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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Monday’s 16-game College Basketball slate.

6:30 p.m. ET: Alabama State at Southern (-4.5, 137)

Alabama State (11-12) has dropped three of their last four game and just fell to Grambling State 74-68. Meanwhile, Southern (14-9) has won five straight games and just edged Alabama A&M 69-62. This line opened with Southern listed as a 4-point home favorite. We’ve seen Southern get steamed up from -4 to -4.5. This line move is especially notable because of the fact this is an added/extra game (306649-306650). These are the tiny, obscure matchups that the public has no interest in or can’t even find on their app (you have to click an extra tab to find them). As a result, if you see a line move in an added/extra game it’s almost purely due to sharps who have targeted the game. Southern is receiving 82% of spread bets and 86% of spread dollars, further evidence of wiseguys backing the home team. Southern has the better offensive efficiency (308th vs 348th), better defensive efficiency (110th vs 125th) and better effective field goal percentage (49% vs 41%). Ken Pom has Southern winning by seven points (68-61). He also has Southern ranked much higher (220th vs 291st). Southern is a perfect 9-0 at home. Alabama State is just 3-9 on the road. Southern is -190 on the moneyline. Currently 90% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars are taking Southern to win the game straight up.

9 p.m. ET: Kansas at Texas Tech (-3.5, 144)

Kansas (19-5, ranked 4th) has won three of their last four games and just edged Baylor 64-61. On the flip side, Texas Tech (17-6, ranked 23rd) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 66-59 win over Central Florida. This line opened with Texas Tech listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. If Kansas is the better team with the superior record and ranking, then why are the Jayhawks an underdog? If it looks too good or to be true, or doesn’t make sense, there is usually a record for it. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window to grab the points with Kansas. However, despite 69% of spread bets taking Kansas we’ve actually seen this line move further to Texas Tech -1.5 to -3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Texas Tech, with pros fading the trendy dog Jayhawks and instead laying the points with the unpopular favorite Red Raiders. Texas Tech is the top contrarian play of the day, receiving only 31% of spread bets in the most heavily bet game of the night. Texas Tech has the better offensive efficiency (13th vs 32nd), better offensive rebounding percentage (31% vs 26%) and better free throw shooting (78% vs 74%). Those looking to follow the sharp move but wary of laying the points could instead target Texas Tech on the moneyline at -165. Texas Tech is 12-1 at home this season. Kansas is 2-4 on the road. When two ranked teams play each other, the home favorite is 24-5 (83%) straight up this season and 120-29 (81%) straight up since 2021.

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