Arkansas vs. Alabama
There are advantages to going to live sporting events for the atmosphere, the entertainment, and the environment, but there are also advantages to watching a game at home on the couch with no line for the bathroom or no line for your next beer. In the case of Arkansas vs. Alabama, being there in person could cause you to miss a lot if the lines are long because these are two teams that play at a very fast tempo and this is one of the highest Over/Under betting totals you are going to see for a college basketball game.
Alabama is No. 2 in the nation in adjusted tempo per Bart Torvik and Arkansas is 28th, while KenPom has these teams ranked No. 1 and No. 25 in that department based on his metrics. In other words, don’t blink, don’t dilly-dally to the fridge, and don’t expect to see a lot of empty possessions in this Razorbacks vs. Crimson Tide SEC showdown.
This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 17, 6:30 pm PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Arkansas vs. Alabama (-3.5, 181.5)
7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
That is not a typo on the total, as this one is shaping up to be the 14th college basketball game of the season with a total of 180 or higher. So far, those games are 10-3 to the Under, so we’ll see if this one is able to stay beneath this lofty expectation. Alabama has been part of four games with totals of 180+ so far this season and the Over is 2-2 in those games.
As things currently stand, The Bracket Matrix has both of these teams as a No. 5 seed based on a sample size of 113 brackets, so you can start thinking about Arkansas and Alabama in that dreaded 12 vs. 5 or 13 vs. 4 matchup against a really feisty mid-major. Alabama is 5-6 in Quadrant 1 games as defined by Torvik thus far and 3-5 in Quadrant 1-A games, which this is not because they are the home team. It is a Q1-A game for Arkansas by virtue of being on the road and they are 3-5 in those and 6-6 overall in Q1 contests.
These two teams have not played head-to-head this season, so we’ll have to see how it goes, but Arkansas has been playing at an extremely high level on offense of late. They were held in check by Georgia with just .915 points per possession on Jan. 17, but they’ve scored at least 1.15 PPP in 10 of their 12 conference matchups. They’ve also allowed 1.15 PPP or more just four times, so this has been a very solid team, save for a few bad outings.
Alabama has continued to pour in the points as well, as they’ve also played 12 conference games with at least 1.15 PPP in eight of them, including each of the last four. However, because the Crimson Tide have one of the lowest TO% on defense in the nation, both overall and in conference play, they’ve been forced to keep up an incredibly high offensive standard to win games. As a result, they are just 8-4 in SEC games and have given up 96, 92, 79, and 100 points in their four losses.
From a conference-only standpoint, Arkansas is the better team in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, plus the Razorbacks are tops in the SEC in eFG% offense and 2P%. Alabama is actually second in eFG% defense, but the massive lack of turnovers has mitigated some of the value from doing a good job of defending shots. Arkansas has the second-lowest TO% in the conference at just 12.2%, so expect Alabama to struggle like usual at generating takeaways.
With the tempo and style of play expected in this game, we could see some big performances on the stat sheet. It seems like Darius Acuff Jr. has them regardless of environment, as the Arkansas freshman has 21.2 PPG and also 6.3 APG. Meleek Thomas (15 PPG) and Trevon Brazile (12.8 PPG) are the others in double figures, with all three shooting at least 36.7% from deep. The Razorbacks really do need to find some secondary scoring help, though.
Alabama has six players averaging double figures including highly-controversial forward Charles Bediako, who had 10 PPG while shooting 77.3% from the floor before the NCAA reversed their decision to allow him to play. The Crimson Tide beat Ole Miss by 19 and South Carolina by 14 without him, but this is a big step up in class. That simply means that Labaron Philon Jr. (21.3 PPG) and Aden Holloway (17 PPG) just have to keep shouldering the load like they have.
Arkansas vs. Alabama Prediction
The tough thing about comparing stats for a lot of SEC teams is that they’ve feasted on the inferior teams in this conference. Alabama’s best defensive efforts have easily been against teams like Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and South Carolina, while Arkansas has had a couple of stronger performances against better teams, including Vanderbilt and Auburn. This game does have big toss-up potential, but while the Razorbacks’ stat sheet looks a bit cleaner, Torvik has them for the 16th-ranked conference schedule so far and they’ve only shot 30.8% from 3 in road SEC games. Alabama is also the better free throw shooting team where a home whistle may come into play.
Pick: Alabama -3.5
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