HomeCollege BasketballBetting Splits and CBB Sharp Money Picks for Monday March 11th

    Betting Splits and CBB Sharp Money Picks for Monday March 11th

    Josh Appelbaum examines where smart money is leaning for St. Thomas-South Dakota State, Milwaukee-Northern Kentucky and Denver-Omaha.

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    Today a new week begins with a loaded slate of 14 Conference Tournament College Basketball games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.

    In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.

     

    7 p.m. ET: St. Thomas vs South Dakota State (-3, 140)

    This is the Semifinal of the Summit League conference tournament. St. Thomas (20-12) is the 4-seed and just took down North Dakota State 68-58 in the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, South Dakota State (20-12) is the 1-seed and just brushed aside Oral Roberts 79-63 in the quarterfinals. This line opened with South Dakota State listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps seem to think this opener was a bit short and have gotten down hard on South Dakota State, steaming the Jackrabbits up from -1.5 to -3. South Dakota State is receiving roughly 65% of spread bets and spread dollars, signaling a lopsided combination of both public and sharp support. South Dakota State has the better offensive efficiency (112th vs 134th) as well as the better field goal percentage (49% vs 48%) and better rebounding (36 RPG vs 31 RPG). South Dakota State also enjoys “home court” advantage. Although this is a neutral site game, it will be played at the Denny Sanford Premier Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, just about an hour drive from the South Dakota State campus. Meanwhile, St. Thomas hails from St. Paul, Minnesota, about a 4-hour drive away. South Dakota State is 2-0 against St. Thomas this season, winning 81-80 on the road in early January and winning again 77-72 at home in late February. Those looking to protect themselves in what may end up being a close game could instead play South Dakota State on the moneyline at -150. South Dakota State is receiving 68% of moneyline bets but 87% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split signaling pro money backing the Jackrabbits to win straight up.

    9:30 p.m. ET: Milwaukee vs Northern Kentucky (-1.5, 152)

    This is the Semifinal of the Horizon League conference tournament. Milwaukee (19-14) is the 6-seed and just dismissed Green Bay 95-84 in the quarterfinals. On the flip side, Northern Kentucky (18-14) is the 5-seed and just outlasted Wright State 99-97 in overtime in the quarterfinals. This line opened with Northern Kentucky listed as a short 1.5-point neutral site favorite. This line briefly bottomed out at Northern Kentucky -1 overnight before rising back to -1.5. Now, most shops are juicing up Northern Kentucky -1.5 to -115, signaling a possible rise up to -2. Reading between the lines, it appears as though respected game-day money is leaning toward Northern Kentucky. Currently 55% of spread bets and 60% of spread dollars are backing Northern Kentucky, further evidence of respected action siding with the short favorite. Northern Kentucky has the better defensive efficiency (158th vs 316th) and ranks 35th in the country at forcing turnovers while Milwaukee ranks 263rd. Ken Pom has Northern Kentucky winning by two points (77-75). He also has Northern Kentucky ranked higher (181st vs 228th). Pros seems to be specifically targeting Northern Kentucky on the moneyline (-125), as the Norse are receiving only 69% of moneyline bets but 89% of moneyline dollars. These teams split their two head-to-head matchups during the regular season, with Northern Kentucky winning 90-72 at home in late January and then Milwaukee winning 73-72 at home in late February.

    9:30 p.m. ET: Denver vs Omaha (-1.5, 154)

    The is the Semifinal of the Summit League conference tournament. Denver (16-16) is the 7-seed and just took down Kansas City 61-60 in the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, Omaha (15-17) is the 6-seed and just edged North Dakota 73-72 in the quarterfinals. This game opened with Omaha listed as a short 1-point neutral site favorite. We’ve seen Omaha creep up from -1 to -1.5, signaling smart money siding with the favorite. Omaha is only receiving 59% of spread bets, signaling modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a half-point adjustment in their favor. Omaha has the better defensive efficiency (292nd vs 356th) and the better free throw shooting (75% vs 73%), which could prove crucial in a tight game. Ken Pom has Omaha winning by one point (81-80). He also has Omaha ranked higher (256th vs 268th). With Ken Pom predicting a one-point win, Omaha backers may prefer a moneyline bet (-125) as opposed to laying the points. These teams split their two head-to-head matchups this season, with Denver winning 95-80 on the road in late December and then Omaha winning 91-72 on the road in in late January. Sharps have also leaned under in this game, dropping the total from 155.5 to 154.

    Josh Appelbaum
    Josh Appelbaum
    Josh Appelbaum is a Sports Betting Analyst at VSiN and has been working in the betting industry since 2011. He has been with VSiN since 2019, contributing data-driven articles to VSiN.com, hosting the Morning Bets and Market Insights Podcasts and appearing on VSiN and DraftKings programs such as Follow the Money, The Lombardi Line, Sharp Money and The Sweat. He is a contrarian bettor and also the author of The Everything Guide to Sports Betting.

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