Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, March 25, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top NBA Resources:
- NBA Betting Primer (Free Download)
- NBA Public Betting Percentages & Betting Splits
- NBA Odds
- NBA Injury Report Today
- Parlay Calculator
- NBA Prop Bet Analyzer
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, CHICAGO, HOUSTON, DENVER, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, BOSTON, PHOENIX, DALLAS
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (HOME or ROAD), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, BOSTON, DALLAS, INDIANA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, INDIANA
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): BROOKLYN ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT ML, WASHINGTON ML, INDIANA ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND ML, NEW YORK ML, BOSTON ML, CHICAGO ML, PHOENIX ML, HOUSTON ML, DENVER ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-TOR, WSH-CHI, MEM-DEN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): WSH-CHI, DAL-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CHA-CLE, PLAY OVER in DET-NYK, PLAY UNDER in BKN-TOR, PLAY UNDER in MEM-DEN
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams on 3+DaysRest are 175-117 SU & 170-114 ATS (59.9%) versus teams playing on OneDayRest over the L3 seasons.
3/25: DALLAS at Utah
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-8.5 at UTA)
* Home teams playing a 4thin6Days game were 48-24 SU & 39-32-1 ATS (54.9%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game last season.
3/25: LA CLIPPERS vs. Indiana
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-6 vs IND)
3/25: SACRAMENTO vs. Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-9.5 vs PHI)
* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 31-30 SU and 35-26 ATS (57.4%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game in the last two seasons.
3/25: LA CLIPPERS vs. Indiana
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-6 vs IND)
* Home teams playing in a 4thin6Days game scenario were 23-9 SU and 21-11 ATS (65.6%) last season hosting teams playing on 3+DaysRest.
3/25: UTAH vs. Dallas
System Match: PLAY UTAH (+8.5 vs DAL)
* Hosts playing in a H2H b2b game scenario were 18-13 SU and 19-12 ATS (61.3%) last season hosting teams playing a 4thStraightRoad game.
3/25: LA CLIPPERS vs. Indiana
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-6 vs IND)
* Over the total was 101-69 (59.4%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
3/25: Ofer the total in UTAH-DALLAS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 237)
* Under the total was 94-63-1 (59.9%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on OneDayRest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
3/25: UNDER the total in SAN ANTONIO-PHOENIX
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 233.5)
* Over the total was 74-55 (57.4%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4thin6Days game.
3/25: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-INDIANA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 233)
3/25: Over the total in SACRAMENTO-PHILADELPHIA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 222)
* Over the total was 78-53 (59.5%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
3/25: Over the total in LA CLIPPERS-INDIANA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 233)
* Over the total was 65-54 (54.6%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host was playing a 3rd in 4 Days game.
3/25: OVER the total in LA CLIPPERS-INDIANA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 233)
* Over the total was 31-19 (62%) over the L2 seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a A2A b2b game.
3/25: OVER the total in LA CLIPPERS-INDIANA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 233)
* Over the total was 38-29 (56.7%) last season when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
3/25: Over the total in NEW YORK-DETROIT
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 210.5)
Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season
There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.
ATLANTA is 18-23 SU and 13-28 ATS (31.7%) when playing on a full day’s rest this season
3/25 vs. Boston
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+10.5 vs BOS)
DALLAS boasts an impressive 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS (82.4%) record this season as a single-digit road favorite.
3/25 at Utah
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (-8.5 at UTA)
The LA CLIPPERS boast a phenomenal 29-14 SU and 25-18 ATS (58.1%) record as a single-digit favorite this season.
3/25 vs. Indiana
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-6 vs IND)
NEW YORK has dominated its weakest competition this season, going 21-1 SU and 16-5-1 ATS (76.2%) versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of less than 95.
3/25 vs. Detroit
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-16 vs DET)
PHOENIX is 8-3-1 Over the total (72.7%) when playing in the second of consecutive games against non-divisional conference opponents in the 2023-24 season.
3/25 at San Antonio
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 233.5)
WASHINGTON is 20-13 ATS (60.6%) as a road underdog this season but 10-21 ATS (32.3%) as a home underdog
3/25 at Chicago
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+13 at CHI)
Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation NBA Betting Trends
The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* MEMPHIS is 21-7 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
3/25: Under the total in DENVER-MEMPHIS
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 213.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 151-30 SU but just 75-103-3 ATS (42.1%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE SACRAMENTO (*if they become double-digit favorites vs PHI (-9.5 currently)*)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 80-62 (56.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 146-120 (54.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 192-139 (58%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CHA-CLE (o/u at 206), PLAY OVER in NYK-DET (o/u at 210.5), PLAY OVER in BOS-ATL (o/u at 224.5), PLAY OVER in WSH-CHI (o/u at 225.5), PLAY OVER in PHX-SAS (o/u at 233.5), PLAY OVER in POR-HOU (o/u at 224.5), PLAY OVER in MEM-DEN (o/u at 213.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 190-116 SU but 136-166-4 ATS (45%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 26-32 ATS.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-12 vs POR)
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 131-79 SU but 92-114-4 ATS (44.7%) in the follow-up contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons. Included among this is a 78-101 ATS mark when not playing the next day.
System Match: FADE UTAH (+8.5 vs DAL), FADE INDIANA (+6 at LAC)
Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 126-44 SU and 105-63-2 ATS (62.5%) in their last 170 tries.
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-11.5 vs CHA)
Quality of wins/losses can matter
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 226-125 SU but just 147-193-11 ATS (43.2%) in the next contest when favored again
System Match: FADE DENVER (-15 vs MEM)
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 239-187 SU but 183-232-11 ATS (44.1%) over the last 5-1/2 seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 33-60 ATS.
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+10.5 vs BOS)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 214-233 SU and 200-243-4 ATS (45.1%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-12 vs POR), FADE INDIANA (+6 at LAC)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 224-221 SU and 201-232-10 ATS (46.4%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-10.5 at ATL), FADE HOUSTON (-12 vs POR), FADE ATLANTA (+10.5 vs BOS)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 119-145 SU and 119-139-6 ATS (46.1%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-10.5 at ATL)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 148-123 SU and 155-109-7 ATS (58.7%) run.
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-16 vs DET)
Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebound well when favored the next time out, going 142-53 SU and 110-83-2 ATS (57%) over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO (-13 vs WSH)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 26-54 SU but 42-38 ATS (52.5%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING PORTLAND (+12 at HOU)
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in rare role of playing as road favorites, going 32-9 SU and 30-9-2 ATS (76.9%) in their last 41 tries.
System Matches: PLAY BROOKLYN (-6.5 at TOR)
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 85-15 SU but 42-56-3 ATS (42.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (-12 vs POR)
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 51-14 SU and 41-22-2 ATS (65.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-10.5 at ATL)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 58-63 SU and 67-52-3 ATS (56.3%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY UTAH (+8.5 vs DAL)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 179-220 ATS (44.9%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 23-101 SU and 52-69-3 ATS (43%).
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (+6.5 vs BKN), FADE BOSTON (-10.5 at ATL), FADE HOUSTON (-12 vs POR)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 39-56 ATS (41.1%) in the next game, including 17-30 ATS (36.2%) on the road over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-10.5 at ATL), FADE HOUSTON (-12 vs POR)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +9.5 (+2.8), 2. CHARLOTTE +11.5 (+2.5), 3. INDIANA +6 (+2.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -12.5 (+2.1), 2. BOSTON -10.5 (+1.6), 3(tie). NEW YORK -16 (+0.7) and DALLAS -8.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +9.5 (+4.2), 2. MEMPHIS +15 (+3.2), 3. PORTLAND +12.5 (+2.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -10.5 (+3.3), 2. NEW YORK -16 (+1.0), 3. PHOENIX -12 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-LAC OVER 233 (+3.2), 2. CHA-CLE OVER 205.5 (+1.4), 3. DAL-UTA OVER 237 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-HOU UNDER 224.5 (-3.5), 2. PHX-SAS UNDER 233.5 (-1.0), 3. DET-NYK UNDER 210.5 (-0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +11.5 (+2.4), 2. PHILADELPHIA +9.5 (+2.3), 3. WASHINGTON +13 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -16 (+2.1), 2. DALLAS -8.5 (+1.2), 3. PHOENIX -12 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-LAC OVER 233 (+2.9), 2. BKN-TOR OVER 219 (+1.3), 3. BOS-ATL OVER 224.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-CLE UNDER 205.5 (-3.7), 2. POR-HOU UNDER 224.5 (-3.5), 3. MEM-DEN UNDER 213.5 (-2.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(519) BOSTON at (520) ATLANTA
* BOSTON is 4-1 ATS in the last five games at Atlanta
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS
(517) BROOKLYN at (518) TORONTO
* Favorites are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 of the BRK-TOR series
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS
(513) CHARLOTTE at (514) CLEVELAND
* Road teams are 16-5-1 ATS in the CHA-CLE series since 2016
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS
(529) DALLAS at (530) UTAH
* Underdogs are 11-6 ATS in DAL-UTA series since 2021
System Match: PLAY UTAH ATS
(515) DETROIT at (516) NEW YORK
* Road teams have won the last five ATS in the DET-NYK series
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS
(533) INDIANA at (534) LA CLIPPERS
* LA CLIPPERS are on a 7-2 ATS surge vs. Indiana
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS
(527) MEMPHIS at (528) DENVER
* DENVER has won the last four ATS hosting Memphis
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS
(531) PHILADELPHIA at (532) SACRAMENTO
* PHILADELPHIA is on a 7-1 ATS run versus Sacramento
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS
(523) PHOENIX at (524) SAN ANTONIO
* Road teams are 7-1 in the last eight of the PHO-SAN series
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS
(525) PORTLAND at (526) HOUSTON
* PORTLAND has won the last six ATS at Houston
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND ATS
(521) WASHINGTON at (522) CHICAGO
* Home teams have won the last three ATS in the WAS-CHI series
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
