2026 MAAC Conference Basketball Tournament Odds & Predictions

The MAAC Conference Tournament is back at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City for the sixth straight year, as the conference’s lone NCAA Tournament bid will be decided. Mount St. Mary’s won last year, ending a string of eight straight years in which Iona or Saint Peter’s was the representative from the conference. Six of those were Iona, who won from 2016-19 and again in 2021 and 2023 after the 2020 event was canceled due to COVID. The Peacocks won in 2022 and 2024.

Only 10 of the 13 teams qualify here, so Niagara, Canisius, and Rider are all finished with their seasons. This format is a lot like the format in the Summit League, where the advantage for the top two seeds is that they play their quarterfinal games on Friday and are off on Saturday before the Sunday semis and Tuesday title game. The top six seeds get byes to the quarterfinals, with No. 1 and No. 2 playing the first round winners who are playing back-to-back days.

How to Watch the MAAC Conference Tournament

When: March 5-10

Where: Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, NJ (repeat venue for years)

Format: Seeds 7 through 10 play in the first round; No. 1 and No. 2 play Friday quarterfinals, No. 3 through No. 6 play Saturday quarterfinals with the semis on Sunday and the title game on Tuesday

Watch: ESPN+; Championship Game on ESPN/ESPN2 on Mar. 10 at TBD p.m. ET

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MAAC Conference Tournament Bracket

Coming soon.

MAAC Conference Tournament Seeds, Teams and Odds

1. Merrimack (+310)

2. Saint Peter’s (+650)

3. Siena (+330)

4. Quinnipiac (+650)

5. Marist (+475)

6. Mount St. Mary’s (+1500)

7. Fairfield (+1100)

8. Iona (+1800)

9. Sacred Heart (+5000)

10. Manhattan (+16000)

Current Odds

(odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate at time of publish)

Favorite To Win MAAC Conference Tournament

Merrimack went 17-3 in conference play, finishing three games better than anybody else in the conference. As such, the Warriors are a deserving favorite and enter as the clear highest-ranked team per both Torvik and KenPom. In fact, for KenPom, they are the only top-200 team in the conference, while Torvik also has Marist just barely inside that cut-off. 

Interestingly, one of Merrimack’s three losses was to Canisius, who didn’t even qualify. The others were Iona by a point on the road and Saint Peter’s by 13, but they avenged that loss 13 days later. The extra days off are really big for Merrimack here if they make a deep run because they have three guys – Kevair Kennedy, Ernest Shelton, and Tye Dorset – who have played over 90% of the available minutes and the status of KC Ugwuakazi is in doubt. The Warriors led the conference in TO% on both offense and defense and ranked third or better in virtually every key metric except rebounding, where they were subpar on both ends of the floor.

MAAC Conference Tournament Darkhorse

Siena is hardly a darkhorse by definition, but one-time March hero Gerry McNamara has a very good offensive team with his Saints. Saint Peter’s is good on defense like usual, but leaves a lot to be desired on offense. Marist is the best defensive team in the conference, holding opponents to just 28.2% from 3, hence their short price.

But, I will say that Sacred Heart is a very interesting long shot. The Pioneers shot 37.2% from 3 in conference play and were very solid offensively, but very awful defensively. This is a fairly stingy venue for scoring, as we’ve seen one team crack 70 points in the conference championship game in the five years at Boardwalk Hall. Some of that has to do with style of play, but if Sacred Heart can shoot well and get some help from the venue or some positive variance defensively, they have some upside at +5000. It’s just tough being on the No. 9 line running into Merrimack right away if they can get past Iona and tough taking a 3-pointer over 50% of the time in this setting.

Betting Pick to Win The MAAC Conference Tournament

Merrimack takes a lot of 3s. Last season as the No. 2 seed here, they squeaked past Sacred Heart in OT before losing a 57-55 rock fight to Mount St. Mary’s in the 6 vs. 2 semifinal matchup. We can expect the unexpected here. No. 11 Marist made the title game back in 2023. The last two winners have been No. 5 and No. 6 seeds. 

Initially, I liked Quinnipiac, but the Bobcats have a major injury with Amarri Monroe (15.6 PPG, 8.2 RPG) and he’s questionable for the tournament. If he plays, and he’s near 100%, I do like them. As another example, all six of Saint Peter’s losses came on the road, so every team is flawed here. Furthermore, Marist got pummeled by Merrimack and lost both games to Siena and Saint Peter’s.

So, it’s kind of a crapshoot here. As the least flawed team, Merrimack gets the nod, but we could see a surprise winner.

Pick: Merrimack (+310)

Makinen Power Ratings for MAAC

Coming soon.

  • The smallest of favorites have been the most successful of late in the MAAC tournament, with those laying 2 points or fewer going 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS (83.3%) since 2014.
  • Other single-digit MAAC tourney favorites (-2.5 or higher) are just 35-28 SU but 23-38-2 ATS (37.7%) since 2017.
  • Byes have not been a huge reward lately for the MAAC’s top teams, as those teams off of byes playing against teams that have played already are just 13-10 SU but 8-14-1 ATS (36.4%) since 2016 in this bracket.
  • The last five Metro Atlantic tourneys have trended massively Under on totals, 37-17 (68.5%) in fact.
  • The highest totaled games (154+) in the MAAC tourney have trended significantly Under, 12-1 (92.3%) in the last 13. However, there hasn’t been such a game since 2018.

Check out the other previews in our 2026 College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Guide.

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