Arizona vs. LIU Prediction
In the No. 1 vs. No. 16 matchup in the NCAA Tournament West Region, Arizona vs. LIU is the first-round game at 1:35 p.m. ET on Friday, March 20 with a trip to second round on the line.
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How to Watch Arizona vs. LIU
When: 1:35 p.m. ET on Friday, March 20th
Where: Viejas Arena in San Diego, CA
Watch: TNT
Odds for Arizona vs. LIU
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Arizona -30.5 (-110), LIU +30.5 (-110)
Total: Over 151.5 (-110), Under 151.5 (-110)
Arizona vs. LIU Prediction & Preview
Tommy Lloyd is back in the interrogation room, and the lights keep getting brighter. Five NCAA Tournaments, four exits before the Final Four — three in the Sweet 16 and one in the first round — and now a No. 1 seed for the second time, having squandered the first one in his debut season. Sean Miller never made it past the Elite Eight despite some genuinely talented Wildcats teams, and whatever NCAA Tournament ailment lived in that office appears to have been left behind in the furniture. Lloyd has a top-10 team per Bart Torvik, a 23-0 start that included wins over Florida, UCLA, UConn, Alabama, and San Diego State, and a Big 12 schedule that provided quality opposition at nearly every turn. The résumé is unimpeachable. The elephant in the room just keeps getting bigger.
The philosophical question surrounding Arizona is a real one. The Wildcats had one of the five lowest 3-point rates in the nation, built around getting the ball inside to 7-foot-2 Motiejus Krivas and 6-foot-8 freshman Koa Peat. That’s not an unreasonable approach when you have that kind of interior talent, but the game has evolved toward perimeter shooting at the highest levels, and the Big 12 ranked 24th in 3-point rate during the regular season per Torvik. What happens when Arizona faces a SEC or Big Ten team in the second weekend that lives behind the arc? The defense is elite — the best Lloyd has taken into the tournament — and the offensive rebounding is exceptional, which compensates for some of the margin that 3-point shooting teams generate with volume. But the worry is legitimate, and it’s the kind of thing that doesn’t fully reveal itself until the competition upgrades in the second week.
Long Island is here under unique circumstances that deserve a proper explanation. Mercyhurst secured a spot in the NEC Tournament Championship Game against LIU, and because the Lakers are still transitioning to Division I, conference rules stipulated that their opponent would receive the automatic NCAA Tournament berth regardless of the outcome. So the Sharks, last in the tournament as the LIU-Brooklyn Blackbirds back in 2018, had their ticket punched before the game even tipped off. To be clear, LIU was the regular season and conference tournament champion and the highest-rated team in the NEC throughout — they earned the right to be in that game — but the path to Dayton had a procedural assist attached to it.
The profile reflects the level of competition. Twenty-two of LIU’s 23 wins came against Quadrant 4 opponents, with the lone Quadrant 3 win coming on the road at Missouri State in non-conference play. The Sharks scored over a point per possession in nine of their 13 non-conference games, but three of the four where they didn’t came against Notre Dame, Illinois, and Georgia — all power-conference programs. The free throw shooting at 67% and a turnover rate in the 320s nationally are real concerns against any team that applies defensive pressure, and Arizona’s defense is as good as it gets. Where LIU has been genuinely solid is on the offensive glass and from the perimeter, finishing in the top 60 in 3-point percentage on both offense and defense, which is a meaningful data point for a program that ranked 363rd, 349th, and 350th in adjusted offensive efficiency the prior three seasons. The leap forward under Strickland is real and worth acknowledging even if the competition gap is enormous.
This one won’t be close. Arizona’s interior dominance, elite defense, and overall talent advantage is simply too much for a team that has never faced anything remotely like it. Lloyd advances comfortably, and the real Arizona story begins in the second round.
Estimated Score: TBD
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