Today we have another loaded slate of 35-College Basketball conference tournament games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of high-stakes, under-the-radar games today.
6 p.m. ET: Howard vs Norfolk State (-3.5, 136.5)
This is the Semifinal of the MEAC tournament. The game will be played at Norfolk Scope Arena in Norfolk, Virginia. Howard (16-16) is the 4-seed and just dismissed Morgan State 78-65 in yesterday’s quarterfinal matchup. Meanwhile, Norfolk State (22-10) is the 1-seed and just crushed Coppin State 75-51 in Wednesday’s quarterfinals. This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops opening Norfolk State as a short 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have pounced on Norfolk State at a cheap price, steaming the Spartans up to a 3.5-point favorite. In other words, all movement and liability is pointing toward Norfolk State. This line move is especially notable because this is an added/extra game (306505-306506), which means the public has no interest in this tiny matchup and can’t even find this game on their app. As a result, based upon the line movement, we know that pros have specifically targeted Norfolk State. The Spartans are receiving 80% of spread bets and 86% of spread dollars, further evidence of one-sided sharp action in Norfolk State’s favor. Norfolk State has the better defensive efficiency (212th vs 331st) and ranks 9th in the country as turning their opponent over. Ken Pom has Norfolk State winning by three points (74-71). He also has Norfolk State ranked higher (225th vs 281st). Those looking to protect themselves from a one-possession win that may not cover the spread could instead play Norfolk State on the moneyline at -170. Norfolk State is receiving 58% of moneyline bets but 97% of moneyline dollars, signaling wiseguy action banking on the Spartans to win straight up. Norfolk State has a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Wednesday while Howard played yesterday. This is also a de-facto home game for Norfolk State, whose campus is just 10-minutes away while Howard is about a 4-hour drive from Washington, DC. Norfolk State went 2-0 against Howard during the regular season, winning 65-61 on the road and winning 77-58 at home.
11:30 p.m. ET: Texas Arlington vs Tarleton State (-1, 146)
This is the Semifinal of the WAC tournament. It will be played at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Texas Arlington (19-13) is the 3-seed and just crushed Stephen Austin 109-78 in yesterday’s quarterfinal. On the other hand, Tarleton State (23-8) is the 2-seed and playing their first game of the tournament after coming off a bye. This line opened with Texas Arlington listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have pounced on Tarleton State, flipping the Texans from a 1.5-point dog to a 1.5-point favorite. In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of Tarleton State. This move is even more meaningful because the betting public is split down the middle with 50% of spread bets on both sides. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even. So we know this “dog to fav” flip was caused by the larger share of respected wagers siding with Tarleton State. The Texans are better at the free-throw stripe (76% vs 74%) and also take better care of the ball (178th in turnovers vs 348th). Tarleton State went 2-0 against Texas Arlington during the regular season, winning 78-76 at home and winning 80-78 on the road. Pros seem to prefer Tarleton State on the moneyline (-115), as the Texans are receiving only 41% of moneyline bets but 65% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
11:30 p.m. ET: Hawaii vs UC Davis (-2, 134.5)
This is the Semifinal of the Big West tournament. It will be played at Dollar Loan Center in Henderson, Nevada. Hawaii (20-13) is the 3-seed and just took down Cal State Northridge 75-68 in yesterday’s quarterfinal matchup. Conversely, UC Davis (19-12) is the 2-seed and will be playing their first game of the tournament after coming off a bye. This line opened with Hawaii listed as a short 1-point neutral site favorite. Pros have gotten down hard on UC Davis, flipping the Aggies from a 1-point dog to a 2-point favorite. This means UC Davis is seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in their favor. The Aggies are only receiving 54% of spread bets but 85% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy bet split signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action. UC Davis has the better defensive efficiency (112th vs 150th) and are also better at the free throw line (74% vs 72%), which could prove critical in a close game. Those looking to protect themselves from a tight win that may not cover the spread could instead play UC Davis on the moneyline at -135. UC Davis is receiving 60% of moneyline bets but 70% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pros banking on UC Davis to win straight up.
