College Basketball Best Bets from Matt Youmans

VSiN betting analyst and host of VSiN Tonight, Matt Youmans, shares his top college basketball picks for today, March 16.

San Diego State Aztecs (-2) vs. New Mexico Lobos

With broad shoulders and 240 pounds of mostly muscle packed on his 6-foot-9 frame, Jaedon LeDee carries the San Diego State basketball team on his back. He’s the definition of a power forward, the Karl Malone of the Mountain West.

 

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LeDee has been the most impressive player in the conference tournament in Las Vegas, scoring 34 points in the Aztecs’ quarterfinal victory over UNLV and adding 22 points Friday in a semifinal victory over top-seeded Utah State. He certainly appears strong enough to play three games in three days at a high level.

It’s not always pretty with San Diego State, and, in fact, it’s usually ugly. The Aztecs needed overtime to eliminate the Rebels on Thursday before digging a 17-point first-half deficit against the Aggies and rallying for an 86-70 win.

Brian Dutcher, who coached San Diego State to the NCAA championship game a year ago, has directed his team to the conference title game for the seventh straight year. The Aztecs’ winning pedigree and LeDee’s power around the basket should be enough to hold off a hot New Mexico team on Saturday.

Senior guard Jaelen House scored a total of 48 points in the Lobos’ tournament wins against Boise State and Colorado State. House is as elusive as a mouse, but he’ll run into more trouble against San Diego State’s physical defense.

At this point, it’s not going to be a surprise if the Mountain West sends six teams to the NCAA Tournament. The Lobos are probably in with Friday’s win. San Diego State and Utah State are locks. Boise State, Nevada and Colorado State also have NCAA-worthy credentials.

The Aztecs have a shortage of reliable shooters around LeDee and suffer through scoring droughts that will eventually lead to their downfall next week. However, defense, rebounding, toughness and big-game tournament experience should lift San Diego State in this title game.

College Basketball Best Bet: San Diego State -2

Purdue Boilermakers (-6) vs. Wisconsin Badgers

The Boilermakers are a lot more than 7-4 Zach Edey. It could be argued that sophomore point guard Braden Smith is equally as valuable to the Big Ten champions as Edey. Smith injured his right leg during the second half against Michigan State. While he returned to the game, hobbled through the pain and toughed it out, it’s fair to question the wisdom of Smith playing this weekend and risking a more serious injury.

Purdue won both regular-season meetings with the Badgers — by scores of 75-69 and 78-70 – and getting a three-game sweep will be difficult with Smith at something less than full speed. Wisconsin made 10 3-pointers Friday, when AJ Storr scored 30 points to put away Northwestern, and seems to be back in a groove after flopping in February.

College Basketball Best Bet: Wisconsin +6

Connecticut Huskies (-8.5) vs. Marquette Golden Eagles

Tyler Kolek, one of the nation’s top point guards, is out of the Big East tournament with an oblique injury. When Kolek was healthy and on the floor on Feb. 17, Marquette was massacred 81-53 at UConn. The Huskies simply have too much firepower, and it was all on display Friday when guards Tristen Newton (25 points, nine assists) and Cam Spencer (20 points, nine assists) led the way in a 95-90 victory over St. John’s at Madison Square Garden.

A year ago, Marquette eliminated UConn, the eventual NCAA champion, from the conference tournament. It’s payback time. Huskies coach Dan Hurley said his team would “treat it like it’s the Super Bowl,” so read between the lines and lay the points.

College Basketball Best Bet: UConn -8.5

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