2026 Missouri Valley Conference Basketball Tournament Odds & Predictions
The 2026 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament begins on Thursday, March 5. The games will be played at the Enterprise Center — where VSiN Managing Editor Adam Burke loves betting Unders — in St. Louis, Missouri. Drake enters this tournament looking to finish on top for the fourth year in a row, but a lot has changed for the Bulldogs. Drake no longer has Darian DeVries or Ben McCollum on the sidelines, and the team has looked miserable this season. Instead, it’s Belmont that enters this tournament as the favorite, but there are several teams that have a real shot at coming away with the automatic NCAA Tournament bid. That should make this an action-packed couple of days, and we’ll get into our predictions below.
How to Watch the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
When: March 5-8
Where: Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri
Format: Teams seeded by records within conference; top-five seeds get opening-round byes
Watch: CBS/Paramount+, CBSSN, MVC TV Network/ESPN+; Championship Game on CBS/Paramount+ on Mar. 8 at 12:00 p.m. ET
College Basketball Odds | College Basketball Betting Splits | Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines | Steve Makinen’s Power Ratings
Missouri Valley Conference Bracket
Coming soon.
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Seeds, Teams and Odds
- Belmont Bruins (+155)
- Bradley Braves (+750)
- Illinois State Redbirds (+500)
- Murray State Racers (10-1)
- Illinois Chicago Flames (+850)
- Northern Iowa Panthers (+475)
- Valparaiso Beacons (35-1)
- Southern Illinois Salukis (18-1)
- Drake Bulldogs (200-1)
- Indiana State Sycamores (75-1)
- Evansville Purple Aces (500-1)
(odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate at time of publish)
Favorite To Win Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
Belmont had the best record in the conference this year, and the team will like its chances of winning this tournament. The Bruins are absolutely tremendous offensively, ranking first in the nation in Effective Field Goal Percentage (61.4%), fifth in 2PT% (61.1%), and second in 3PT% (41.2%). Belmont is also 40th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (121.1). Tyler Lundblade is the player to watch for this team, as he’s averaging 15.8 points per game and is highly efficient as a scorer. However, it should be noted that Nic McClain, a good shooter and a very productive playmaker, is out for the season. When games are tighter and a little more physical — as they always are in the postseason — McClain’s presence will be missed. Also, in those games, Belmont will need to find a way to lock in defensively. In terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, six MVC teams are better than the Bruins. It’s hard to win tournaments when you’re shaky on that end of the floor.
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Darkhorse
If you’re looking for one of the double-digit options in this conference, Murray State might be the best roll of the dice. The Racers are a top-75 team in the nation when looking at Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (116.2) and they’re 20th in Adjusted Tempo (71.3). They’re going to get up and down the floor in a hurry, allowing a talented backcourt of Javon Jackson and Roman Domon to thrive. Murray State also does a good job of keeping opponents off the 3-point line defensively, and the team has the ultimate dirty-work big man in center Fred King. This simply isn’t a team anyone will want to face in a one-and-done situation. The Racers actually offer a similar profile to the Bruins, but you’ll get a much better price taking a shot on Ja Morant’s alma mater.
Betting Pick to Win the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
Northern Iowa has to play an opening-round game, but I think this team can go all the way. The Panthers are the No. 1 defensive team in the conference, ranking 24th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (98.5). They’re also No. 3 in the country in 3PT% defense (28.6%). I just think the Panthers are capable of completely shutting opponents down — especially in a venue that isn’t normally kind to scorers. And Northern Iowa isn’t completely miserable offensively. The team plays at a slow pace, keeps turnovers down, and has a bunch of players that can contribute. In fact, five players on the team average at least 9.1 points per game, and any of them can lead the Panthers to a victory on any given night. Also, Northern Iowa played the best teams in this conference well during the regular season. That said, the value seems to be here.
Makinen Power Ratings for Missouri Valley Conference
Coming soon.
Steve Makinen’s Betting Trends for the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
- Only three of the 47 underdogs of 6.5-points or more in the MVC tourney since 2014 have won outright, and have gone 16-31 ATS (34%) in those games.
- The MVC tourney is typically a low-scoring bracket, and over the last 10 seasons, on totals of 131.5 or higher, Under is on a 46-22 (67.6%) run.
- Favorites in the MVC tournament championship game have gone 13-1 outright and are 12-1-1 ATS (92.3%) since 2013!
More Steve Makinen Conference Tournament Betting Trends.
Check out the other previews in our 2026 College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Guide.
