Today March Madness continues with a pair of First Four matchups along with ten NIT games. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of big games tonight.
6:40 p.m. ET: Grambling State vs Montana State (-4.5, 134)
This First Four matchup features a pair of 16-seeds looking for the chance to play 1-seed Purdue. The game will be played at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio. Grambling State (20-14) just beat Texas Southern 75-66 to win the SWAC tournament. On the flip side, Montana State (17-17) just took down Montana 85-70 to win the Big Sky tournament. This line opened with Montana State listed as a 4.5-point neutral site favorite. The public is leaning toward laying the points with Montana State. However, despite receiving 55% of spread bets we’ve seen Montana State remain frozen at -4.5. Some shops have even briefly dipped down to -4 or even touched -3.5. Essentially, all movement and liability seems to be on Grambling State as the line has either stayed the same or moved in their favor. Grambling State has contrarian value, receiving only 45% of spread bets in a heavily bet game. Grambling State has the far better offensive rebound percentage (28% vs 21%), better effective field goal percentage defense (49% vs 52%) and is also better at forcing turnovers (59th vs 74th). Ken Pom has Montana State winning by two points (69-67), which provides actionable value on Grambling State +4.5. March Madness dogs that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 84-64 ATS (57%) since 2018.
8 p.m. ET: UNLV at Princeton (-3, 141.5)
This is the First Round of the NIT. UNLV (19-12) just lost to San Diego State 74-71 in the Mountain West tournament quarterfinals. Similarly, Princeton (24-4) just fell to Brown 90-81 in the Ivy League tournament semifinals. This line opened with Princeton listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public is biased against Ivy League teams and they’re rushing to the window to grab the points with UNLV. However, despite 60% of spread bets taking UNLV we’ve seen the line move further toward Princeton (-1.5 to -3). This signals sharp reverse line movement on Princeton, with pros fading trendy dog UNLV and instead embracing the unpopular home favorite. Princeton is only receiving 40% of spread bets but 65% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Princeton has the better offensive efficiency (28th vs 74th), better effective field goal percentage (55% vs 51%), better three point shooting (35% vs 33%), better free throw shooting (81% vs 73%) and takes better care of the ball (1st in the nation in turnovers vs 138th). Ken Pom has Princeton winning by four points (76-72). He also has Princeton ranked higher (65th vs 72nd). This is a true home game for Princeton. The Tigers are 12-0 at home this season. Those wary of a one-possession game may prefer a Princeton moneyline play at -155. Home favorites are 176-73 (71%) straight up in the NIT over the past decade.
9:10 p.m. ET: Colorado (-3, 142.5) vs Boise State
This First Four matchup features a pair of 10-seeds fighting for the opportunity to face 7-seed Florida. The game will be played at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio. Colorado (24-10) just lost to Oregon 75-68 in the Pac-12 tournament final. Meanwhile, Boise State (22-10) fell to New Mexico 76-66 in the Mountain West tournament quarterfinals. This line opened with Colorado listed as a 2-point neutral site favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re hammering Colorado laying short chalk, with the Buffaloes receiving a whopping 80% of spread bets. This heavily lopsided action has driven Colorado up from -2 to -3, with some shops even approaching -3.5. At this point, much of the value on Colorado is gone as the line has moved so much in their favor. Colorado is also a heavy public play, which is a red flag this time of year. As a result, we are now seeing a “value play” opportunity for savvy contrarian bettors to buy low on Boise State. The Broncos aren’t “sharp” but they have excellent contrarian inflated line value, as they are only receiving 20% of spread bets in the most heavily bet game of the night. In other words, Boise State is the top “bet against the public play.” Also, Ken Pom has Colorado winning by just one point (73-72), which provides actionable value on Boise State at the inflated +3, or even better if you can shop around and find the hook (+3.5). Boise State has the better defensive efficiency (28th vs 39th) and also takes better care of the ball (147th in turnovers vs 260th for Colorado). Boise State also has a rest advantage, having last played on March 14th vs Colorado last played March 16th.
