Betting Splits and CBB Sharp Money Picks for Friday December 1

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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

 

You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages using our VSiN Betting Splits.

In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s College Basketball slate.

 

7 p.m. ET: Saint Peter’s at Niagara (-1.5, 123.5) 

Saint Peter’s (1-4) has dropped three straight and just got rolled by Rutgers 71-40, failing to cover as 15.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, Niagara (1-3) just beat St. Francis 69-61, covering as 5.5-point road favorites. This line opened at roughly a pick’em. Sharps have sided with the home team, steaming Niagara up to -1.5. This movement is notable because this game is very low bet and the public has no interest in it, yet we’ve seen a line move. This indicates pros have taken an interest in Niagara despite the public not participating. Niagara is receiving 64% of moneyline bets but 79% of moneyline dollars, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet split on a short spread game. Niagara is -120 on the moneyline Ken Pom has Niagara winning by one point (62-61). Niagara has the better offense (67 PPG vs 61 PPG) and better shooting (48% vs 36%). Niagara went 9-4 at home last season. Saint Peter’s went 4-11 on the road. 

 

7 p.m. ET: Quinnipiac at Canisius (-3.5, 151.5) 

Quinnipiac (5-1) has won three straight and just took down Stonehill 80-69, covering as 10-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Canisius (4-3) just saw their three-game winning streak come to an end, falling to Bowling Green 77-73 and failing to cover as 1.5-point neutral site dogs. This line opened with Canisius listed as a 3-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is a 4-3 team favored over a 5-1 team? Shouldn’t it be the other way around. Currently 55% of bets are taking Quinnipiac plus the points. However, we’ve actually seen this line move further to Canisius -3 to -3.5. Some shops are even flirting with a move to -4. Essentially, all liability and movement is in favor of the home team in a classic "fade the trendy dog" spot. Ken Pom has Canisius winning by seven points (79-72). He also has Canisius ranked much higher (215th vs 266th). Canisius is -170 on the moneyline. Canisius beat Quinnipiac 85-65 in their lone home matchup last season. 

 

9 p.m. ET: Connecticut at Kansas (-3, 148.5) 

Connecticut (7-0) is ranked 4th and just crushed New Hampshire 84-64 but failed to cover as 31.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Kansas (6-1) is ranked 5th and just took down Eastern Illinois 71-63 but failed to cover as 38.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Kansas listed as a 2-point home favorite. The public sees two powerhouse teams and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite a 50/50 bet split, we’ve seen Kansas move from -2 to -3. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are split. So we know this sharp move was caused by wiseguys backing Kansas at home. Kansas is receiving 50% of bets but 65% of money, further evidence of pro money on the Jayhawks. Ken Pom has Kansas winning by one point (75-74). Those looking to follow the sharp move but wary of laying the points could instead target Kansas on the moneyline at -150. When two top-10 teams face off, the home favorite is 125-59 (68%) straight up since 2005. Kansas is 3-0 at home this season while Connecticut is playing their first true road game. The Jayhawks have the better shooting (54% vs 51%) and passing (24 assists per game vs 19).