2026 College Basketball Futures Odds and Predictions:
Now that college football is generating so much attention as it moves to its Final Four, let’s still carve out some handicapping time for the sport that first originated that concept.
College basketball enters the national betting conversation around late October, when the season is about to tip off, only to soon dissipate as football becomes a higher priority.
However, as most VSiN users have come to learn, going against public momentum can be an advantageous handicapping strategy.
So before we find out who makes the college football championship game or how well Sam Darnold performs in the playoffs, a new examination of the college basketball futures board is an optimal way to begin the betting New Year.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings
Major Moves
When the season began, preseason favorites Purdue and Houston sat atop the national championship odds board in the 10/1 range, with the next pack including Duke, Connecticut, Florida and Michigan coming in around 15/1. Those teams – other than the Gators +2500 – still reside in the favorites category, but much has changed in how bookmakers have priced this market.
The Wolverines, +340 behind a 13-0 start and wins over Auburn and Gonzaga, have raced away from the pack. Certainly good news for those who backed Dusty May and company before the season started. At the same time, those current odds place Michigan in no-go territory for the rest of the betting public.
To put the Wolverines’ odds in perspective, the +340 in early January is lower than the +500 bookmakers placed on the 1990 UNLV squad at the start of the tournament, according to sportsoddshistory.com. Those Runnin’ Rebels are what I believe to be the best college basketball team of recent history.
Yes, Yaxel Lendeborg and Aday Mara are outstanding, but should they be priced lower than Larry Johnson and Greg Anthony were?
Another way to describe how playing +340 for a national championship in early January makes no sense is to compare that with Indiana around +150 to win the CFB. The Hoosiers, as the short favorite, need to win just two more games to cash that ticket, while the Wolverines are priced only twice as much, and there are still 18 regular-season games remaining and a tournament field nowhere near bracketed.
Michigan is even more prohibitive of a favorite to win the Big Ten at -190.
It is highly unlikely that the Wolverines finish the season undefeated, so their odds might tick up following a loss or two; nonetheless, it seems unlikely that Michigan will be priced in a way that will attract value-minded bettors.
Playing Michigan futures now translates to waiting until the tournament starts and reassessing each line of the bracket.
It will also be interesting to gauge if Circa posts the “No” odds to win the national championship when the public market has set Michigan at such ridiculously low odds,
Following Michigan is Arizona (+850), a program many futures bettors are leery of due to the Wildcats tournament history under Tommy Lloyd. The dominant play of freshman Koa Peat has changed perceptions of Arizona’s potential. The Wildcats, with another freshman star Brayden Burries in the backcourt, are currently KenPom’s second-ranked team behind Michigan.
Like the Wolverines, hold off on making any Arizona futures to win the national championship. Big 12 conference play just started, and the Wildcats still have trips to BYU, Kansas, Houston and Baylor awaiting. The immense level of talent throughout the Big 12 and so many contenders playing each other over the next two months will lead to plenty of volatility on the national championship odds board.
That brings Iowa State (+1200), KenPom’s Number 3 team behind these aforementioned clubs, into the conversation. The Cyclones are also undefeated and claim the best win so far of the college basketball season to their credit with an 81-58 drubbing of Purdue at Mackey Arena.
Again, this is a futures wager to applaud those who were proactive and made it when Iowa State was 40/1. Currently, ISU still has the Big 12 gauntlet awaiting, and bettors need to be advised of the impact T.J. Otzelberger’s aggressive style could have on the season-long production of Joshua Jefferson and Tamin Lipsey. The Cyclones have a recent history of looking unstoppable in January, only to burn out in March.
Valuable Losses
Perhaps the best value on the national championship futures board lies within the next group – all major contenders who have fallen behind Michigan and Arizona because of an early-season loss.
Connecticut (+1000) has wins over BYU and Florida and a hot start in Big East play, but comes in at double-digit odds due in large part to its mid-November home loss to Arizona. Keep in mind that big man Tarris Reed was unable to play against the Wildcats. Reed and his 14.0 ppg and 7.6 rpg are now back for UConn.
Working in UConn’s favor, besides a national championship-winning coach, is playing in a conference that has fallen down the power rankings. St. John’s (+7500) has faltered to a 9-5 record.
A weak Big East is putting the Huskies on a fast track to a No.1 tournament seed come March. Fewer losses along the way for them compared to those in the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12 makes the +210 wager on UConn to make the Final Four a viable play.
Another team whose conference schedule could set it up for a No.1 seed is Duke (+1100). The odds-on-favorite to win the ACC (-110) has double-digit odds because of its loss at Madison Square Garden to Texas Tech.
The Blue Devils travel to Louisville on January 6th for a major matchup. Keep this in mind for game day wager, this will be the Cardinals’ first home game back after their trip to California and Stanford.
Public money will come in on Duke once the football season ends, so there is some timeliness needed to get the Blue Devils at this current price.
Bookmakers also raised the odds on Purdue (+1300) and Houston (+1400) following an early-season loss to Top 20 foes (the Boilermakers fell to Iowa State and the Cougars lost to Tennessee). Those odds corrections can work in the bettors’ favor if they want to get these preseason favorites at a lower price.
There is no reason to believe Purdue, behind the veteran trio of Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn, is any worse than when the season started, and the Boilermakers at 10/1 sat atop the odds board.
Following the Iowa State loss, the Boilermakers easily covered the next five games, including a 89-73 drubbing of Wisconsin (+12000) in Madison.
Houston has fallen down the KenPom metrics to 12th behind BYU (+2800) and Louisville (+3000). Still, this is a team to consider backing since its defense is still within the Top 10 and is moving at a faster offensive pace than years past, with the freshman Kingston Flemings playing a key role.
I recently added BYU (+650) to my portfolio for the Final Four wager. Originally, I was hesitant about backing a team led by a freshman in AJ Dybantsa. However, a number of contenders are also reliant on first-year players, and the Cougars’ offense can shoot its way to a regional final, creating an opportunity to monetize a +650 wager.
Gonzaga +1500 rounds out the top tier of contenders. Ironically, this Zags team came into the season with fewer expectations than the program is accustomed to receiving. However, this might be the best group to bring Mark Few back to the Final Four for the first time since 2021.
With the Bulldogs now entrenched in WCC play, KenPom has them playing only one more close regular-season game, the finale on the road at Saint Mary’s.
The -750 favorite to win the WCC regular season is now at the junction of the season when those 15/1 odds will start eroding away.
In the Mix
Here is the next group of contenders coming in at 20/1 to 50/1.
Michigan State +2000
Illinois +2200
BYU +2800
Arkansas +2800
Alabama +2800
Florida +3000
Kansas +2500
Louisville +3000
Vanderbilt +3000
Virginia +4000
Tennessee +4000
North Carolina +4000
Kansas +4000
Texas Tech +5000
Nebraska +5000
Kentucky +5000
A handicapper could make a valid case for every one of these teams winning it all.
Within this group, consider the value offered by Illinois (+2200) and what the Eastern European flair could offer. Brad Underwood’s team is KenPom’s second-rated offense and a Top 25 defense. The Fighting Illini offense, led by Andrej Stojakovic, is dangerous because they are not overly reliant on 3-pointers and score in a number of ways. Sticking to the theme of not being afraid to add freshmen-reliant squads to a futures portfolio, Illinois’ Keaton Wagler and David Mirkovic have emerged as two of the better offensive weapons in the Big Ten.
Within this group, I am already striking a line through Kentucky and Kansas. Kentucky has great offensive pieces, but injuries and a selfish style of offense have taken them off the contenders list. The only way for the Wildcats to revive their season is to get Jaland Lowe and Jayden Quaintance to consistently log more playing time.
Freshman star Darryn Peterson missed nearly a month’s worth of games for Kansas only to leave early in his return appearance against Central Florida over the weekend. That is a major concern for a player living out of a suitcase in Lawrence, as his near future is all about the NBA Draft Lottery.
The upcoming game between Vanderbilt and Alabama in Nashville will have major implications regarding which team will then be positioned right outside the favorites category. KenPom has Vandy winning 92-86.
2026 College Basketball Wooden Award
Much like the national championship futures board, the top choice here is unplayable at this time.
Duke freshman Cameron Boozer has steamrolled to being a -160 favorite to win the John R. Wooden Award. Then comes BYU’s AJ Dybantsa (+220) next on the board.
Purdue’s Smith (+1000) is a distant third, followed by Iowa State’s Jefferson (+1600) and North Carolina freshman Caleb Wilson (+2500).
While I am a proponent of buying Purdue on the dip, the same is not true for Smith. He is playing as solidly as expected (12.6 ppg and 9.6 apg), but the hype surrounding the Boozer means that the narrative has been set in his favor. Also, the balance of Matt Painter’s offense limits Smith’s chances of scoring more, like the necessary 18 points a game.
It will likely take an injury to Boozer (23.0 ppg), where he misses at least four to five games, to allow Dybantsa to step in and create a scenario like last season, when Cooper Flagg and Johni Broome jockeyed for the top spot.
A healthy Boozer for the remainder of the season means the Wooden board won’t look anything like the most recent Heisman race when multiple contenders played the role of favorite before Fernando Mendoza locked it up during the Big Ten championship game.
The Wayman Tisdale Award (top freshman) board obviously looks the same with Boozer (-250) leading, followed by Dybantsa (+210), Darius Acuff Jr. (Arkansas +1200) and Wilson (+1500).
For those looking to add to their future portfolios now, there are better alternatives than these subjective markets dominated by someone playing for college basketball’s marquee program.
Conference Boards
Here are two futures to consider for the regular-season conference winner board.
Navy +165 to win the Patriot League – the Midshipmen are the most experienced team in the conference, off to a 2-0 start, yet come in at these odds because Colgate (-250) is already listed as a considerable favorite.
Much of that number has to do with Colgate’s reputation of consistently winning the Patriot League and a 2-0 record to start league play. Though those two wins came against Lafayette and Army, a pair of the conference’s weakest teams.
The rationale for backing the Midshipmen at +165 is they have a better defense than the Raiders and host Colgate for the final game of the Patriot League regular season schedule.
Belmont +280 to win the Missouri Valley Conference – here is another case of a futures wager based on an early-season dip. The Bears lost the first game of the MVC season at Indiana State in overtime, to then be priced behind Illinois State (+225) and Murray State (+250) on the odds board. Belmont, KenPom’s top MVC-ranked team, rebounded from the OT loss to beat Bradley.
This number has some value, with at least four teams vying for the regular-season conference crown.
