Alabama vs. Texas Tech Prediction
In the No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, Alabama vs. Texas Tech is the second-round game on Sunday, March 22 with a trip to Sweet 16 on the line.
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How to Watch Alabama vs. Texas Tech
When: TBD p.m. ET on Sunday, March 22nd
Where: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa Bay, Florida
Watch: TBD
Odds for Alabama vs. Texas Tech
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Texas Tech -2.5 (-110), Alabama +2.5 (-110)
Total: Over 167.5 (-110), Under 167.5 (-110)
Alabama vs. Texas Tech Prediction & Preview
The absence of Aden Holloway is one of the big talking points of the tournament. The guard averaged 16.8 points and 3.8 assists per game on efficient 48.1/43.8/86.4 shooting splits before getting kicked off campus, so he was a big part of the Crimson Tide’s third-best offense (129.6 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency) in the nation. However, even with Holloway out, Alabama still has a lot of firepower in the backcourt, with Labaron Philon Jr. being one of the best guards in the country. The Crimson Tide also have Latrell Wrightsell, who is capable of stepping up and doing a bit more. We saw all of that on display in Alabama’s 90-70 win over Hofstra in the opening round. Now, it’s a little hard to believe Nate Oats’ team is an underdog against Texas Tech.
Grant McCasland’s team deserves some flowers for a 20-point win over a good Akron team, as many thought the Red Raiders would be in trouble with JT Toppin out for the year with a torn ACL. However, the Texas Tech backcourt had other plans, with Jaylen Petty, Donovan Atwell, and Christian Anderson combining to score 57 points in the game. Now, the Red Raiders will look to out-gun the Crimson Tide, and clearly the oddsmakers like their chances. Personally, I’m a little skeptical.
Before stomping Akron, Texas Tech was a top-five offensive team (134.4) in the seven games the team played without Toppin. The Red Raiders leaned into playing to the strengths of their guard-heavy rotation, and they were scoring at an impressive clip — and clearly kept it up against the Zips. The issue is that this team was outside the top 100 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (104.8) in those games, and they’re now set to take on an electric Crimson Tide team.
I just don’t think Texas Tech is going to have much of an answer for Philon, who can get whatever shot he wants on any given possession. He should have a lot of success when he pushes the tempo, he’s an elite driver of the basketball, and he can also knock down shots. Also, with Toppin out for the Red Raiders, I’m not sure McCasland’s team is going to be able to contain Amari Allen and Aiden Sherrell. Alabama doesn’t normally have a clear edge when looking at wings and bigs, but the team should have exactly that against a Tech team that is missing one of the best players on the planet. I’d actually keep a close eye on Sherrell here, as he had 15 points and 15 rebounds against Hofstra. Sure, he’s capable of stepping out and knocking down 3s, as Oats probably wouldn’t look his direction if he wasn’t. However, he can do the dirty work, and he should be able to take advantage of a depleted Red Raiders frontline.
Texas Tech is also just 4-11 against the spread as a neutral-court favorite under McCasland. He has been a little more comfortable coaching in the underdog role throughout his career.
If you’re not in on Alabama, the Over is also worth a look. Sure, the number is pretty damn high for a 40-minute game, but Alabama had the highest 3PR in the country (53.7%) heading into March Madness. Meanwhile, Texas Tech was 13th in 3PR (51.2%) without Toppin before the tournament. If both of these teams are going to jack up 3s, you won’t want to be sitting there hoping for misses. Also, the Red Raiders might want to slow the tempo down, but the Tide aren’t going to allow that.
Estimated Score: TBD
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