College Basketball Best Bets:
Happy college basketball season! The first month of the college hoops season is wild, as we’ll see some huge line movements, some shocking results, and a whole lot of uncertainty. Most teams across the country whether they are a major, mid-major, low-major, or something beneath that look extremely different than they did last season. It will take some time to build up relevant data, but the hope is that we can rely on coaching tendencies, shot selection mismatches, and some returning production to find good wagers.
With college basketball all day long like we have today or on most Saturdays, I try not to look at games that begin earlier than 4 p.m. ET and try my best to look later than that more often than not. Lead time is important and so is being fair to readers who may not see the article right away. For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my Monday-Saturday article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Ohio Bobcats (-3.5, 159.5)
7 p.m. ET
We’ve got a lot of Sun Belt vs. MAC matchups on opening night, as those teams are playing cross-conference games against each other. Ohio is favored at home here over Arkansas State, who returns basically nothing from last season. I do think that former Alabama assistant Ryan Pannone is a really good hire, but it’s going to take some time in Jonesboro.
As we know, Alabama has one of the highest Rim & 3 Rates in the nation, trying to play like an extreme NBA offense. Conceptually, I love that. But, I don’t know that this roster is really equipped for that right now. Top transfer Matt Hayman ranked in the 87th percentile in PPG, 82nd percentile in RPG, and 94th percentile in SPG per CBB Analytics, but he’s the only transfer to be above the national average in scoring.
Hayman was a 35.6% 3-point shooter last season at Stephen F. Austin, but not a great free throw shooter at all and carried a very high usage rate for the Lumberjacks. Jalen Hampton was a great interior player at Missouri State, but he’s only 6-foot-7, so I’m curious how much success he can have inside with a rebuilt, retooled offense and a scheme that will likely be inefficient at the outset.
Ohio, meanwhile, returns leading scorer Jackson Paveletzke and also grabbed another efficient interior scorer from rival Toledo in Javan Simmons. Opponents did bomb away at 37.6% against Ohio last season, so perimeter defense was a focus for head coach Jeff Boals in the portal and in practice. But, the nice thing is that Ohio had the 16th-lowest 3P Rate against last season at 32.6%, so at least they mostly ran teams off the 3-point line. With a solid offense, I think Ohio’s relative lack of turnover and more stability with an entrenched head coach are difference makers tonight.
Pick: Ohio -3.5 (-108)
South Alabama Jaguars at Toledo Rockets (-2.5, 150.5)
7 p.m. ET
Another Sun Belt vs. MAC matchup has caught my attention here, as Toledo hosts South Alabama. We’ve seen money hit the board on the jaguars here, dropping this line from 4 to 2.5, but I disagree with the line move. Toledo has historically been a really good 3-point shooting team under Tod Kowalczyk, but last year’s team ended a string of 10 straight seasons shooting at least 35% from deep.
In fact, the Rockets only shot 33.6%, the lowest for the program since 2012-13. To combat this, Kowalczyk looked for shooters in the portal, pulling Kyler VanderJagt from rival Central Michigan and Sean Craig from IU Indy. Craig was a 38% triggerman from deep and so was VanderJagt in Mount Pleasant.
Toledo is a poor defensive team, but Torvik has South Alabama with the 277th-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency coming into the season. All of last season’s top scorers are gone and there weren’t many notable transfers brought in to help a team that shot under 32% from 3. This should be something of a bounce back season for the Rockets and I think a season of regression for South Alabama.
Pick: Toledo -2.5 (-112)
Hampton Pirates at Milwaukee Panthers (-5.5, 144.5)
8 p.m. ET
After really slowing things down last season, Hampton head coach Ivan Thomas may start to push the pace a little bit more this season. The Norfolk native and longtime Big East assistant led the Pirates to their first winning season in a long time last year at 17-16. He’s got a lot of returnees who seem to believe in the direction of the program and that’s always a good sign in today’s college basketball climate.
Milwaukee has a lot of new faces, but Bart Lundy’s teams play a style of basketball that I love. They hammer the offensive glass and get a lot of high-percentage looks at the rim. Last year’s Panthers team was fourth in the nation in shot share on Close Twos per Torvik. Hampton was 336th, but they were a top-60 team in ORB%, so I think they’ll have to improve in that area this season.
Along with their usual style of getting to the rim, Milwaukee brought in a couple transfer guards with good size in Amar Augillard (Fresno State) and Seth Hubbard (Toledo), as Augillard ranked in the 99th percentile in PTS/40 per CBB Analytics (points per 40 minutes). He was limited to 11 games, but the two-time transfer missed all of 2024 and seemed to be getting back on track before his season-ending injury.
Early in the season, officials are instructed to pay attention to the rules mandates and try to set the standard for the season. These are two excellent offensive rebounding teams, which will lead to fouls and points without the clock moving. Milwaukee was also just outside the top-100 in adjusted tempo last season per Torvik and teams often play quicker early in the season. That should speed this game up a little bit as well.
Pick: Over 144.5 (-110)
Idaho Vandals at Washington State Cougars (-8.5, 157.5)
9:30 p.m. ET
We head to Pullman for a late one between Washington State and Idaho. The Cougars are a regression team for me this season. Head coach David Riley brought a bunch of his talent with him from Eastern Washington last season, including Cedric Coward, LeJuan Watts, Ethan Price, and Dane Erikstrup. He also rangled in Nate Calmese from rival Washington. That level of continuity really helped, even if Coward only played six games before being lost for the season.
Coward is now in the NBA with the Grizzlies organization. Watts transferred to Texas Tech. Price and Erikstrup are playing overseas. Calmese is at Wake Forest. Even Isaiah Watts transferred to Maryland. So, he’s lost one NBA player, two international pros, and transfers to the Big 12, ACC, and Big Ten. It is not easy to replace that level of production. I really think this roster has taken several steps back.
Washington State beat Idaho by 23 last season, but four of those departed players were in double figures. Idaho actually had more shot attempts at the rim in that game and hung in there well on the glass and in the turnover department. I really liked this team coming into last season with Alex Pribble and they underperformed, but a lot of the same talent is back. They are a little bit undersized in some areas, but Washington State is not an overly tall team and their best finishers at the rim last season were guards.
Washington State just has so much to replace here in a game that will probably be a bit of a pace war, as the Vandals play a lot slower than the Cougars. The Cougars also had a 20.3% TO% on offense while being 11th in eFG%. That’s a massive sign of regression for me, as they didn’t value possessions, but made a ton of shots to make up for it. All the shot-makers are gone.
Pick: Idaho +8.5 (-112)
