Today the weekend wraps up with a 24-game College Basketball slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today, including a pair of under-the-radar Conference Tournament games.
4 p.m. ET: Furman vs Samford (-2, 154)
This is the Semifinal of the Southern Conference Tournament. Furman (17-15) is the 5-seed and just took down Western Carolina 79-76 in the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, Samford (27-5) is the 1-seed and just swept aside Mercer 70-57 in the quarterfinals. This line opened with Samford listed as a 2-point neutral site favorite. We’ve seen Samford -2 get juiced up to -115, signaling sneaky sharp liability on the favorite laying the points. Some shops have even crept up to Samford -2.5. Essentially, all movement has been on the Samford side. Samford is receiving 85% of spread bets and 96% of spread dollars, further evidence of one-sided action going with the favorite. This is also one of the smaller and lesser bet games of the day, so that lopsided action is likely coming from a majority of sharper bettors as opposed to public bettors. Samford has the better offensive efficiency (57th vs 101st), better defensive efficiency (129th vs 202nd), better effective field goal percentage (57% vs 52%) and better three-point shooting (40% vs 33%). Ken Pom has Samford winning by five points (84-79). He also has Samford ranked higher (79th vs 139th). Those looking for added protection in what could be a close game may prefer a Samford moneyline play (-145). Samford is receiving 84% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars, indicating smart money backing Samford to win the game straight up.
4:30 p.m. ET: Michigan State (-3.5, 140) at Indiana
This is the final regular season game for both teams. Michigan State (18-12) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 53-49 win over Northwestern. On the other hand, Indiana (17-13) has won three straight and just took down Minnesota 70-58. This line opened with Michigan State listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. This line speaks volumes, as Indiana is at home and has been playing better than Michigan State as of late, yet the Spartans open laying a handful of points on the road. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know which side to take. However, despite the tickets being 50/50 we’ve seen juice liability on Michigan State -3.5 at -115, signaling a possible rise up to -4. Reading between the lines, it appears as though the sharper liability is on the Spartans. Michigan State has the better offensive efficiency (52nd vs 96th), better defensive efficiency (10th vs 91st), better three-point shooting (36% vs 33%) , better free-throw shooting (70% vs 66%) and takes better care of the ball (36th in turnovers vs 194th for Indiana). Ken Pom has Michigan State winning by four points (72-68). He also has Michigan State ranked much higher (19th vs 93rd). Those looking to back the Spartans but wary of laying points in what could potentially be a tight game may prefer a Michigan State moneyline play at -175. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 142.5 to 140.
8:30 p.m. ET: Texas A&M Commerce vs Northwestern State (pick’em, 136)
This is the First Round of the Southland Conference Tournament. Texas A&M Commerce (12-19) is the 7-seed while Northwestern State (9-22) is the 6-seed. These two teams just played each other in the regular season finale, with Texas A&M Commerce winning 83-80 at home in triple overtime. This line opened with Texas A&M Commerce listed as a 1-point neutral site favorite. We’ve seen this line fall down to a pick’em, signaling smart money backing Northwestern State in a bounce-back, revenge spot. Northwestern State is only receiving 47% of spread bets but a whopping 84% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. Northwestern State has the better effective field goal percentage (48% vs 46%) and better offensive rebound percentage (29% vs 24%). Ken Pom has Northwestern State winning by one point (69-68). He also has Northwestern State ranked slightly higher (232rd vs 238th). Although this is a neutral site game, Northwestern State may enjoy some “home court” advantage as the game will be played at the Legacy Center in Lake Charles, Louisiana, home of McNeese State. Northwestern State hails from Natchitoches, Louisiana about a 2.5-hour drive away. Texas A&M is from Commerce, Texas about a 5.5-hour drive away.
