Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Friday’s College Basketball slate.
7 p.m. ET: Marist at Niagara (-2.5, 133)
Marist (9-7) has won two of their last three games and just edged Siena 50-48. Meanwhile, Niagara (9-9) has won six of their last seven games and just took down Mount St. Mary’s 82-71. This line opened with Niagara listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Sharps have laid the short chalk with the home team, steaming Niagara up from -1.5 to -2.5. This would also classify as a “sharp obscure line move,” as it is one of the lowest bet and smallest games of the day, yet sharps have targeted Niagara and moved the line in their favor. Niagara has several distinct advantages on offense, averaging 76.4 PPG compared to 64.2 for Marist. Niagara also has the better field goal percentage (48.1% vs 44.2%), better three-point shooting (40.7% vs 32.8%) and better free-throw shooting (76.9% vs 63.7%). Ken Pom has Niagara winning by two points (70-68). Those looking to protect themselves from a short win that doesn’t cover the number could instead target Niagara on the moneyline at -140. Niagara is receiving 78% of moneyline bets but 89% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pros backing Niagara to win the game.
10 p.m. ET: Stanford at California (-2.5, 150)
Stanford (10-8) has won three of their last four games and just beat Washington 80-70. Similarly, California (7-12) has won three of their last five games and just upset Washington State 81-75 in overtime. This line opened with California listed as a 2-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is a 7-12 team favored over a 10-8 team? Shouldn’t it be the other way around? If it doesn’t make sense there is usually a reason for it. Pros have embraced the fishy home favorite, driving California up from -2 to -2.5. Some shops are even hinting at a move to -3. California is receiving 59% of spread bets but 88% of spread dollars, further evidence of big smart money in their favor. California will lean on their advantage on the boards, boasting an offensive rebounds percentage of 30.8 compared to 22.5 for Stanford. Ken Pom has California winning by one point (78-77). Sharps looks to be eyeing California on the moneyline at -140. California is receiving 56% of moneyline bets but 79% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. Pac 12 home favorites are 26-10 (72.2%) straight up in conference play.
