Today we have a loaded 31-game Super Tuesday College Basketball slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of marquee matchups tonight.
7 p.m. ET: Kentucky at Mississippi State (-3.5, 156.5)
Kentucky (19-8, ranked 16th) has won three of their last four games and just blasted Alabama 117-95. Meanwhile, Mississippi State (19-8) has won five straight games and just crushed LSU 87-67. This line opened with Mississippi State listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window as fast as they can to grab Kentucky plus the points. Why? Because Kentucky is ranked and Mississippi State is not. You have to take the “better” team getting points, right? Not so fast. Despite 85% of spread bets backing Kentucky we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Mississippi State -2.5 to -3.5. Some shops have even touched -4. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Mississippi State, with pros fading the trendy dog Wildcats and instead laying the points with the fishy home favorite. Mississippi State is only receiving 15% of spread bets, making the Bulldogs the top contrarian play of the day. Mississippi State has the better offensive rebound percentage (36% vs 29%) and far better defensive efficiency rating (11th vs 79th). Mississippi State is allowing 68 PPG compared to 78 PPG for Kentucky. Ken Pom has Mississippi State winning by two points (79-77), which means savvy bettor may prefer to play the Bulldogs on the moneyline at -170. Mississippi State is 11-2 at home this season. This is also a revenge spot for the Bulldogs, who lost to the Wildcats 90-77 on the road in mid-January. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 26-15 (63%) straight up this season and 69-28 (71%) since the start of last season.
9 p.m. ET: NC State at Florida State (-2.5, 151.5)
NC State (17-10) has won two of their last three games and just beat Boston College 81-70. Conversely, Florida State (14-13) has dropped four of their last five games and just fell to Clemson 74-63. This line opened with Florida State listed as a 2-point home favorite. Pros seem to think this opener was a bit short and have gotten down on the Seminoles, driving the home team up from -2 to -2.5. Florida State is receiving 62% of spread bets but 85% of spread dollars, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Florida State will bank on their superior defensive efficiency (52nd vs 72nd). The Seminoles rank 27th in the country at forcing turnovers while NC State ranks 65th. Ken Pom has Florida State winning by three points (76-73). Those looking to protect themselves in what could be a tight game may prefer a Florida State moneyline play (-145). Currently 56% of moneyline bets and 65% of moneyline dollars are taking the Seminoles to win straight up. ACC home favorites are 62-22 (74%) straight up in conference play this season. We’ve also seen some over money show up, driving the total from 151 to 151.5. Only 42% of bets but 55% of dollars are taking the over, a rare sharp contrarian over discrepancy.
