It’s officially March! Which means the Madness isn’t far off. To celebrate the turning of the calendar we have a 26-game College Basketball slate to get down on today. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a quartet of under-the-radar matchups tonight.
7 p.m. ET: Harvard at Brown (-2.5, 141.5)
Harvard (14-10) has rotated wins and losses over their last nine games and just took down Pennsylvania 74-70. Meanwhile, Brown (9-17) has won three straight games and just upset Cornell 78-74. This line opened with Brown listed as a 2-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is a 9-17 team favored over a 14-10 team? If it looks too good to be true, or doesn’t make sense, there is usually a reason for it. Pros have embraced the fishy home favorite, driving Brown up from -2 to -2.5. Brown is only receiving 54% of spread bets but 69% of spread dollars, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action in their favor. Brown has a big edge in terms of offensive rebound percentage (32% vs 26%). Ken Pom has Brown winning by two points (71-69), which means savvy bettors may prefer to play Brown on the moneyline (-140). Ivy League home favorites are 20-7 straight up (74%) in conference play this season. Brown beat Harvard on the road 74-72 in mid-January.
7 p.m. ET: Mount St. Mary’s at Canisius (-2, 142)
Mount St. Mary’s (12-16) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 72-65 win over Iona. Conversely, Canisius (11-15) has won three of their last four games and just took down Niagara 69-59. This line opened with Canisius listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Pros seem to think this opening line was a bit short and have gotten down on Canisius, driving the home team up from -1.5 to -2. Canisius is only receiving 54% of spread bets but 64% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” smart money discrepancy in their favor. Ken Pom has Canisius winning by two points (73-71), which makes a moneyline play (-130) a bit more enticing than laying the points. Canisius is 7-3 at home. Meanwhile, Mount St. Mary’s is just 4-12 on the road. Canisius enjoys a rest advantage, having last played on February 23rd while Mount St. Mary’s last played on February 25th. MAAC home favorites are 39-24 straight up (62%) in conference play this season. This is also a revenge spot for Canisius, who lost to Mount St. Mary’s on the road 74-69 in early January.
7 p.m. ET: Stetson at North Florida (-2, 149.5)
Stetson (19-11) has won six of their last seven games and just brushed aside Jacksonville 86-73. On the other hand, North Florida (15-15) has dropped two straight and just got rolled by Florida Gulf Coast 79-60. This line opened at a pick’em. Pros have sided with the home team, steaming North Florida up from a pick’em to -2. This move is especially notable because it’s an added/extra game (306555-306556). These are the unpopular games that the public has no interest in and can’t even find on their app. However, if you see a line move in these tiny matchups it’s almost exclusively driven my sharp action taking a position. North Florida is receiving 52% of spread bets but 64% of spread dollars, indicating the bigger, sharper wagers in their favor. Ken Pom has North Florida winning by one point (77-67), which provides the option of taking the moneyline instead (-130). North Florida has buy-low, sell-high value as they have lost two straight and just got blown out while Stetson has won six of their last seven. This is a revenge spot for North Florida, who lost to Stetson on the road 75-74 in early January. This is also Senior Night for North Florida and their last regular season game.
8 p.m. ET: Eastern Kentucky at Lipscomb (-3, 160)
Eastern Kentucky (17-12) just saw their four-game winning streak come to an end, falling to Austin Peay 83-79. Meanwhile, Lipscomb (19-11) has won six of their last seven games and just crushed Bellarmine 90-74. This line opened with Lipscomb listed as a 2-point home favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on the home team, steaming Lipscomb up from -2 to -3. This would qualify as an “obscure sharp line move” as this is an added/extra game (306561-30652) that the public wants nothing to do with but pros have specifically targeted. Lipscomb is receiving 71% of spread bets but 88% of spread dollars, further evidence of a preponderance of sharp action in their favor. Lipscomb has the far better offensive efficiency (68th vs 135th), better effective field goal percentage (57% vs 51%) and better free-throw shooting (78% vs 69%). Ken Pom has Lipscomb winning by five points (85-80). He also has Lipscomb ranked much higher (165th vs 187th). For those looking to protect themselves in what might be a close game, Lipscomb is -160 on the moneyline. Lipscomb is 11-1 at home. Eastern Kentucky is 4-9 on the road. This is a revenge spot for Lipscomb, who lost to Eastern Kentucky on the road 80-72 in early January. This is also Senior Night for Lipscomb and their final regular season game.
