Arizona vs. Utah State Prediction
In the No. 1 vs. No. 9 matchup in the NCAA Tournament West Region, Arizona vs. Utah State is the second-round game on Sunday, March 22 with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.
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How to Watch Arizona vs. Utah State
When: TBD on Sunday, March 22
Where: Viejas Arena in San Diego, California
Watch: TBD
Odds for Arizona vs. Utah State
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Arizona -12.5 (-110), Utah State +12.5 (-110)
Total: Over 155.5 (-110), Under 155.5 (-110)
Arizona vs. Utah State Prediction & Preview
This year’s Arizona team feels different. The Wildcats have been absolutely dominant all year, ranking eighth in Bart Torvik’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (127.1) and first in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (91.5). Tommy Lloyd’s squad has a tremendous backcourt, a star-studded frontcourt, and some role players that know how to impact games. That’s why this team was able to navigate the Big 12 season with very few problems, standing out as the top squad in an elite conference. Arizona also has one of the most impressive resumes of any team in the nation, with wins over Florida, UCLA, UConn, Alabama, Houston (twice), Kansas, and Iowa State (twice). The Wildcats also did what a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament is supposed to do in the opening round, bludgeoning Long Island in a 92-58 win. Well, Arizona might have said “Fins Down” in the first round, but we’re going to learn a lot about the Wildcats in Round 2. Utah State can play.
Unlike Arizona, Utah State had to fight for an opening-round win, as the team faced a good Villanova squad. The Aggies actually trailed by as many as 10 in the contest, but they ultimately found their way through. Now, Utah State is going to look to shoot Arizona off the floor.
If there’s any weaknesses for this Wildcats team, it’s their old-school approach on offense and inconsistency defending the 3-point line. While Arizona shoots 36.3% from deep, the team was 363rd in college basketball in 3-Point Rate (26.7%) heading into the tournament. The Wildcats prefer to bully teams down low, utilizing the strength of Koa Peat and low-post ability of Motiejus Krivas to set the tone in games. Also, Arizona has guards and wings that can really get downhill. Well, Utah State is a very good team when it comes to 2PT% Defense (48.7% – 55th in NCAA). That said, the Aggies might be able to do a decent job of preventing those guys from feasting around the basket. I’ll also note that Utah State creates a ton of turnovers, ranking 16th in the nation in Turnover Rate Defense (20.6%). Arizona’s guards can occasionally be loose with the basketball, so perhaps the Aggies can throw them off and make things a little extra sloppy.
There’s a path for Utah State to dig in and do a decent job defensively in this game, and that should mean that the result will come down to the 3-ball. The Aggies shoot 35.1% from deep, which is just outside the nation’s top 100. They also have a much higher 3PR than the Wildcats, launching triples on 40.7% of their possessions. Well, if Utah State is knocking down 3s, that’s going to make things very interesting. Arizona might be the more talented group, but math is math. The 3 is worth more than the 2, so the Aggies have a chance if they’re launching — hitting — at a high clip.
Utah State also has some fearless gunners in the backcourt, with MJ Collins Jr. and Mason Falslev being an awesome guard duo. I know this team doesn’t have anyone with NBA hopes like Peat, Krivas, or Brayden Burries, but Utah State has some fantastic college players. The Aggies also have an X’s-and-O’s genius at head coach, with Jerrod Calhoun being one of the hottest names on the coaching market. He’s going to have his guys ready to go — much like he did against Kevin Willard and Villanova.
There’s also the elephant in the room with Arizona. For as good as this program has been under Lloyd, the tournament success hasn’t been there. The Wildcats also have a losing against-the-spread record under Lloyd in March Madness.
All in all, there will be a lot of pressure on Arizona, while Utah State will have the luxury of playing freely. That makes it pretty tempting to grab the points — and even put a little sprinkle on the moneyline.
Estimated Score: Coming soon.
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