Akron vs. Kent State
The Miami OH RedHawks are all the rage in the mid-major world, and especially in the MAC, but there is a very real possibility that they won’t even be favored in the conference title game if they make it there. All of the major college basketball ranking sites – and our own Steve Makinen – believe that the Akron Zips are the conference’s best team. There are still a few more games before the festivities tip off in Cleveland and this Akron vs. Kent State game is one of them.
The Golden Flashes host the rematch of the Jan. 30 game that the Zips won 69-52. Akron also won the Wagon Wheel in football, so Kent State would love to even up the season series and maybe get a crack in a rubber match in a couple weeks time. These two rivals are separated by just a handful of miles and there is no love lost between the two schools.
This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 26, 4:00 pm PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Akron (-3.5, 164.5) vs. Kent State
8 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
The first game was something of an outlier both ways for the Zips. They held Kent State to .761 points per possession, which is their absolute best defensive effort of the season against a Division I opponent. At the same time, their offensive output of 1.010 PPP is the second-lowest that they’ve had during conference play and second-lowest of the season overall. This team is typically an offensive juggernaut, but they were just 14-of-26 on 2s and 11-of-34 on 3s on that Friday night four weeks ago.
That still pales in comparison to just how awful Kent State was on offense. The Golden Flashes were 1-of-23 from 3. They ripped down 24 offensive rebounds and only scored 52 points, with just 39 of them on shots made from the floor. Kent State isn’t a sharp-shooting team by any means, as their 33.2% 3P% ranks ninth in conference games, but it doesn’t take a lot of math awareness to know that 1-of-23 is incredibly bad.
In general, Kent State is a poor shooting team. Their 50.4% 2P% is also 11th in the 13-team conference, but they get a lot of their misses back and get to the free throw line at the highest rate of any MAC team, where they shoot nearly 76%. Despite those offensive shortcomings, we’re talking about Rob Senderoff’s team with a 12-3 record in conference play, third behind Akron and undefeated Miami OH. No other MAC team has more than nine conference wins heading into Friday.
To be honest, everything above makes this handicap a tricky one. Akron had an out-of-body defensive performance and a lackluster offensive effort, but Kent State held the Zips in check and just couldn’t throw the ball in the ocean from more than 22 feet away. Even though Akron has a higher shot share on Close Twos for the second, Kent State was 15-of-30 at the rim and the Zips were just 8-of-17 in that first game.
Both teams take a similar rate of 3-point shots, but Akron is decidedly better at shooting them, so that profiles to be a likely advantage. But, another thing about the first game that was a little bit off is that it was played to 68 possessions. The blowout factor helped, but these two teams are far above the national average in adjusted tempo and Torvik even has both in the top-30 nationally. We should expect a quicker pace here.
Akron is led by Tavari Johnson, a 91% free throw shooter averaging 20.6 PPG and 5.2 APG. He’s also shooting nearly 37% from 3 and nearly 52% from the floor as a whole. Secondary scoring comes from Amani Lyles (15.2 PPG), Shammah Scott (12.6 PPG), and Evan Mahaffey (10.1 PPG), as all of those guys rank up rebounds and/or assists. Scott is a 42.2% 3-point shooter and Mahaffey leads the team with 27 dunks. This is an extremely balanced and efficient offense.
Five Flashes average double figures, led by Delrecco Gillespie with 18.7 PPG. He’s also one of the nation’s top rebounders with 11.6 boards per contest. Morgan Safford has 14.1 PPG and is arguably the team’s best 3-point shooter, while Rob Whaley Jr., Cian Medley, and Jahari Williamson all range from 10 PPG to 11.6 PPG. Medley is one of the conference’s top point guards with 6.6 assists per contest.
Akron vs. Kent State Prediction
After that 69-52 game, we’ve got a total that is more than 40 points above that for this one. It’s certainly doable if the pace goes up and if Kent State shoots better from 3, but the Golden Flashes do challenge shots really well. This is a terrible defensive conference on the whole, but these are two of the better teams. It’s entirely possible we see a track meet where neither team can miss, but this total just feels too high with how locked in both teams will be for the rivalry game.
Pick: Under 164.5
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the college basketball games on our Pro Picks Page.
See our College Basketball Page for more previews and predictions.
