Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, live from the DraftKings studio in Boston.
You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s loaded College Basketball slate.
4 p.m. ET: Utah State at Boise State (-2.5, 145)
Utah State (17-2) is ranked 18th and just brushed aside Fresno State 83-62. Meanwhile, Boise State (14-5) is unranked but has won six of their last seven games and just edged Fresno State 72-68. This line opened with Boise State listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is unranked Boise State favored over 18th ranked Utah State? Shouldn’t it be the other way around? Sharps have embraced the fishy home favorite, as Boise State -2.5 is juiced up to -115 and some shops are even inching toward Boise State -3. In other words, all movement and liability is on the unranked home favorite. Boise State is receiving 67% of spread bets but 86% of spread dollars, signaling a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor. Boise State is the better three-point shooting team (34.4% vs 30.4%) and is also has the superior defensive efficiency (26th vs 51st). Ken Pom has Boise State winning by two points (73-71). Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 14-7 (67%) straight up this season and 57-20 (74%) straight up since 2022. Those looking to protect themselves in what could be a close game might prefer to play Boise State on the moneyline at -155. Boise State is receiving 42% of moneyline bets but 83% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pros siding with Boise State to win straight up. Boise State is 9-1 at home this season.
5:30 p.m. ET: Arizona (-3, 157) at Oregon
Arizona (14-5) is ranked 9th but is just 2-2 in their last four games and just fell to Oregon State 83-80. On the other hand, Oregon (14-5) is unranked and just snapped a two-game losing skid with an 80-61 blowout win over Arizona State. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too low and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with ranked Arizona. However, despite receiving 63% of bets we’ve seen Arizona fall from -4 to -3. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already backing the Wildcats to begin with? Because pros have gotten down on the contrarian home dog plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Ducks. Oregon is only receiving 37% of spread bets but 70% of spread dollars, a massive sharp contrarian bet split. Oregon also has buy-low value as an unranked team against a sell-high ranked opponent (433-358 ATS, 55% over the past two seasons). Oregon takes better care of the ball, ranking 44th in turnover percentage (14.9) compared to Arizona 126th (16.5). The Ducks also have the edge in three-point shooting percentage (37.6 vs 36.3). Oregon is a perfect 10-0 at home this season. Meanwhile, Arizona is just 2-3 on the road.
8:30 p.m. ET: Ohio State at Northwestern (-2.5, 139)
Ohio State (13-6) has lost four of their last five games and just fell to Nebraska 83-69. On the flip side, Northwestern (14-5) has won four of their last six games and just upset Illinois 96-91 in overtime. This line opened with Northwestern listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. We’ve seen Northwestern move from -1.5 to -2.5, signaling pro money laying the points with the short home favorite. Northwestern is receiving 70% of bets and dollars, evidence of both public and sharp support. Northwestern has several advantages on offense, including a better effective field goal percentage (53.7 vs 51.2), better turnover percentage (13.5 vs 15.5), better three-point shooting percentage (37.4 vs 34.4) and better two-point shooting percentage (52.4 vs 50.9). Ken Pom has Northwestern winning by two points (71-69). Northwestern is receiving 81% of moneyline bets but 96% of moneyline dollars at the price of -145. This bet split is another sign that pros prefer to back Northwestern to win the game straight up rather than laying the points. Northwestern 5-3 in conference play while Ohio State is 3-5. Northwestern is 10-1 at home compared to Ohio State 0-4 on the road.
