BYU vs. Arizona
Plenty of big-time college basketball matchups on Tuesday lived up to the hype and now we get another fun card of hoops on Wednesday. The Wildcats are looking to move closer to locking down a No. 1 seed, while the Cougars are seeking a huge road win to help improve their resume in the Big 12 battle featuring BYU vs. Arizona in one of the signature February 17 matchups.
This is the nightcap of another ESPN doubleheader, as Arkansas vs. Alabama with a top-25 SEC matchup tips off at 7 p.m. ET and this tilt in Tucson goes off at 9 p.m. ET. All of these games with NCAA Tournament teams matter from a seeding standpoint, so even though we aren’t talking about a bubble battle here, we are talking about a game that matters a lot come March 15.
This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 17, 6:30 pm PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
BYU vs. Arizona (-12.5, 166.5)
9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
If points are what you want to see on Wednesday night, this looks to be a good game for you, especially after the Arkansas vs. Alabama game with far and away the highest total on the board. Even though Arizona is second in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency for Bart Torvik and third for KenPom, the tempo at which this game should be played lends itself to a lot of scoring.
The question then becomes whether or not BYU can keep up. Arizona, who is 9-2 in Quadrant 1 games as defined by Torvik and 4-1 in Quadrant 1-A games, has played a very good schedule, but has some strong defensive numbers in spite of the level of competition. The Wildcats have faced the 25th-ranked slate of opposing offenses per KenPom and get a very good BYU offense here, a top-10 unit for Pomeroy and top-15 group for Torvik.
Arizona has given up some points this season with their style of play, but this is the third-ranked team by eFG% defense and 2P% defense in the nation. The Wildcats are also one of the nation’s best glass cleaners on both ends of the floor, so they get second-chance opportunities and prevent them at a very high rate. The one thing that Arizona doesn’t do a lot is shoot 3s, as their 3P Rate ranks among the five lowest teams in the country. You would think that would make it hard to win games by margin, but 19 of Arizona’s 23 wins have been by more than six points and nine of their 10 conference wins.
But, the Wildcats are scuffling a bit, losing to Kansas and Texas Tech in their last two conference efforts. They only had 1.05 and 1.06 points per possession in those games, easily their lowest outputs of the season against Big 12 foes. Koa Peat, who is averaging nearly 14 points per contest, only played 11 minutes in the loss to Texas Tech and was held to a season-low two points. He’ll miss this game and this weekend’s game at Houston at a minimum after suffering a lower-leg injury.
BYU is 14-0 against Quadrant 2 or lower opponents, but that’s not really how you build a good NCAA Tournament resume. They are 5-6 in Quadrant 1 games as defined by Torvik, but 0-5 in Quadrant 1-A games, which this one will be at McKale Memorial Center. In those Q1-A games, the Cougars have lost by 2, 13, 3, 8, and 11, with the three-point loss coming at home to Arizona back on Jan. 26.
That three-point finish does not really express how the game played out. Arizona never trailed in the second half, led by 13 at the break, and opened up a lead of as many as 19 points before a feverish comeback attempt from BYU. AJ Dybantsa led the way with 24 points for BYU, but it should be noted that he was 11-of-16 at the free throw line and just 6-of-24 from the floor. BYU was only 16-of-38 on 2s in that contest.
BYU ranks 14th among Big 12 teams in adjusted defensive efficiency, ninth in eFG% defense, and 13th in TO%. Arizona is tops in adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense, so Dybantsa and the Cougars will need to be much more efficient on offense to avoid needing such a dramatic comeback to make the game close. For what it’s worth, Peat had 10 points and three rebounds in the first game.
BYU vs. Arizona Prediction
The first game between these two teams was played to a robust 76 possessions and featured 51 free throw attempts, 32 by Arizona as the Cougars put together a foul fest to extend the game in hopes of coming back. BYU was 13-of-34 from 3 in that game, shooting a good bit above their 34.8% 3P% in Big 12 play and now they’re on the road. The total for this game seems a little bit lofty, as 76 possessions would be on the high end for both teams and I’d expect Tommy Lloyd’s team to make some defensive adjustments, especially in light of their recent offensive struggles.
Pick: Under 166.5
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