Today a new week begins with a quality, not quantity, 22-game College Basketball slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for trio of games tonight.
7:30 p.m. ET: Nicholls State (-1.5, 142.5) at Northwestern State
Nicholls State (16-13) just saw their three-game win streak come to an end, falling to McNeese State 83-62. On the other hand, Northwestern State (9-20) has lost two of their last three games and just fell to Lamar in overtime 82-77. This line opened at a pick’em. Sharps have sided with Nicholls State, steaming the road team up from a pick’em to a 1.5-point favorite. This movement is especially notable because this is one of the smallest, least popular games of the night. As a result, when you see a line move on a tiny matchup like this it is almost almost driven by smart money taking a position. Nicholls State is receiving roughly 70% of spread bets and dollars, further evidence of a preponderance of smart money in their favor in a low bet game. Nicholls State has the better offensive efficiency (246th vs 307th) and better defensive efficiency (266th vs 308th). Nicholls State also boasts the better three-point percentage (37% vs 32%) and better free-throw percentage (73% vs 67%). Ken Pom has Nicholls State winning by one point (72-71). He also has Nicholls State ranked much higher (273rd vs 321st). Those looking to protect themselves from a one-point victory could instead play Nicholls State on the moneyline at -120. Nicholls State is 11-5 in conference play. Northwestern State is 7-9. Nicholls State beat Northwestern State 73-66 at home in early February.
8:30 p.m. ET: Jackson State (-2.5, 144) at Prairie View
Jackson State (12-16) has dropped two straight games and just fell to Texas Southern 80-70. Similarly, Prairie View (10-19) has lost five straight games and just came up short against Alcorn State 73-65. This line opened with Jackson State listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. Sharps have grabbed the points with the home dog, dropping the line from Prairie View +3.5 to +2.5. This movement is especially notable due to the fact this an added/extra game (306653-306654), which means the public can’t even find this tiny game on their app yet pros have specifically targeted the matchup and sided with the home dog. Prairie View is only receiving 35% of spread bets but 66% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. Prairie View ranks 9th in the country in terms of forcing turnovers and 22nd in the country in terms of steals. Ken Pom has Jackson State winning by just one point (74-73), which provides actionable value on Prairie View at the current price. Prairie View is 5-5 at home. Meanwhile, Jackson State is just 6-13 on the road. Prairie View beat Jackson State on the road 71-62 in late January.
9 p.m. ET: Weber State (-3.5, 144) at Montana State
Weber State (20-10) has won eight of their last nine games and just crushed Northern Arizona 85-58. Conversely, Montana State (13-17) has lost six of their last eight games and just fell to Eastern Washington 108-104 in overtime. This line opened with Weber State listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Pros seem to think this opener was too short and have gotten down hard on Weber State, steaming the road favorite up from -2.5 to -3.5. Some books are even inching toward -4. Weber State is receiving 65% of spread bets but 90% of spread dollars, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action in their favor. Weber State has a big edge in terms of offensive efficiency (128th vs 266th) and taking care of the ball (40th in turnovers vs 175th for Montana State). Ken Pom has Weber State winning by three points (73-70). He also has Weber State ranked much higher (138th vs 249th). Those looking to protect themselves in what could a one or two possession game could instead play Weber State on the moneyline at -175. Weber State is 11-6 in conference play. Montana State is 8-9. Weber State crushed Montana State 86-64 at home in late December.
