2026 Mountain West Conference Basketball Tournament Odds & Predictions
The Mountain West is underrated as a basketball conference, so this tournament could potentially turn some heads. San Diego State is the program that has had the most success in this event over the years, but it’s actually Colorado State that comes into this year’s tournament looking to repeat as champion. The team beat Boise State comfortably in last year’s finals. However, the favorite to get the job done this year is Utah State, which is also looking to win for the first time since 2020. All in all, it feels like seven or eight teams have a real shot at winning this tournament and going on to March Madness, and the talent you’ll see on the floor in Las Vegas’ Thomas & Mack Center might surprise you. So, make sure you check out the Mountain West Conference Tournament, and keep reading for our thoughts on how to bet it.
How to Watch the Mountain West Conference Tournament
When: March 11-14
Where: Thomas & Mack Center in Paradise, Nevada
Format: Teams seeded by records within conference; top-four teams receive byes into quarterfinals
Watch: Mountain West Network, CBSSN, CBS/Paramount+; Championship Game on CBS/Paramount+ on Mar. 14 at 6:00 p.m. ET
College Basketball Odds | College Basketball Betting Splits | Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines | Steve Makinen’s Power Ratings
Mountain West Conference Bracket
Coming soon.
Mountain West Conference Tournament Seeds, Teams and Odds
- Utah State Aggies (+230)
- San Diego State Aztecs (+320)
- New Mexico Lobos (+700)
- Grand Canyon Antelopes (+475)
- Nevada Wolf Pack (18-1)
- Boise State Broncos (+550)
- Colorado State Rams (25-1)
- UNLV Rebels (60-1)
- Wyoming Cowboys (70-1)
- Fresno State Bulldogs (200-1)
- San Jose State Spartans (600-1)
- Air Force Falcons (800-1)
(odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate at time of publish)
Favorite To Win Mountain West Conference Tournament
Utah State continues to lose coaches, but this program remains excellent. This year’s team is 25-6 heading into the postseason, and the Aggies are a top-25 team when looking at Bart Torvik’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (124.3). Utah State is an elite team when looking at 2PT% (59.6%), ranking 10th in the nation in that regard. The Aggies also shoot the 3 pretty well (35.5%). Then, on defense, Utah State is 20th in the country in turnover rate (20.3). The Aggies also happen to have a top-of-the-line backcourt, as MJ Collins Jr. and Mason Falslev are dynamic scorers, and Drake Allen is a good table-setting point guard. The team also has depth at guard. If there’s anywhere this team is weak, it’s in the frontcourt. Jerrod Calhoun doesn’t have many bigs that he can throw out there for 30 minutes, and there could be teams that will take advantage of that. However, those teams will also have to out-gun the guards first.
Mountain West Conference Tournament Darkhorse
Niko Medved is no longer the head coach for Colorado State, but the Rams are still an explosive offensive team. They have the second-best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (119.4) in the conference when look at Bart Torvik’s numbers, and they can get stupid hot from 3. This team is No. 22 in the nation in 3-point rate (48.6%) and shoots 39.4% from deep. That type of shooting gives you a chance in any game you play, as the math adds up and makes things tough on opponents. The Rams just need to have a week where they step things up defensively and take better care of the basketball. They’re 194th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (110.1), plus they’re 294th in Turnover Rate (18.5) on offense. It’s hard to win games like that, but the urgency of playing do-or-die games could lead to some better effort and decision making. That said, I’m not sure you can count out a run for CSU. The Rams earned wins over Grand Canyon, San Diego State, and New Mexico this year, and they also played Utah State extremely close. The gap just isn’t that big between the Rams and the top teams in the MWC.
Betting Pick to Win the Mountain West Conference Tournament
I genuinely like Colorado State as a dart throw, but Boise State is my pick to win this tournament. I’d probably make sure to have a little something on both (risk one unit on Boise and 0.25 on CSU), as they’re each in the bottom half of the bracket and I expect one of them to make the finals. With Boise, the record isn’t quite there, but the team is third in the conference when looking at Bart Torvik’s Power Ratings. The Broncos are a borderline top-50 offensive team, and they’re a top-75 defensive team. That’s pretty decent balance for a Boise group that is also third in the nation in Defensive Rebound Rate (23.6%) and 31st in Free Throw Rate (42.3%). This is just a tough Broncos group that doesn’t give up second chances, and the team can do a bit of everything on offense. Boise has a good backcourt with Dylan Andrews leading the pack, and the team also has one of the best bigs in the conference in Drew Fielder. On top of that, the Broncos are pretty loaded on the wing. I just like the size of this team to be a big factor in a tournament setting. It’s also hard not to like that they have wins over San Diego State and New Mexico this season. The only teams they have struggled with are Utah State and GCU, but they don’t have to worry about those two until the finals. If the Broncos reach that game, you’ll be able to hedge and make out pretty nicely with their current price.
Makinen Power Ratings for Mountain West Conference
Coming soon.
Steve Makinen’s Betting Trends for the Mountain West Conference Tournament
- Since 2011, Mountain West Conference tourney favorites of 5.5 points or less are on a 46-25 ATS (64.8%) surge. Only five of the last 34 such games have resulted in outright upsets.
- MWC teams facing an opponent that had an earlier round bye are just 3-21 SU and 9-15 ATS (37.5%) as underdogs of fewer than 12 points since 2014. In all other line scenarios, including when favored, they are 11-0 ATS (100%), including San Jose State’s ATS win as a 15.5-point underdog versus New Mexico in 2025.
- MWC Semifinal favorites are on a current run of 16-4 SU and 14-6 ATS (70%).
- The last seven MWC title games went Under the total (100%).
- Lofty totals of more than 150 in the MWC tourney are on a 9-2 Under (81.8%) surge.
More Steve Makinen Conference Tournament Betting Trends.
Check out the other previews in our 2026 College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Guide.
