2026 Summit League Conference Basketball Tournament Odds & Predictions

The Summit League Conference Tournament is back at the Denny Sanford Premier Center again, the home of this conference tourney since 2015 with the exception of 2021 when it was played at the Sanford Pentagon without fans. Defense is usually tough to come by in this conference, which is full of jump shots and low turnover rates. Ironically, the team that is the best on offense is also the best on defense, but didn’t get the No. 1 seed.

All nine teams qualify for the conference tournament, but a 9 vs. 8 matchup kicks off the tournament before others get involved. There is a scheduling quirk here with the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in action on March 5 in the quarterfinals and then the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds play on March 6 in the quarters and would have to win three games in three days for the auto bid, whereas the teams that play on the 5th get a day of rest.

How to Watch the Summit League Conference Tournament

When: March 4-8

Where: Denny Sanford Premier Center in Sioux Falls, SD (repeat venue for years)

Format: Seeds 8 and 9 play in the opening round, seeds 1 and 2 play Thursday quarterfinals, while seeds 3 and 4 play Friday quarterfinals with Saturday semis and Sunday title game

Watch: MidCo Sports/SLN, CBS Sports Network; Championship Game on CBSSN on Mar. 8 at 9 p.m. ET

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Summit League Conference Tournament Bracket

Coming soon.

Summit League Conference Tournament Seeds, Teams and Odds

1. North Dakota State (+140)

2. St. Thomas (+135)

3. North Dakota (+3500)

4. South Dakota (+2500)

5. Omaha (+1500)

6. Denver (+1100)

7. South Dakota State (+1200)

8. Oral Roberts (+13000)

9. Kansas City (+40000)

Current Odds

(odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate at time of publish)

Favorite To Win Summit League Conference Tournament

North Dakota State is the No. 1 seed, but not the favorite. That distinction goes to No. 2 seed St. Thomas, who enters the conference tourney third in the nation in eFG% offense and No. 1 in the nation in 2P%. Furthermore, St. Thomas was No. 1 in eFG% defense in conference play and second in adjusted defensive efficiency.

North Dakota State was the best defensive team from an efficiency standpoint and just a bit behind St. Thomas offensively. As the odds imply, these two teams were way better than everybody else. Nobody else in the conference ranks in the top 200 at any of the major rankings sites, while St. Thomas is a borderline top-100 team and North Dakota State is a top-120ish squad.

Summit League Conference Tournament Darkhorse

The easiest darkhorse to look at is Omaha at 15/1. The Mavericks won the conference tourney last year, though it should be said that they were the No. 1 seed then. Still, this is a better team than its record, as they were fourth in eFG% offense and third in eFG% defense during conference play. They started the season 1-7 against Division I opponents with Paul Djobet out and have posted a winning record since.

The Mavs split with St. Thomas and played well offensively in both games against North Dakota State, including a two-point loss at home. Despite two head-to-head losses against South Dakota, they should be a slight favorite in that 5/4 game.

Betting Pick to Win The Summit League Conference Tournament

St. Thomas is a deserving favorite here. The 2/7 game against South Dakota State is a potential landmine, but this team was easily No. 1 in eFG% offense and defense during conference play and had a +9.5% 3P% differential to go along with nearly a +12% 2P% differential. Their four conference losses came by 10 combined points (NDSU, ND, Omaha, Denver). They avenged the NDSU and Omaha losses in the final weekend of the regular season by 22 and 15 points, so Johnny Tauer’s team made the adjustments. Also, this is the first time that the Tommies have been eligible for the NCAA Tournament with their transition period over.

Pick: St. Thomas (+135)

Makinen Power Ratings for Summit League Conference

Coming soon.

  • Over the last two Summit League tournaments, Under the total is 13-3 (81.3%).
  • Historically, the most extreme of totals in the Summit League tournament of late have trended Under as well, with totals >=153.5 at 15-7 Under (68.2%) since 2016, and totals <=130 at 9-2 Under (81.8%) since 2014.
  • Favorites in the Summit League have had a strong run over the last five years, going 36-10 SU and 26-18 ATS (59.1%) overall.

Check out the other previews in our 2026 College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Guide.

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