College basketball best bets and projections

We were a late collapse by Western Michigan away from a 2-0 sweep in men’s basketball yesterday, as Coastal Carolina won outright as a small underdog to cash our other best bet, giving us a split on the night. We’re back today with a couple more bets on the men’s side and hopefully getting involved again on the women’s side but it’s been slim pickings on that front lately.

Follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get my women’s plays as soon as I make them and before the lines move in response


Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.

These “College Basketball Best Bets and Projections” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on. 

As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors. 

Here are the TSI projections for today, March 6th:

How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.


ArkansasLouisiana State2.7151.0
Boston CollegeMiami (FL)-3.2150.0
Brigham YoungIowa State-3.2147.8
Central Connecticut StateSaint Francis (PA)11.8140.2
Central FloridaHouston-8.5138.0
DavidsonLoyola (IL)0.2141.3
East CarolinaSouthern Methodist-13.3140.5
Eastern IllinoisSouthern Illinois-Edwardsville0.2141.1
Fairleigh DickinsonLe Moyne-2.7149.5
Florida AtlanticNorth Texas1.3143.3
Fresno StateNew Mexico-16.5149.4
George MasonRhode Island5.8146.6
George WashingtonSt. Bonaventure-7.7151.4
Houston ChristianLamar-19.4152.2
Incarnate WordTexas A&M-Corpus Christi-17.6146.1
Long Island UniversityMerrimack-14.8141.1
McNeese StateNew Orleans20.4147.2
Michigan StateNorthwestern5.6140.8
Mississippi StateTexas A&M4.4141.6
Northwestern StateTexas A&M-Commerce0.2142.8
RadfordSouth Carolina Upstate3.0143.3
RichmondSaint Joseph’s6.4145.6
Sacred HeartWagner8.5138.7
San Jose StateUtah State-8.7146.1
Seton HallVillanova-3.1140.7
South CarolinaTennessee-10.8142.3
Southern IndianaTennessee State-4.7143.2
TCUWest Virginia5.8150.8


Mississippi State +2.5

Kentucky -17.5


AmericanLoyola (MD)-8.8126.9
Appalachian StateGeorgia State5.8141.4
Arizona StateUtah-21.2136.6
Arkansas StateLouisiana-4.6119.4
Ball StateKent State0.6133.3
Boston UniversityColgate-5.6127.4
Bowling Green StateWestern Michigan0.1131.3
BuffaloCentral Michigan17.1130.8
CaliforniaWashington State-10.2131.0
DaytonSt. Bonaventure9.8128.6
Eastern MichiganToledo-28.5125.0
Florida AtlanticTemple-12.1128.3
Gardner-WebbUNC Asheville-3.1133.2
Holy CrossLafayette13.3120.6
Houston ChristianLamar-27.9118.7
Incarnate WordTexas A&M-Corpus Christi-8.1122.2
LibertyMiddle Tennessee-10.8126.9
Louisiana TechSam Houston8.8130.4
Louisiana-MonroeGeorgia Southern5.0141.6
McNeese StateNew Orleans-16.8141.4
Miami (OH)Northern Illinois-1.8120.2
Morehead StateTennessee State3.7130.8
New OrleansMcNeese State16.8141.4
Northern IllinoisMiami (OH)1.8120.2
Northwestern StateTexas A&M-Commerce1.2135.3
Southern MississippiCoastal Carolina9.9130.9
Tennessee TechWestern Illinois-0.9137.7