Tennis Best Bets: Picks and predictions for Indian Wells Women’s Semifinals

Zachary Cohen runs through his tennis best bets for the Indian Wells action on Friday, March 15th.

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Iga Swiatek returns to Caroline Wozniacki during their quarterfinal match of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, Calif., on Thurs., March 14, 2024. Swiatek won after Wozniacki retired the match.

Indian Wells best bets for Friday, March 15th

It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. For the next couple of days, the ATP and WTA Tours will be at Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California. This venue is known as “Tennis Paradise” and many consider this 1000-level event to be the fifth slam. That said, all of the top players were in the field for this event, and you won’t want to miss the rest of this tournament. With that in mind, keep reading for my best bets for Friday, March 15th. Also, I’d strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I’ll occasionally add picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!

 

2023 Record: 275-249 (+47.53 units)
2024 Record: 148-172 (-2.00 units)

Marta Kostyuk vs. Iga Swiatek

Kostyuk hasn’t dropped a set at Indian Wells, and her road hasn’t been all that easy. The Ukrainian earned wins over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Anastasia Potapova in her last two matches. Both players were playing well before running into Kostyuk. But Kostyuk has quietly put together one heck of a season. She’s 15-5 through 20 matches this year and made a run to the quarterfinals of the Australian Open in January. This is a player that has always had jaw-dropping talent, but she’s finally starting to figure out how to win. Now, Kostyuk will try and stay competitive against the top player in the women’s game. And I like her chances of doing so.

Kostyuk plays quick-strike tennis along the baseline. She doesn’t care much for point construction. She just wants to rip the ball and try to hit winners. That should serve her well against Swiatek. Of course, the Pole is one of the better movers in the women’s game. But Kostyuk won’t be intimidated playing Swiatek. That’s half the battle against her. Swiatek can also get a little loose with her service games. And if she’s just dumping second serves into the box, Kostyuk will obliterate some returns. If she breaks a few times in this match, it’s hard to see her not winning seven games.

Kostyuk also won seven games when these two met at the French Open two years ago. That was on Swiatek’s preferred surface of red clay. If she can do it there, she can definitely do it in Indian Wells.

Bet: Kostyuk Over 6.5 Games Won (-115 – 2 units)

Maria Sakkari vs. Coco Gauff

Sakkari is coming off a big 5-7, 6-2, 6-4 win over a red-hot Emma Navarro. Sakkari has looked like her former self lately, and she was one of the top players in the women’s game before having a bit of a down 2023 season. But the Greek star has a new coach and renewed confidence. Now, she should be a dangerous opponent for Gauff.

Gauff beat Yue Yuan in straight sets last round, but she had a lot of trouble holding serve. And the reality of a match like this is that both players are going to come up with a bunch of breaks. With that being the case, I just don’t see why Sakkari wouldn’t win a set. This is going to come down to grinding from the baseline, and Sakkari has the ability to do that with the best of them. Sakkari’s new coach, David Witt, also happens to know Gauff very well from his time coaching Jessica Pegula. With that in mind, he knows the importance of attacking Gauff’s leaky forehand. So, look for Sakkari to do everything she can to try and extract errors from that side. She’ll hit deep, spin-heavy shots to that side of the court.

Sakkari also knows she has what it takes to beat Gauff. While the American has won their last two matches, Sakkari is 4-3 in their seven head-to-head meetings. That said, I’m taking Sakkari to win a set and also sprinkling the moneyline.

Bet: Sakkari +1.5 Sets (-125 – 1.5 units) & Sakkari ML (+230 – 0.5 units)

Thursday’s Plays

PARLAY: Alcaraz/Sinner ML (-161 – 2 units)

Marta Kostyuk ML (-138 – 2 units) vs. Anastasia Potapova

Maria Sakkari ML (+100 – 1.5 units) vs. Emma Navarro

VSiN Tennis Betting Splits

Tennis Odds

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