College basketball best bets and projections

It was a monster Sunday if you tailed all of my bets that I gave out here on and on my X account (@TShoeIndex); we went 8-3, cashing our one NFL bet (Chiefs team total under 20.5) and sweeping men’s hoops (3-0) while turning in a profitable 4-3 day in women’s hoops. I hope to really keep that rolling, as we seem to hit our stride lately, likely as a result of the formula tweak I mentioned last week. For the college basketball season, we’re now 60-53-1 in men’s and 106-74 in women’s (all women’s best bets can be found on my X timeline).

Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.


These “Projections and Best Bets” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on. 

As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors. 

Here are the TSI projections for today, January 29th:

How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.


Alabama A&MPrairie View-8.8149.1
Alabama StateTexas Southern-2.9133.6
Alcorn StateBethune-Cookman-5.2152.0
Arkansas-Pine BluffGrambling-6.5149.5
Boston UniversityHoly Cross1.4137.5
Coppin StateHoward-6.3141.5
Delaware StateNorth Carolina Central-2.1139.0
DukeVirginia Tech1.5146.5
Florida A&MJackson State-4.2150.6
Houston ChristianSoutheastern Louisiana-1.1142.5
LamarNew Orleans15.2156.5
Maryland-Eastern ShoreSouth Carolina State0.7145.3
McNeese StateNorthwestern State20.5143.2
Mississippi Valley StateSouthern-23.3137.1
Morgan StateNorfolk State-16.9147.8
Texas A&M-CommerceTexas A&M-Corpus Christi-4.1139.1


Lamar -9

Coppin State/Howard Over 136.5


Alabama A&MPrairie View7.3125.5
Alabama StateTexas Southern-16.5123.8
Alcorn StateBethune-Cookman-12.0120.7
Arkansas-Pine BluffGrambling4.4150.0
Boston UniversityHoly Cross-15.5122.4
Coppin StateHoward0.4121.3
Delaware StateNorth Carolina Central-11.6142.8
Florida A&MJackson State-22.0131.4
Louisiana StateMississippi State9.8147.6
Maryland-Eastern ShoreSouth Carolina State25.4120.9
Mississippi Valley StateSouthern-13.4128.0
Morgan StateNorfolk State-30.0126.1