feel like they have the talent required to get the job done. The Blazers actually lost in last year’s finals, which came after UAB won the tournament in 2024. So, this is a program that generally finds its way into the conversation, even if the team is fourth in the standings — and on the oddsboard. Either way, this has the potential to be an interesting week, and all eyes will be on the Bulls.
How to Watch the American Conference Tournament
When: March 11-15
Where: Legacy Arena in Birmingham, Alabama
Format: Teams seeded by records within conference; top-four teams receive byes to quarterfinals, top-two teams to semifinals
Watch: ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN+, ESPNU, ESPNews; Championship Game on ESPN on Mar. 15 at 3:15 p.m. ET
College Basketball Odds | College Basketball Betting Splits | Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines | Steve Makinen’s Power Ratings
American Conference Bracket
American Conference Tournament Seeds, Teams and Odds
- South Florida Bulls (-120)
- Wichita State Shockers (+370)
- Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+270)
- UAB Blazers (22-1)
- Charlotte 49ers (120-1)
- North Texas Mean Green (65-1)
- Florida Atlantic Owls (120-1)
- Memphis Tigers (80-1)
- Tulane Green Wave (300-1)
- Temple Owls (150-1)
(odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate at time of publish)
Favorite To Win American Conference Tournament
South Florida will be under a lot of pressure in this tournament, as the Bulls might need to win it all in order to make the NCAA Tournament. However, they should feel really good about their chances. South Florida is the most talented team in the conference, by far. The Bulls play fast, they’re relentless on the offensive glass, and they have some guys that can really make shots. Then, on the defensive end, South Florida causes a lot of turnovers, and the team also defends very well around the basket. This team is also wildly balanced. CJ Brown is a good point guard for the group, then Wes Enis, Joseph Pinion, and Josh Omojafo all make plays around him. Enis is actually a nightly 25-point scoring threat. Also, Izaiyah Nelson is one of the best bigs in the conference, averaging 15.8 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game. His energy on both ends of the floor makes the Bulls an absolute pain to play against, and I’m not sure any other team in the American Conference has a backcourt this potent to go along with a player like Nelson.
American Conference Tournament Darkhorse
This is one of the hardest conferences to pick a darkhorse for, as the depth simply isn’t there. However, if there’s one team towards the bottom of the oddsboard with a chance of turning some heads, it’s North Texas. The Mean Green are horrendous offensively, ranking 282nd in the country in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (103.6). They’re also one of the worst 3-point shooting teams you’ll see. However, they’re the best defensive team in the American, ranking 49th in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (102.5), No. 8 in Turnover Rate defense (21.5%), and No. 38 in 3-point defense (31.2% 3PT allowed). North Texas can absolutely shut the water off for an opponent on any given night, and if somebody can just get hot then this team might be able to do some damage. And honestly, this is March. You see uncharacteristic one-week runs from players all the time.
Betting Pick to Win the American Conference Tournament
It’s boring going with the chalky pick, but this South Florida team is very good. The Bulls are a top-65 team when it comes to both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (117.7) and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (103.2). Those numbers are good for the second-best marks in the conference, and the other teams just have far bigger weaknesses than you’ll find with USF. Something else to like about the Bulls is that the backcourt is so deep that players can pick up for one another when someone is off. Great players go cold all the time, but South Florida won’t be dead in the water if Enis has a bad game. The Bulls have other players that can make shots.
Honestly, Wichita State and Tulsa both have their positives, so it shouldn’t stun anyone if one of those teams wins. However, the price just isn’t right for either of them. Tulsa is a fantastic offensive team, but the group is miserable on defense. Meanwhile, Wichita State is the opposite, as the Shockers can’t score but they can defend. You don’t get those kinds of concerns with the Bulls, and the price isn’t much worse to pay for the two-way certainty.
Makinen Power Ratings for American Conference
Steve Makinen’s Betting Trends for the American Conference Tournament
- Opening round single-digit favorites are just 8-15-1 ATS (34.8%) in their last 24 tries in the AAC tourney.
- In the 10-year history of the AAC tourney, Under the total is 7-3-1 (70%) in the championship game. Favorites are 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS (72.7%) in those contests, allowing just 61.5 PPG.
- It’s not a frequent occurrence, as the AAC has been a relatively lower-scoring league, but totals of 150 or more in the tourney have gone 6-2 Under (72.7%) since 2016.
More Steve Makinen Conference Tournament Betting Trends.
Check out the other previews in our 2026 College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Guide.
