2026 College Basketball Final Four Futures Odds and Predictions:
One of the focal points for bettors this time of year is their college basketball futures portfolio. Even though they can also include season win totals and conference outrights, our portfolios tend to emphasize the national championship winner. The reason being just about every bettor finds intrinsic value in selecting a winner well in advance.
However, the quantifiable truth is only one team cashes a national champion ticket, leading all the others to be graded as losers. That means futures bettors must be aware of reaching the point of diminishing returns, even if they have the goal of monetizing a handful of national championship plays along the way. Be aware that there is no guarantee that it can actually happen.
Hedging multiple times in one tournament can eat away potential profit. Also, if any of those futures plays are sizable underdogs, a bettor is then required to take a favorite that could be as high as -300, which requires plenty of cash upfront to see just a small profit.
These monetization-related hurdles make one of the more recent changes in the college basketball futures market a positive development for those building a profit-minded portfolio.
The Make the Final Four futures board, that not long ago was only available at DraftKings for the most part, is now obtainable at all the major national sportsbooks.
Let’s take a look at this budding futures option as a way to diversify a college basketball futures portfolio.
Four Play
First off, bettors should be open to playing this market because, unlike the singular national championship winner, four cash here.
Sure, the odds are around one-quarter less than the primary market, but I’ve always been of the mindset that a winning ticket, regardless of the number, is better than a losing ticket, regardless of the number.
Final Four plays can also be monetized more efficiently since it could take place in a regional final after just three games. Also, there is the chance of having multiple winners while not overextending on national championship plays that ultimately cannibalize each other over the course of the tournament’s final rounds.
All Final Four odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Tier 1
Bracketology season has begun and four teams—Arizona, Duke, Michigan and Connecticut—have emerged as the Number 1 seeds according to BracketMatrix.com.
Handicapping Final Four teams should start by examining who is in line for a Number 1 seed. Around 40% of all Number 1 seeds have made the Final Four since the tournament field expanded in 1985.
Nonetheless, stockpiling Number 1 seeds is not a judicious approach. Once the tournament field grew to 64 teams, the average sum of the seeds of the Final Four teams is 12.4.
The work now is examining if any of the top squads are worth the short price.
Arizona (-120)
Prior to the Wildcats’ big road trip to Brigham Young, they were available at even money right behind Michigan at -110. After defeating the Cougars 86-83, Arizona is now an odds-on favorite.
Any concerns about the young core of Koa Peat, Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries eventually being overwhelmed by their lofty status were alleviated by their recent work in Provo. KenPom’s top-ranked team could very well pull off the same accomplishments of another group of undomesticated felines, the 2012 Kentucky squad that won a national championship led by a group of freshmen featuring Anthony Davis.
Michigan (+110)
These current odds for the Wolverines and Arizona offer very little return and make no sense from a futures standpoint for a tournament field still weeks away from being formed.
I recently asked noted handicapper Doug Kezirian, a contestant in the Circa Football Invitational, the rhetorical question of who would bet Arizona or Michigan at this point for that price? His response: “bettors with FOMO.”
Making wagers with FOMO on the mind is not the way to build a futures portfolio.
So, as a college basketball bettor, don’t feel obligated to play Michigan or Arizona in the futures market. Avoid that mindset from this point on and prioritize daily wagers for this dynamic duo. It doesn’t have to be betting on them, especially Michigan, which has gone seven straight games without covering the spread.
The positive aspect of this market is there are still multiple teams that will cash a ticket even if these two favorites follow through with the books’ expectations and make a trip to Indianapolis.
Duke (+175)
On the same day Arizona made a major statement with its win at BYU, the Blue Devils, another freshman-centric team, demolished Louisville 83-52 to move to 19-1.
The second-tallest team in the country clearly meets the KenPom criteria for a national champ by having both a Top 5 offense and defense. Still, from an ROI standpoint, this wager doesn’t scream value.
The Blue Devils, as one of the most public teams in college basketball, have their odds taxed for that reason.
Connecticut (+250)
On the other hand, Danny Hurley’s team would be a good addition to a futures portfolio.
UConn’s value here relates to understanding the differences between handicapping the national championship market versus the Final Four.
The Huskies are available at over 2/1 because their metrics—particularly on offense—aren’t as high as the three aforementioned teams. However, a bettor’s focus should be if a team has a path to a regional championship by comparing it to those who will likely be seeded 2-5, not if it is superior to the three other regional winners.
At this point, UConn, emerging from a weakened Big East, could very well have the smoothest path to a Number 1 seed compared to Arizona, Michigan and Duke.
KenPom has the Huskies winning all their remaining games. Even if they slip up against St. John’s, they should still end the regular season with a gaudy record and the motivation to win the Big East tournament because of its importance to a Number.1 seed.
At +250, I’m willing to back Connecticut’s defense, Hurley’s decision making, and what the veteran core of Solo Ball, Silas Demary, Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed can bring during tournament play.
A benefit of making a futures play like this now, one’s units won’t be tied up for a considerable amount of time.
Tier 2
Houston (+230)
Projected Seed: 3
The Cougars are listed here even though they have shorter odds than UConn because there are a number of Big 12 roadblocks still in their way. Once again, including the KenPom look-ahead scores, Houston has four more losses coming, which could keep them away from a Number 2 seed. That is why I am wagering on UConn instead of the team bookmakers appear to prefer.
For those who want to back Houston and its newfound offense behind freshman Kingston Flemings, focus more on splitting units up and playing them in the key games ahead (Feb. 7th @BYU, Feb. 16th @Iowa State, Feb. 21st against Arizona). The Cougars winning those games is correlated to the +230.
Iowa State (+300)
Projected Seed: 2
The value is gone at this point for a program that has a track record of breaking down because of its ultra-intense style.
Gonzaga (+340)
Projected Seed: 2
So far the Zags have done well without the injured Braden Huff and Graham Ike. Their new smaller lineup should continue to prosper during WCC contests, but this wager is about how deep they can go in the tournament.
Illinois (+380)
Projected Seed: 3
A play I recently made because a Number 2 or even a Number 1 seed remains a possibility. The nation’s top ranked offense led by sensational freshman Keaton Wagler and the rest of Brad Underwood’s Eastern European posse has the same upside as any of the teams previously mentioned.
Tier 3
Perhaps this area, populated by power conference contenders, offers the most amount of value.
Purdue (+450)
Projected Seed: 2
The Boilermakers surprisingly find themselves this low after suffering a three-game losing streak based on a defense not keeping up with an elite offense. For those confident Purdue will survive this midseason swoon, first play the Boilernakers at what should be a plus price when they travel to Nebraska on February 10th. Then reassess their futures value from there.
Florida (+500)
Projected Seed: 5
February is when the Gators’ momentum really picked up last year en route to their title. Somewhat quietly, this team is now a Top 10 KenPom squad with the backcourt of Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland getting past some early season bumps.
Nebraska (+500)
Projected Seed: 5
Fun team to watch. Prior to the Cornhuskers game against Michigan, they were 9/1 for the Final Four.
Michigan State (+600)
Projected Seed: 3
The Spartans are the Number 1 ranked defense in the country but 43rd in offense. Tom Izzo love comes heavy this time of year, but he has not been to the Final Four since 2019.
Kansas (+750)
Projected Seed: 4
Kansas’ future is contingent on Darryn Peterson taking the court for every game.
BYU (+850)
Projected Seed: 3
This was +650 before the Cougars comeback attempt against Arizona ultimately fell short.
Vanderbilt (+850)
Projected Seed: 4
Interest in Vandy has lessened following a three-game losing streak.
Texas Tech (+850)
Projected Seed: 4
Here is an opportunity to maximize this market by backing a squad that might not have the defense to actually win a national championship but could once again make a regional final. Those odds are long enough to take now with the goal of monetizing in-tournament.
Arkansas (+950)
Projected Seed: 5
Another team led by a freshman star (Darius Acuff) with legitimate Final Four potential. My prediction is John Calipari’s team will be one of the most selected Final Four teams in office pools across the country.
Alabama (+1000)
Projected Seed: 5
Regardless of one’s take on the controversy, the addition of Charles Bediako improves Bama’s March potential. Now, how will a new judge who isn’t a donor, but still a graduate of the university, rule on his case?
Virginia (+1000)
Projected Seed: 4
Ryan Odom has turned this team around quickly but that doesn’t mean a futures wager is needed at this point.
Everyone else
Of all the relative longshots remaining, one is worth a very small play. That is Saint Louis (+4000), which could utilize its unique offense to pull off a surprise tournament run. Behind coach Josh Schertz’s schemes and Robbie Avila’s production, the Billikens nail 3-pointers (40.1 shooting percentage) and find ways to get plenty of layups.
CBB Analytics has Saint Louis ranked as one of the top overall teams in the nation.
Currently, BracketMatrix has Saint Louis seeded 7th, but remember, an inexpensive wager like this is done with the hopes of monetizing it down the road.
Those in the media have yet to roll out their cliches such as Cinderella or Sleeper, when they do, expect to hear plenty of pundits praise the A-10’s most explosive squad. When that does happen, the 40/1 will be gone.
Takeaway
Rather than load up on national championship future plays, look to be more active in the Final Four market now that it is listed at all the major national sportsbooks.
A strategy could include a favorite such as UConn that has 2/1 odds with a Number 1 seed in sight. Then add in a team(s) from Tier 2 that has potential to make a deep tournament run along with odds that justify a futures wager. Illinois fits that criteria.
Round out a futures portfolio with a couple of smaller plays from talented teams with high enough odds that create potential for monetization late in regional play – that could be BYU or Texas Tech.
If someone wants to play a bomb such as Saint Louis, don’t be starstruck by its 180/1 odds for a national championship; be more realistic, and play a team of this mold in the Final Four market, where it is much more possible to capitalize on just a couple of tournament wins.
