2026 Ohio Valley Conference Basketball Tournament Odds & Predictions

The Ohio Valley Conference Tournament returns to the Ford Center in Evansville, IN for the eighth time and fourth time with this set of teams. The OVC lost Belmont and Murray State, among others, a few years ago to conference realignment, which really took a lot of the punch out of this tourney. Still, one NCAA Tournament bid is on the line and that provides all the drama that we need.

Eight of the 11 conference members qualify for the OVC Tournament, with Tennessee Tech, Southern Indiana, and Western Illinois as the “DNQ” teams. Even though there are eight teams, the top two seeds get double byes to the semifinals.

How to Watch the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament

When: March 4-7

Where: Ford Center in Evansville, IN (site since 2018)

Format: Top two seeds get byes to semis, No. 3 and No. 4 gets byes to quarterfinals, seeds 5-8 play in the first round

Watch: ESPN+, ESPNU, ESPN2; Championship Game on ESPN2 on Mar. 7 at 9 p.m. ET

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Ohio Valley Conference Tournament Bracket

Coming soon.

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament Seeds, Teams and Odds

1. Tennessee State (+220)

2. Morehead State (+400)

3. Southeast Missouri State (+400)

4. UT Martin (+370)

5. SIU Edwardsville (+1100)

6. Lindenwood (+1600)

7. Little Rock (+3500)

8. Eastern Illinois (+6500)

Current Odds

(odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate at time of publish)

Favorite To Win Ohio Valley Conference Tournament

Tennessee State and first-year head coach Nolan Smith of Duke Blue Devil fame grabbed the No. 1 seed via tiebreakers over Morehead State. A sweep of No. 4 UT Martin was the deciding factor, which could certainly benefit the Tigers if the Skyhawks are victorious in the quarterfinals. Tennessee State was pretty clearly the best offensive team in the conference, but using Torvik’s rankings, the Tigers were tops at 233 in the overall rankings, but six teams in the conference were ranked from 233 to 280. For KenPom, the Tigers ranked 207th and six teams were from 207 to 282.

In fact, for Torvik, the top four teams were only separated by 18 spots. So, Tennessee State is the favorite, but there’s a good bit of parity here. Even with a 20% TO% on defense that ranked third in the conference, the Tigers only ranked seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency because teams shot the ball so well against them. TSU split with Morehead State and SEMO State and two of their conference losses were to teams that didn’t even qualify for this field.

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament Darkhorse

With these odds and this tournament format, there isn’t really a juicy price among the “darkhorse” teams. Most teams have some sort of redeeming quality. SIU Edwardsville was No. 1 in both 3P% offense and defense during conference play. SEMO State is the most balanced team in the conference, ranking third in eFG% offense and defense. UT Martin led the conference in ORB% and eFG% defense, as well as TO%. Morehead State led the conference in 2P% and ranked second in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Lindenwood is a team that could be considered a darkhorse. They should beat Little Rock. They split with SEMO State and swept Morehead State, so the Lions have a chance to make it to the final at a pretty nice +1600 price, but they’ll be an underdog in three straight games if they beat the Trojans, so a moneyline rollover is going to yield more of a return.

Betting Pick to Win The Ohio Valley Conference Tournament

The draw for SEMO State is kinder than the draw for Tennessee State in my opinion. Morehead State is a suspect No. 2 seed and UT Martin plays a high-variance style that could trip up the Tigers. I kind of like that the Redhawks have to play a game in the quarterfinals before the semifinals so they can get accustomed to Ford Center. The fact is that most of these teams aren’t really separated by much, but I do like Brad Korn as a coach and that’s the deciding factor for me.

Pick: Southeast Missouri State (+400)

Makinen Power Ratings for Ohio Valley Conference

Coming soon.

  • Teams that have had the advantage of an earlier round bye are on a 24-4 SU and 17-11 ATS (60.7%) surge in the OVC bracket.
  • Totals in the 150’s in the Ohio Valley tournament have gone 10-2 Under (83.3%) in the last 12 chances.
  • Thirteen of the last 18 OVC tournament semifinal games have gone Under the total (72.2%).
  • Ohio Valley Conference title game underdogs are on a 13-2 ATS (86.7%) run, including SIUE (+3.5), who beat SEMO 69-48 last year.

Check out the other previews in our 2026 College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Guide.

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