2026 College Basketball National Championship Future Value Bets:
The championship futures landscape in college hoops is a wild ride. Unlike college football, where you can practically sketch out Ohio State’s path to the College Football Playoff, the NCAA tournament throws 68 teams into a blender, serving up chaos every spring. The sheer volume of contenders, the single-elimination format, and the huge stylistic contrasts make forecasting a champion far more unpredictable than in any other sport. Navigating this market means embracing the madness, not pretending there’s a tidy roadmap.
My strategy is to sift through different pockets of value at several levels. I’ll normally back a top program that’s flying slightly under the radar, angle for a mid-tier team with legit upside, and sprinkle in a sleeper with the talent or system to shock the public. This year, I’m completely passing on the top-tier squads and opting to take three shots further down the board. Sometimes, these tickets aren’t really about finding teams that’ll actually end up cutting down the nets, it’s about snatching a solid price and keeping hedging options in play as the tournament unfolds.
Let’s dive into some early futures I’m punching for 2025-26:
NC State Wolfpack (60/1)
Will Wade is a proven winner, and he’s earned a reputation as a master of talent acquisition. While his earlier methods raised some eyebrows, there’s nobody better equipped to thrive in the NIL era. Now back at a high-major program, with substantial support from NC State’s boosters, Wade is positioned to make a big impact.
Wade is expected to turn NC State into a powerhouse, but just how quickly he’ll get there is a fair question. It could happen immediately.
Tre Holloman is slated to start at point guard. The senior arrives after averaging 9.1 points and 3.7 assists per game for Michigan State last season, bringing smart playmaking and hard-nosed defense to the Wolfpack. At shooting guard, NC State has two strong choices in Matt Able (the 24th-ranked player in the ESPN 100) and Paul McNeil. Able offers three-level scoring, while McNeil’s floor spacing could get him the nod; he has the potential to be one of the ACC’s best shooters.
The forward spots will be filled with high-level transfers: Terrance Arceneaux from Houston and Darrion Williams from Texas Tech. Arceneaux’s defense on the wing should be elite, and he’s got the tools to contribute offensively. Though his career was interrupted by a torn ACL, a bigger opportunity awaits in Raleigh. Williams, Texas Tech’s best offensive player last year, posted 15.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.6 assists. He’s dangerous from beyond the arc and strong enough to excel as a small-ball four.
In the middle, Ven-Allen Lubin transfers in after a controversial move from UNC. He averaged 8.7 points and 5.5 rebounds per game last season. Lengthy, capable off the dribble, and solid in the post, Lubin’s two-way ability should make him a strong starter.
Following Wade from McNeese State, Quadir Copeland also projects as a key contributor. He’s athletic, brings energy on defense, and manages to make things happen offensively even without a reliable jumper.
Defense could be this team’s calling card, which makes sense given Wade’s history: in his final season at LSU, his team ranked sixth in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.
The lone question is whether NC State will be strong enough offensively. Williams helps in that department, and with several breakout candidates on the roster, it’s likely the Wolfpack challenge for top ACC status right away.
At 60/1, these odds could look generous by March.
Wisconsin Badgers (75/1)
Wisconsin ranked 12th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin last season and was top 25 nationally in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. John Tonje’s departure is a major loss after putting up 19.6 points and 5.3 rebounds per game on elite shooting splits — he had one of the most statistically impressive campaigns in school history. The departure of assistant coach Kirk Penney, who helped modernize Wisconsin’s offense, is another key storyline.
Penney’s impact was clear, with Wisconsin jumping from 226th to 16th in threes attempted nationally. Greg Gard says that the offensive changes will remain even after Penney returns to New Zealand. If Gard sticks with the system, the Badgers should be able to fill the void left by Tonje — and possibly do more damage in March.
Stars John Blackwell and Nolan Winter are back after standout sophomore seasons. Blackwell averaged 15.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game and looks primed to be the main scorer. He’s a skilled shooter and an intelligent scorer. Winter brings 9.4 points and 5.8 rebounds per game as a stretch five with touch inside.
Gard reloaded via the transfer portal: Nick Boyd (San Diego State), Andrew Rohde (Virginia), and Austin Rapp (Portland) fill out the starting five. Boyd is a tenacious competitor at point and brings Final Four experience from his days at Florida Atlantic. Rohde, who shot 41.3% from 3 last year, offers solid playmaking and improved defense. Rapp, who averaged 13.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.5 blocks, projects as a strong frontcourt fit next to Winter; his shooting gives Wisconsin five legitimate 3-point options at all times along with help protecting the rim.
Few college lineups can match the Badgers’ range and versatility, and Gard’s teams consistently play smart, fundamentally sound basketball. At 75/1, there’s value here — especially if rotation players can provide steady minutes, giving Wisconsin a higher ceiling than most expect.
Oregon Ducks (100/1)
It’s a bit strange that Oregon is available at 100/1 despite welcoming back Jackson Shelstad and Nate Bittle to Eugene. Shelstad averaged 13.7 points per game last season, posting efficient shooting splits of 45.1% from the field, 37.9% from 3, and 83.5% from the line, which earned him All-Big Ten Third Team honors. Bittle joined Shelstad on that same team, averaging 14.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, and leading the conference with 2.1 blocks per game. Shelstad is an impressive shotmaker who’s becoming more polished as a floor general. Bittle, meanwhile, is an excellent finisher around the rim, dangerous as a pick-and-pop option, and a true anchor defensively.
Oregon’s greatest strength comes at two of the most critical spots: point guard and center. Pairing that foundation with head coach Dana Altman — who has won 20+ games in each of his 15 seasons at Oregon — sets the Ducks up with a remarkably high floor. Last season, they finished 27th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency rankings.
Don’t overlook the team’s upside, either, since Chinese flamethrower Wei Lin and transfer Takai Simpkins will add to Oregon’s backcourt arsenal. Lin put up 21.6 points per game in the CBA, so he’s proven himself against pro competition. Simpkins averaged 16.4 points and shot 36.7% from deep for Elon, and that kind of scoring should translate well to Big Ten play.
Transfers Devon Pryor and Sean Stewart — both athletic and skilled — could thrive with Oregon after limited roles at Texas and Ohio State, respectively. Altman’s history of maximizing transfers is well documented.
One big wild card: Is this the season Kwame Evans breaks out? Evans was a top-15 recruit, but has yet to fully emerge for the Ducks. At the very least, he should be able to take pressure off Bittle when it comes to doing some dirty work. Though Altman will be expecting a little more than that.
Oregon could also get a boost from Dezdrick Lindsay, who didn’t play last year after transferring from Florida Southwestern, but was one of the top JUCO players in the nation. There’s a real chance Altman takes advantage of his scoring punch this season.
With a mix of proven stars and intriguing newcomers, Oregon offers a compelling blend of reliability and upside. Shelstad and Bittle will keep the Ducks competitive, but if Altman gets the most out of his athletic wings, their potential far exceeds public perception.
