HomeCollege BasketballBetting Splits and CBB Sharp Money Picks for Wednesday February 28th

    Betting Splits and CBB Sharp Money Picks for Wednesday February 28th

    Josh Appelbaum examines where smart money is leaning for Lafayette-Navy and Florida Gulf Coast-North Florida.

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    Today we have a loaded 58-game midweek College Basketball slate to get down on. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.

    In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of under-the-radar games tonight.

     

    7 p.m. ET: Lafayette at Navy (-2.5, 131)

    Lafayette (11-18) has lost four of their last five games and just fell to Lehigh 71-63. On the other hand, Navy (10-17) has won two straight games and just took down Holy Cross 76-66. This line opened with Navy listed as a 1-point home favorite. Pros have pounced on Navy laying the short chalk at home, steaming the Midshipmen up from -1 to -2.5. This move is especially notable due to the fact that this is an added/extra game with an ID number of 306517-306518. These are the tiny games that the public has no interest in and can’t even find on their app. As a result, if we see a line move in these unpopular matchups it’s almost always due to sharp money targeting a particular side. Navy is receiving 70% of spread bets but 94% of spread dollars, further evidence of the larger, sharper wagers backing the home team. Navy has the higher ranked offensive efficiency (331st vs 343rd), better offensive rebound percentage (31% vs 24%) and also takes better care of the ball (56th in turnovers vs 203rd for Lafayette). Ken Pom has Navy winning by two points (65-63). As a result, Navy might be preferable on the moneyline (-140). Navy is only receiving 48% of moneyline bets but 89% of moneyline dollars, a massive sharp contrarian bet split. Navy is 8-5 at home. Lafayette is 6-7 on the road. This is also a revenge spot for Navy, who lost to Lafayette on the road 78-62 back in mid-January.

    7 p.m. ET: Florida Gulf Coast at North Florida (-3.5, 144)

    Florida Gulf Coast (12-17) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 90-81 win over Queens. Conversely, North Florida (15-14) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Jacksonville 62-50. This line opened with North Florida listed as a 3-point home favorite. We’ve seen North Florida creep up from -3 to -3.5, signaling smart money laying the points with the home team. Once again, this would qualify as an “obscure sharp line move” as this is another added/extra game (306513-306514) featuring line movement driven almost exclusively by pros who have targeted the tiny, unpopular matchup. North Florida has the far better offensive efficiency (162nd vs 226th) and a massive edge at the free-throw stripe (79% vs 70%), which could prove crucial in a tight game. North Florida is averaging 78 PPG compared to 71 PPG for Florida Gulf Coast. Ken Pom has North Florida winning by five points (74-69), which provides actionable value to North Florida laying the current price. Pom also has North Florida ranked higher (230th vs 262nd). North Florida is a buy-low, sell-high value plays as they are coming off a loss while Florida Gulf Coast is coming off a win. Pros seem to be especially interested in a moneyline play on North Florida (-165), as the Ospreys are receiving 85% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars, an overwhelming bet split in their favor. North Florida is 10-4 at home. Florida Gulf Coast is just 3-10 on the road. North Florida crushed Florida Gulf Coast 78-58 on the road back in early January. North Florida is 8-6 in conference play while Florida Gulf Coast is 6-8. North Florida also has a one-day rest advantage, having last played on February 23rd vs Florida Gulf Coast last playing on February 24th.

    Josh Appelbaum
    Josh Appelbaum
    Josh Appelbaum is a Sports Betting Analyst at VSiN and has been working in the betting industry since 2011. He has been with VSiN since 2019, contributing data-driven articles to VSiN.com, hosting the Morning Bets and Market Insights Podcasts and appearing on VSiN and DraftKings programs such as Follow the Money, The Lombardi Line, Sharp Money and The Sweat. He is a contrarian bettor and also the author of The Everything Guide to Sports Betting.

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