HomeCollege BasketballBetting Splits and CBI Sharp Money Picks for Monday March 25th

    Betting Splits and CBI Sharp Money Picks for Monday March 25th

    Josh Appelbaum examines where smart money is leaning for Montana-Arkansas State and Chicago State-Fairfield.

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    Today we take a break from March Madness but still have five College Basketball games to choose from across the CBI and CIT. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.

    In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of CBI games tonight.

     

    2 p.m. ET: Montana vs Arkansas State (-2.5, 156)

    This CBI quarterfinal matchup will be played at Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Florida. Montana (24-11) is the 5-seed and just outlasted Presbyterian in overtime 82-79 in the first round. Meanwhile, Arkansas State (19-16) is the 4-seed and just squeaked by Bethune Cookman 86-85 in the first round. This line opened with Arkansas State listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. The public is laying the short chalk with Arkansas State. However, despite receiving 61% of spread bets Arkansas State has remained frozen at -2.5. Some shops have briefly risen to Arkansas State -3 and are juicing up the Montana +3 to -115, signaling a possible fall back down to 2.5. Essentially, we are looking at a sharp line freeze on Montana, with books reluctant to move the line up for fear of giving out a better number to contrarian Montana backers. Montana has the better effective field goal percentage (55% vs 52%), better free throw shooting (80% vs 70%) and takes better care of the ball (45th in turnovers vs 126th). Ken Pom has Arkansas State winning by one point (82-81), which provides actionable value on Montana especially if you can shop around and find a +3. Sharps have also hammered the under, dropping the total from 159 to 156. Currently 67% of bets and 72% of money is taking the under. Since the total has fallen so much, it will be interesting to see if there is any sharp buyback that raises the line back up closer to game time, especially with Ken Pom predicting 163 total points.

    5 p.m. ET: Chicago State vs Fairfield (-5, 145)

    This CBI quarterfinal matchup will be played at Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Florida. Chicago State (13-18) is the 15-seed and just upset UC San Diego 77-75 in the first round. On the other hand, Fairfield (23-12) is the 7-seed and just took down Little Rock 82-75 in the first round. This line opened with Fairfield listed as a 4.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps seem to think this opener was a bit low and have gotten down on Fairfield, steaming the Stags up from -4.5 to -5. Some shops are even flirting with a move of up to -5.5. In other words, all movement and liability has been on Fairfield laying the points. Fairfield is receiving 61% of spread bets but 83% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Fairfield has the better offensive efficiency (128th vs 295th), better effective field goal percentage (52% vs 46%), better three point shooting (37% vs 30%) and better free throw shooting (76% vs 70%). Ken Pom has Fairfield winning by seven points (77-70), which provides actionable value on Fairfield at the current price. Ken Pom also has Fairfield ranked much higher (164th vs 295th). We’ve also seen smart money hit the over, raising the total from 144 to 145 despite just 52% of bets taking the over. CBI overs are 5-2 this postseason and 49-28 (64%) since 2017.

    Josh Appelbaum
    Josh Appelbaum
    Josh Appelbaum is a Sports Betting Analyst at VSiN and has been working in the betting industry since 2011. He has been with VSiN since 2019, contributing data-driven articles to VSiN.com, hosting the Morning Bets and Market Insights Podcasts and appearing on VSiN and DraftKings programs such as Follow the Money, The Lombardi Line, Sharp Money and The Sweat. He is a contrarian bettor and also the author of The Everything Guide to Sports Betting.

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