2026 College Basketball Betting Splits Systems Update:
After spending the entire last week seemingly focused on a single football game to be played this coming Sunday, I was anxiously awaiting getting back into college basketball analysis this week. Like most seasoned bettors, I like to spread my bankroll, time, and resources around more evenly. I figured a good place to start in crunching the numbers for college hoops is in the area of the DraftKings Betting Splits. We all know that most recreational bettors don’t win, and historically, I have found that fading their hunches can be a great place to start my own handicapping. So far this season, the DK majority bettors’ losses have been dramatic. I’m here now to update and perhaps expand upon or refine the DK Betting Splits Systems I shared with you at the outset of the season.
The next two months are going to be the biggest and best of the college basketball season, so hopefully this update can help you navigate what is always an exciting time of year for bettors. With that in mind, be sure to read through the systems, as last year, the DK majorities really picked up their performance in the last two months of the season, and those results are reflected in some of the angles.
Prior to last year, when I first set out to study the DK Betting Splits for college hoops, I always wondered how public bettors fared in the sport, largely due to limited knowledge of most teams and the sheer volume of games. Were they just guessing? Were they taking the favorites and Overs like usual? Were they simply backing the best teams regularly? So, I reached out to my database guy at VSiN and collected a report of all the DK splits for the season at that point and paired it with the actual game results. The findings validated exactly what I was feeling. DK bettors were incurring slow and steady losses. So, as I’ve done for almost all of the other major sports we cover at VSiN, I took a deeper dive into the data and put together a set of betting splits systems that our readers could take advantage of for the rest of the season. I then went back in October and updated the full 2024-25 season results, which included March and the postseason tournaments, which naturally see the most betting activity. The public’s won-lost records did pick up in the latter part of the season.
I spent some time organizing all the splits numbers against the actual results for the first three months of the 2025-26 season. To summarize the findings, the sample contained 3,745 games, and for the most part, majority bettors lost big on all six metrics I track, although they did show some competency in majority handles on totals. That said, all six metrics were improved measurably in the final two months of last season, so we’ll see if that continues from here on out. I will have more on that later, but for now, these were the results through games of Sunday, February 1st:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 1714-1962 ATS (46.6%), -444.2 units – ROI: -12.1%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 1771-1917 ATS (48%), -337.7 units – ROI: -9.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 2483-1054 (70.2%). -340.81 units – ROI: -9.6%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 2590-952 (73.1%). -353.37 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on totals: 1905-1783 (51.7%). -56.3 units – ROI: -1.5%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1795-1841 (49.4%), -230.1 units – ROI: -6.3%
If you’re wondering why all the results don’t add up to 3,745 games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null and there were several games where the betting volume, specifically on money lines, didn’t meet the minimum for consideration.
The most interesting finding from the numbers above was that majority handle totals bettors wound up being the most successful group, as they are the only group even near profitability. If they can match their late-season performance from last year, they can reach that goal. The rest of the results are downright ugly, so much so that simply going against the majority handle point spread bettors on every play would have netted a savvy bettor over 75 units of profit! Collectively, bettors have been as bad in the early part of the college hoops season as they have been in any other sport I have studied.
For anyone new to my Betting Splits analysis for the various sports, in general, when looking at the data samples, I like to surmise that handle would tend to include a greater percentage of bigger money bettors who are perhaps more “sharp”, while the number of bets groups contains all of the bets that come in, which includes the smallest of recreational bettors’ input.
VSiN promotes the Betting Splits Data from DraftKings and Circa often, and righteously so, as we believe these to be fantastic resources for bettors. These are among the most heavily used pages on VSiN.com, and we have built highly usable data charts that break down money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. While both feeds are valuable in their own right, I find that the DraftKings clientele better represents a more “public” and perhaps less informed collective. My common belief is that the “betting public,” especially at a heavy recreational source like DraftKings does not win over the long haul.
Whenever I write these Betting Splits articles, I like to remind readers that the two common betting generalities for recreational players who wager at places like DraftKings. That is the majority bet favorites on point spread and Overs on totals. The numbers are staggering. According to the ticket/handle in last year’s CBB season, majority wagers were on favorites in 75.9% of the games, and on Overs for totals in 69.9%.
With the overall results in mind, here are some college basketball systems and records that have developed and continued to produce so far in the 2025-26 season that I will be continuously tracking going forward.
DK CBB Betting Splits system #1: DraftKings majority bettors have been generally more successful when opting for money line wagering on sides as opposed to point spreads this past season and a half. Here are the updated results on the handle metrics.
– 2024-mid 25-26 CBB season Majority handle on point spreads: 4447-4749 ATS (48.4%), -776.9 units – ROI: -8.4%
– 2024-mid 25-26 CBB season Majority handle on money lines: 6,378-2,830 (69.3%), -471.02 units – ROI: -5.1%
This is a 3.3% separation in ROI and a 300+ unit disparity between two different options for betting a side in college basketball. It is said that the point spread is the great equalizer in sports, but here it seems to also be the secret weapon for those running the sportsbooks. On the court, for the most part, college athletes and coaches simply care about getting wins for the names on the front of the jersey. Perhaps more bettors should be embracing that philosophy at a higher percentage. The point spread may take some of the bite out of the price bettors on favorites are backing, but when it’s not an important part of the team’s goals for that game, is that savings worth it? This is definitely a philosophy to consider this season, particularly late in the season when winning and advancing in various tournaments means everything.
DK CBB Betting Splits system #2: DraftKings majority bettors were terrible in the early part of the 2024-25 and 2025-26 college basketball season (November through January) but much better in the latter part (February through April) in all metrics. Here are the numbers for handle, note that the number of bets results were very similar. The ROI category is the one to really consider most.
– November-January Majority handle on point spreads: 3380-3703 ATS (47.7%), -693.3 units – ROI: -9.8%
– February & later Majority handle on point spreads: 1067-1046 ATS (50.5%), -83.6 units – ROI: -4.0%
– November-January Majority handle on MONEY LINES: 4905-2144 (69.6%), -511.49 units – ROI: -7.3%
– February & later Majority handle on MONEY LINES: 1473-686 (68.2%), +40.47 units – ROI: +1.9%
– November-January Majority handle on TOTALS: 3619-3531 (50.6%), -265.1 units – ROI: -3.7%
– February & later Majority handle on TOTALS: 1113-1023 (52.1%), -12.3 units – ROI: -0.6%
For each of the above metrics, the performance uptick is at least 3.0% improved in the last two months. As I indicated, the numbers for majority number of bets on point spreads, money lines, and totals ran essentially parallel to these. This uptick in performance level at around the February 1st mark could seem random when judged simply by the turning of a calendar, but when you look at it from a perspective that the sports calendar frees up a lot in February, and bettors have more chance to give their full attention to the college basketball betting board each day, you’ll find a lot more foundation to the findings. I found similar seasonal numbers in the NBA, too, so perhaps there is something to these findings. Juggling football and basketball wagering may be spreading bettors too thin.
DK CBB Betting Splits system #3: As has been established over the last season and a half, DK bettors continue to struggle terribly on Thursdays in college hoops season, losing big on all side majorities. They have also fared poorly on both totals metrics this season:
– Thursday Majority handle on point spreads: 529-615 ATS (46.2%), -147.5 units – ROI: -12.9%
– Thursday Majority number of bets on point spreads: 543-596 ATS (47.7%), -112.6 units – ROI: -9.9%
– Thursday Majority handle on money lines: 757-396 (65.6%). -218.52 units – ROI: -18.9%
– Thursday Majority number of bets on money lines: 783-359 (68.6%). -165.19 units – ROI: -14.5%
– Thursday 2025-26 season Majority handle on totals: 184-192 (48.9%), -27.2 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Thursday 2025-26 season Majority number of bets on totals: 164-212 ATS (43.6%), -69.2 units – ROI: -18.4%
All these numbers were well below the overall standards set. This may seem random, but typically much of the Thursday lineup involves west coast teams & conferences, and perhaps even more mid-majors, which I would tend to guess that public bettors know less about. This continues to be an area to watch closely (and fade) for the rest of the 2025-26 season. If you’re wondering, the day of the week in which bettors fared best was Sunday on point spreads, Monday’s on money lines and totals, this when considering ROI. None of that came close to making up for the Thursday struggles, however.
DK CBB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been full 2.7 percentage points worse on neutral court games than all others over the last season and a half. In these usually higher-profile contests, this group posted a record of 499-578 ATS (46.3%), resulting in a -136.8 unit loss and a -12.7% ROI. This lot of 1,077 games is a significant sample size to lose over 12.5% in.
DK CBB Betting Splits system #5: In a somewhat rare situation, when there has been a majority number of bets backing a double-digit road underdog in the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group has produced a profit in a 119-97 ATS (55.1%) performance, good for +12.3 units and a ROI of 5.7%. This lot of 216 games was only around 2% of the total sample size.
DK CBB Betting Splits system #6: The number 60% or higher has been a key super-majority number for home teams over the last season and a half in college basketball, with number of bets groups of that magnitude struggling to a 1839-2034 ATS record, good for just 47.5%. This has produced a loss of -398.4 units and an ROI of -10.3%, well below the overall majority figures.
DK CBB Betting Splits system #7: The number 57% or higher has been a key super-majority number for true road teams last season and a half in college basketball, with number of bets groups of that magnitude thriving with a 1026-991 ATS record, good for just 50.9%. This produced a minimal loss of -64.1 units and an ROI of -3.1%, still losing data but well above the overall majority figures.
DK CBB Betting Splits system #8: Money line majorities on large road favorites (more than 5 points on line) have fared very well the last 1-1/2 seasons in college basketball. These majority handle groups are 977-361 SU for +75.92 units, an ROI of +5.7%. This can be a dangerous angle, however, as typically these groups can fall hard with just a few unexpected losses, but still have produced solid results. Perhaps road favorites are better money line wagers than home hosts based on the lower prices.
DK CBB Betting Splits system #9: Money line majorities on small neutral court underdogs (+6.5 on point spread or less) also continue to fare well in college hoops. These majority handle groups are 43-49 SU for +10.33 units, an ROI of +11.2% over the last season and a half. This is obviously a pretty solid late-season angle for tournament action.
DK CBB Betting Splits system #10: In college basketball games over the last season and a half with “low” totals, or those less than 130, majority handle bettors have gone a respectable 153-139 (52.4%), while majority number of bets groups were a bit better at 159-135 (54.1%). Both groups were proven incredibly profitable regardless of which side of the total they chose.
DK CBB Betting Splits system #11: When a super majority (>=54%) of number of bets groups were backing the Under in a CBB game over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group has gone just 1127-1189 (48.7%), for a loss of -180.9 units and ROI of -7.8%. This result is well below the common majority records. Be aware of when too many bettors are expecting Unders in games, as they have lost big.
DK CBB Betting Splits system #12: Postseason college basketball games this past season were the best illustration of how majority bettors groups struggled on point spreads but fared well on money lines. In games of conference tournaments, the CBI and Crown tournaments, plus the NCAA’s and NIT, majority handle bettors went just 190-225 ATS (45.8%), for a loss of -57.5 units and ROI of -13.9%. Alternatively, in those same games, majority number of bets groups on money lines were Both this result and those in #11 were 297-122 (70.9%) for +40.44 units and a ROI of 9.7%. This is a huge swing of 23.6% just by choosing to back teams whose sole mission it was to win and advance, not cover.
The betting splits on VSiN.com are running live and will change in the days and hours before game time. If you adopt any of these strategies this season, be sure to visit VSiN.com for the latest numbers.
The data, which we get directly from DraftKings Sportsbook and now Circa as well, is updated every five minutes.
Also, if you want to see the opening line and the line history, click on the visiting team’s logo. The updates are timestamped. A nice touch is that – if the game is over – you will get a summary that includes the final score, Total result, season Over/Under record for each team, and you can compare the result to what Steve Makinen’s estimated score was.
