Happy St. Patrick’s Day and Selection Sunday! Today we have a quality, not quantity, 5-game College Basketball slate of Conference Championship games. The Bracket will then be revealed later today.
You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of conference championship games today.
1 p.m. ET: Duquesne vs VCU (-2.5, 127.5)
This is the championship game of the Atlantic 10 tournament. The game will be played at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Duquesne (23-11) is the 6-seed and just outlasted St. Bonaventure 70-60 in yesterday’s semifinal. Meanwhile, VCU (22-12) is the 5-seed and just took down St. Joseph’s 66-60 in yesterday’s semifinal. This line opened with VCU listed as a 2-point neutral site favorite. Sharps seem to think this opener was a bit low and have gotten down on VCU, driving the Rams up from -2 to -2.5. VCU is receiving roughly 75% of spread bets and dollars, signaling lopsided support from both public and sharp bettors. VCU has the better offensive efficiency (104th vs 156th), better effective field goal percentage (53% vs 51%), better three-point shooting (36% vs 34%) and better free-throw shooting (78% vs 71%), which could prove critical in a tight game. Ken Pom has VCU winning by one point (66-65). He also has VCU ranked higher (76th vs 90th). Those looking to follow the sharp line move but wary of laying the points could instead target VCU on the moneyline at -145. This is also a revenge spot for VCU, who lost their only game against Duquense 69-59 on March 5th.
3:30 p.m. ET: Wisconsin vs Illinois (-3.5, 148)
This is the championship game of the Big Ten tournament. The game will be played at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Wisconsin (22-12) is the 5-seed and just shocked Purdue 76-75 in overtime in yesterday’s semifinal. On the other hand, Illinois (25-8) is the 2-seed and just brushed aside Nebraska 98-87 in yesterday’s semifinal. This line opened with Illinois listed as a 3-point neutral site favorite. Wiseguys have gotten down on Illinois, pushing the Illini up from -3 to -3.5. Illinois is receiving roughly 70% of spread bets and dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support. Illinois has a big edge offensively, averaging 84 PPG vs 75 PPG for Wisconsin. Illinois also has the better effective field goal percentage (54% vs 52%) and better offensive rebound percentage (36% vs 30%). Illinois averages 42 PRG vs 34 RPG for Wisconsin. Ken Pom has Illinois winning by two points (79-77), which makes an Illini moneyline play a bit more appealing (-165). This is also a “fade” spot of Wisconsin, who is coming off a grueling overtime game and massive upset win over top seeded Purdue and might now be looking at a letdown as they are set to play their fourth game in four days. Illinois beat Wisconsin 91-83 on March 2nd, the only time the two teams played each other during the regular season. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 152 to 148. The under is receiving 30% of bets but 65% of dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split. This would match the “tired legs” under system, as Wisconsin is playing their fourth game in four days and Illinois is playing their third game in three days.
